491
FXUS61 KALY 051831
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
231 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LIKELY ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY, CT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITHIN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
2) DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY. ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DRIFT ACROSS THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY SOME AREAS
WILL SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF
WHICH CAN FALL HEAVY AT TIMES, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A THREAT
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE VALUES
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ARE ABOUT 150%-180% OF NORMAL, WHICH IS
ABOUT 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF
SIGNS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, INCLUDING A MOIST PROFILE
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN, SKINNY CAPE PROFILE, HIGH PWATS AND A
HIGH FREEZING LEVEL, INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR WARM- RAIN
PROCESSES AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION. RAINFALL RATES MAY
EASILY EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SETUP. THE 12Z SPC HREF PMM 3HR TOTALS SHOWS POCKETS OF 1-2
INCHES OF RAINFALL WITHIN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS, WHICH ARE IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS FOR AN ENSEMBLE.
IT REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BEST CORRIDOR OF HEAVIEST RAIN
SETS UP BUT THE PROBABILITIES FOR THIS OCCURRING ARE HIGHEST
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS ULSTER, DUTCHESS
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES, WHERE A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS IN EFFECT. WPC HAS ALSO PLACED AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR MONDAY.
THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING CONCERNS TO EXPAND
THE FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD AT THIS TIME BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED. WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA, FLOODING OF URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES REMAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ALBANY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY WHERE REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
A DRIER DAY TO THE AREA WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LATER THIS WEEK
WITH AN UPTICK IN HUMIDITY LEVELS. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/MONDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON UNTIL AROUND 23Z/00Z THIS
EVENING. BROKEN AND OVERCAST MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS START TO
LOWER AFTER SUNRISE AS A STATIONARY FRONT AND SLOW MOVING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM BRING STRATIFORM RAIN ARRIVING FIRST AT KPOU AT
ABOUT 23Z. SHOWERS MAY START OFF REMAINING VFR BUT BECOME
STEADIER FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE NIGHT, LIKELY LOWERING TO
MVFR CONDITIONS ESPECIALLY AT KPOU AND KALB. THE HIGHEST
CONFIDENCE FOR IFR IS AT KPOU WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
LOWERING VIS AND CIGS. PERIODS OF LIFR CIGS ARE ALSO LIKELY.
KALB COULD ALSO SEE PERIODS OF IFR/LIFR AS LOW STRATUS EXTENDS
MORE NORTHWARD. KPSF AND KGFL SHOULD REMAIN OUTSIDE OF ANY OF
THE HEAVIER RAIN WITH JUST SOME LIGHTER SHOWERS MAKING IT THAT
FAR NORTH, HOWEVER KPSF AND KGFL COULD STILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
DURING THESE SHOWERS. CONDITIONS AT KPSF AND KGFL WILL BEGIN TO
IMPROVE FIRST TOWARDS THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS ALSO
A CHANCE OF MIST/FOG DEVELOPING IN VALLEY AREAS ESPECIALLY IN
AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN, THE BEST CHANCE OF IFR CONDITIONS AT
KALB, KPOU, AND KPSF. SHOWERS REMAIN AT KPOU AND POSSIBLY AT
KALB THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER
CAN'T BE RULED OUT THIS EVENING BUT IT DOESN'T APPEAR TO BE OF
HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. WINDS OUT OF THE
NORTHEAST/SOUTHEAST 4-8 KT THIS AFTERNOON BECOME GENERALLY 5 KT
OR LESS AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT. BY MORNING WINDS PICK BACK UP
WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KT OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST AT KGFL, KALB, AND KPSF
AND OUT OF THE NORTHEAST AT KPOU.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ063>066.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27/33
AVIATION...53
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