911
FXUS61 KALY 051040
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
640 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH ISSUED FOR ULSTER, DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. THE SLIGHT
RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN EXPANDED ACROSS MORE OF THE
AREA FOR MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LIKELY ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY, CT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITHIN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES AND WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
WILL SLOWLY MOVE ALONG THIS FRONT BETWEEN LATE TODAY AND
TUESDAY. WITH THIS STAGNANT PATTERN IN PLACES, PERIODS OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND
SLOWLY DRIFT ACROSS OUR AREA FROM LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. SOME AREAS WILL SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A THREAT FOR EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO EXCEED 2 INCHES IN THE MID HUDSON
VALLEY, WITH LOWERING VALUES FURTHER TO THE NORTH. THE VALUES
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ARE ABOUT 150%-180% OF NORMAL, WHICH IS
ABOUT 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF
SIGNS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, INCLUDING A MOIST PROFILE
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN, SKINNY CAPE PROFILE, HIGH PWATS AND
SURFACE DEWPOINTS AND A HIGH FREEZING LEVEL, INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR WARM-RAIN PROCESSES AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL
PRODUCTION. RAINFALL RATES MAY EASILY EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR
WITHIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS SETUP. THE 00Z SPC
HREF PMM 3HR TOTALS SHOWS POCKETS OF 1-2 INCHES OF RAINFALL
WITHIN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF OUR SOUTHERN AREAS, WHICH ARE
IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS FOR AN ENSEMBLE. EVEN THE NBM HAS UP TO 30%
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS FOR 6-HR RAINFALL TOTALS EXCEEDING AN
INCH, WHICH IS ALSO NOTEWORTHY FOR BLENDED GUIDANCE.
CAMS SUGGEST PERIODS OF REPEATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
OCCUR ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN AREAS, ALTHOUGH THE EXACT NORTHERN
EXTENT DOES VARY WITHIN THE DIFFERENT GUIDANCE AND IT'S UNCLEAR
JUST HOW FAR NORTH THE STEADIER AND HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL GET.
THERE ARE ALSO DIFFERENCES SHOWING WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
TOTALS WILL BE. WHILE MANY MODELS SHOW BULLSEYES OF SEVERAL
INCHES OF RAINFALL, THEY VARY WHETHER THESE WILL BE WITHIN OR
JUST SOUTH OF OUR AREA. STILL, THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING TO
GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ULSTER, DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES. WPC HAS ALSO INCREASED THEIR DAY 2 (MON INTO MON
NIGHT) OUTLOOK TO INCLUDE A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4) OVER MUCH
OF SOUTHEASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED INCIDENTS OF FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR,
ESPECIALLY WITHIN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS. IT WON'T BE
SURPRISING FOR SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE NORTHEAST TO SEE A LOCALIZED
RAINFALL TOTAL IN EXCESS OF 5 INCHES WITH THIS SYSTEM, BUT IT'S
EXACT LOCATION IS STILL VERY UNKNOWN AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
FLYING CONDITIONS ARE GENERALLY VFR TO START THE DAY WITH SOME
BROKEN MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THERE WAS SOME MVFR MIST
OVERNIGHT AT KPOU, BUT THIS IS STARTING TO DISSIPATE.
DURING THE DAY TODAY, FLYING CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH MOST
OF THE DAY. BKN-OVC MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE WITH
SOME LOWER CLOUDS AROUND 5-7 BECOMING THICKER BY THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING HOURS. A FEW SHOWERS MAY SPREAD TOWARDS KPOU TOWARDS
SUNSET, WITH A BETTER CHANCE FOR A PERIOD OF STEADIER RAINFALL
THERE DURING TONIGHT. VISIBILITY MAY LOWER TO MVFR WITHIN ANY
SHOWERS NEAR KPOU THIS EVENING INTO THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. SOME
THUNDER CAN'T BE RULED OUT, BUT IT DOESN'T APPEAR WIDESPREAD
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN THE TAF JUST YET. LIGHT WINDS FROM THE EAST
ARE EXPECTED FOR TODAY.
RAINFALL WILL BECOME STEADIER AND HEAVIER AT KPOU DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z. SOME IFR CONDITIONS,
MAINLY FOR VISIBILITY, IS EXPECTED AT KPOU FOR THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS WITHIN MODERATE TO POSSIBLY HEAVY SHOWERS. MEANWHILE, THE
RAINFALL WILL BE SPREADING NORTHWARD, BUT IT WILL BE A SLOW
PROCESS. SOME SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO KPSF AND KALB TOWARDS
DAYBREAK. FOR NOW, WILL JUST ADDRESS WITH A VCSH FOR KALB AND A
FEW HOURS OF MVFR SHOWERS AT KPSF TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD. KGFL WILL BE FAR ENOUGH NORTH TO AVOID THE RAIN THROUGH
12Z MONDAY. WINDS FOR ALL SITES WILL BE VERY LIGHT OR CALM FROM
AN EAST TO SOUTHEAST DIRECTION.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ063>066.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...27
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