460
FXUS61 KALY 052337
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
737 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED LATE TODAY THROUGH EARLY
TUESDAY WITH THE HEAVIEST AMOUNTS LIKELY ACROSS THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY INTO LITCHFIELD COUNTY, CT. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY WITHIN URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS.
2) DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE STALLED JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION
OVER THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THIS FRONT THROUGH TUESDAY. ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED DRIFT ACROSS THE
REGION BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUING INTO TUESDAY SOME AREAS
WILL SEE REPEATED ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS, SOME OF
WHICH CAN FALL HEAVY AT TIMES, WHICH WILL ALLOW FOR A THREAT
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING.
PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 1.50 TO AROUND 2.00
INCHES TONIGHT AND CONTINUE INTO EARLY TUESDAY. THE VALUES
ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS ARE ABOUT 150%-180% OF NORMAL, WHICH IS
ABOUT 2 STD ABOVE NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF
SIGNS FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, INCLUDING A MOIST PROFILE
THROUGHOUT THE COLUMN, SKINNY CAPE PROFILE, HIGH PWATS AND A
HIGH FREEZING LEVEL, INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR WARM- RAIN
PROCESSES AND EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION. RAINFALL RATES MAY
EASILY EXCEED 1 INCH PER HOUR WITHIN THUNDERSTORMS WITH THIS
SETUP. THE 12Z SPC HREF PMM 3HR TOTALS SHOWS POCKETS OF 1-2
INCHES OF RAINFALL WITHIN THE HIGH TERRAIN OF OUR SOUTHERN
AREAS, WHICH ARE IMPRESSIVE AMOUNTS FOR AN ENSEMBLE.
IT REMAINS UNCERTAINTY WHERE THE BEST CORRIDOR OF HEAVIEST RAIN
SETS UP BUT THE PROBABILITIES FOR THIS OCCURRING ARE HIGHEST
FOR AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY, ESPECIALLY ACROSS ULSTER, DUTCHESS
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES, WHERE A FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS IN EFFECT. WPC HAS ALSO PLACED AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY IN
A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2 OF 4) FOR MONDAY.
THERE WAS NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN FLOODING CONCERNS TO EXPAND
THE FLOOD WATCH NORTHWARD AT THIS TIME BUT TRENDS WILL BE
MONITORED. WITHIN THE SLIGHT RISK AREA, FLOODING OF URBAN AND
POOR DRAINAGE AREAS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF
1 TO 3 INCHES REMAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ALBANY THROUGH TUESDAY
WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY WHERE REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN OCCUR.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
NEARLY ZONAL FLOW RETURNS TO THE REGION FOR THE MID TO LATE WEEK
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL BRING
A DRIER DAY TO THE AREA WITH NEAR SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LATER THIS WEEK
WITH AN UPTICK IN HUMIDITY LEVELS. AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM AND COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASED CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AS WELL.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/TUESDAY, A FRONTAL SYSTEM LOCATED SOUTH OF THE TAF
SITES WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
TRACK ALONG IT. ONE WAVE WILL PASS BY LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY,
WHILE ANOTHER ONE APPROACHES LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON. AS THEY
PASS, SHOWERS WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD, WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND
A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT KPOU, WITH SOME
SHOWERS OCCASIONALLY REACHING KALB AND KPSF. AT KGFL, MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED, HOWEVER A FEW SHOWERS COULD PASS BY
LATER TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING WILL OCCASIONALLY
BECOME MVFR/IFR (MAINLY CIGS) AT KPOU AND KPSF OVERNIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY, WITH THE MOST PERSISTENT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
(MAINLY CIGS) EXPECTED AT KPOU. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED FARTHER NORTH AT KALB AND KGFL, THOUGH A FEW PERIODS OF
MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE AT KALB LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING.
WINDS WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT/VARIABLE OVERNIGHT EXCEPT SOUTHEAST
TO SOUTH 5-10 KT AT KALB. ON MONDAY, WINDS WILL BECOME EAST TO
SOUTHEAST EXCEPT NORTHEAST AT KPOU WITH SPEEDS OF 5-10 KT. SOME
GUSTS OF 15-20 KT COULD OCCUR AT KPSF IN THE AFTERNOON. LOW
LEVEL WIND SHEAR IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT KPSF LATER IN THE DAY AS
WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL INCREASE FROM THE EAST SOUTHEAST TO
30-35 KT.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
CTZ001-013.
NY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 AM EDT MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR
NYZ063>066.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27/33
AVIATION...24
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