802
FXUS61 KALY 060604
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
204 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR TODAY/TONIGHT HAS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS, ALTHOUGH THE MODERATE CATEGORY
IS VERY CLOSE TO DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. NBM AND WPC
QPF CONTINUE TO SHOW 1-3" OF RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN AREAS, WITH
SOME LOCALIZED TOTALS EXCEEDING 3" POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.
LATEST CAMS SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL MAY BE DONE BY THIS
EVENING AND MOVING OFF TO THE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND, WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA FOR TONIGHT. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH
IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BUT COULD POTENTIALLY NEED TO
TRIM THE END TIME BACK IF THE TRENDS IN CAMS CONTINUE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ULSTER, DUTCHESS
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY WITHIN
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
2) DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE SURFACE MAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES, EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL OHIO ALONG
THE PA/MD BORDER AND TOWARDS NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY. ALTHOUGH WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY, THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STALLED IN PLACE FOR
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA SINCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
HAD BEEN SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY EVENING, BUT MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY LATELY HAS NOT HAD THUNDER. ALTHOUGH THE BEST
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER EASTERN
PA/NJ, THERE HAVE BEEN BURSTS OF MODERATE RAINFALL AT TIMES.
MRMS HAS BEEN SUGGESTING RAINFALL RATES UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH
ACROSS SOUTHERN ULSTER COUNTY, ALTHOUGH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL RATES HAVE NOT BEEN FAR AWAY ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY,
WHERE NYS MESONET STATION AT OTISVILLE IS SUGGESTING HAS
REPORTED OVER FIVE INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE 9 PM LAST EVENING.
PWAT VALUES WERE REPORTED TO BE AROUND 1.50" AT THE 00Z KALY
SOUNDING. KOKX SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.89" AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST
VALUES WILL REACH UP TO AROUND 2.00" ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE VALUES ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS ARE ABOUT 150%-180% OF NORMAL, WHICH IS ABOUT 2
STD ABOVE NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF SIGNS
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, INCLUDING A MOIST PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN, SKINNY CAPE PROFILE, HIGH PWATS AND A HIGH FREEZING
LEVEL, INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR WARM-RAIN PROCESSES AND
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION.
BASED OFF THE LATEST CAMS, ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP AND SOME
SHOWERS MAY GET AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL REGION AND I-90 FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHERN 3 COUNTIES (ULSTER, DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD). WHILE
THERE MAY BE SOME HEAVIER BURSTS WITH THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING, ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BASED OFF THE LATEST 3KM HRRR.
WITHIN THIS RAINFALL, RATES MAY EXCEED ONE INCH PER HOUR. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN URBAN, POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ROAD CLOSURES
DUE TO FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA.
BASED OFF THIS, WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE AND WILL NOT
NEED TO EXTEND ANY FURTHER NORTH. WPC HAS ALSO PLACED THE
SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES
AND NW CT IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2 OF
4) FOR TODAY, ALTHOUGH THE MODERATE AREA IS VERY CLOSE TO OUR
COUNTY WARNING AREA, JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES REMAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ALBANY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY WHERE REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN OCCUR, SUCH AS
FAR SOUTHERN DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THE LATEST NBM
SHOWS POCKETS OF 4-5" IN THOSE AREAS, WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AT
THIS TIME.
BASED OFF THE LATEST GUIDANCE, THE STEADIEST SHOWERS MAY BE
ENDING THIS EVENING, AS THEY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND FOR TONIGHT. THIS
COULD POTENTIALLY ALLOW US TO END THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLY,
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE MORE GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS
LATER TODAY BEFORE MAKING THAT DECISION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY EXITS OFF
TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRIER AND MORE QUIET
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
CLOUDY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR EARLY THIS WEEK, THERE SHOULD BE A
RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE 80S
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING UPPER 80S POSSIBLE IN VALLEY AREAS ONCE AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, IT WILL BE A NOTICEABLE WARMUP. DESPITE THE
WARMER WEATHER, IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY RAIN-FREE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS COULD SEE A
LATE DAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR THURSDAY EVENING.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
A LARGE AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL IS CURRENTLY
IMPACTING MUCH OF NJ AND DOWNSTATE NY AND THIS IS LIFTING
NORTHEAST. KPOU HAS BEEN STARTING TO SEE SOME OF THIS RAINFALL,
WITH MVFR VISIBILITY BEING REPORTED. BASED ON UPSTREAM
OBSERVATIONS, WILL ANTICIPATE SOME LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS THERE
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH SOME IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO BASED ON THIS EXPECTATION. FURTHER NORTH, SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS MAY GET CLOSE TO KALB/KPSF OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS, BUT IT WILL BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE TIME. CAN'T RULE SOME
BRIEF MVFR SHOWERS AT KPSF, BUT KALB SHOULD STAY VFR, WITH NO
PRECIP EXPECTED AT KGFL, KEEPING VFR CONDITIONS THERE WITH JUST
BKN-OVC HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. THROUGH THE REST OF THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS, LIGHT EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL BE 5 KTS OR LESS.
DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY, STEADY LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL
CONTINUE FOR KPOU WITH MVFR CONDITIONS. ANOTHER PERIOD OF IFR
VISIBILITY IS POSSIBLE THERE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ONCE
AGAIN, WITH SOME EMBEDDED HEAVIER BURSTS. MEANWHILE, THE OTHER
SITES WILL BE MAINLY DRY, BUT CAN'T RULE OUT SOME PASSING
SHOWERS AT KALB AND KPSF, WITH PERHAPS SOME ADDITIONAL MVFR
VISIBILITY AT KPSF ONCE AGAIN BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ALL SITES
WILL BE SEEING GRADUALLY LOWERING CEILINGS, SO EVEN OUTSIDE OF
RAIN, MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED AT KALB AND KPSF BY LATE IN THE
DAY. KGFL WILL CONTINUE TO BE DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS. SOME LLWS
IS POSSIBLE FOR KPSF AND KPOU DURING THE DAY, WITH 2 KFT WINDS
AROUND 35-40 KTS FROM A SOUTHEASTERLY DIRECTION.
RAINFALL WILL START TO TAPER OFF FOR ALL SITES ON MONDAY NIGHT.
FLYING CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY STILL BE MVFR FOR SITES THANKS TO
LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE KEEPING LOW CEILINGS AROUND,
ALTHOUGH KGFL SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE THE EXCEPTION AND REMAIN
VFR. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT TO CALM FOR ALL SITES.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ063>066.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...27
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