975
FXUS61 KALY 061807
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
207 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK FOR TODAY/TONIGHT HAS A SLIGHT
RISK FOR OUR SOUTHEASTERN AREAS, ALTHOUGH THE MODERATE CATEGORY
IS VERY CLOSE TO DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. NBM AND WPC
QPF CONTINUE TO SHOW 1-3" OF RAINFALL FOR SOUTHERN AREAS, WITH
SOME LOCALIZED TOTALS EXCEEDING 3" POSSIBLE ACROSS FAR SOUTHERN
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.
LATEST CAMS SUGGEST THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL MAY BE DONE BY THIS
EVENING AND MOVING OFF TO THE EAST INTO NEW ENGLAND, WITH DRIER
CONDITIONS FOR OUR AREA FOR TONIGHT. WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH
IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BUT COULD POTENTIALLY NEED TO
TRIM THE END TIME BACK IF THE TRENDS IN CAMS CONTINUE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS, SOME WITH
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL, WILL CONTINUE ACROSS ULSTER, DUTCHESS
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES THROUGH THIS EVENING. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR, ESPECIALLY WITHIN
URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
2) DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE SURFACE MAP CONTINUES TO SHOW A STATIONARY BOUNDARY LOCATED
OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES, EXTENDING FROM CENTRAL OHIO ALONG
THE PA/MD BORDER AND TOWARDS NORTHERN DELAWARE AND SOUTHERN NEW
JERSEY. ALTHOUGH WEAK WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE WILL SLIDE ALONG
THIS BOUNDARY, THE FRONT WILL LIKELY REMAIN STALLED IN PLACE FOR
TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT.
PERIODS OF SHOWERS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS THE FAR SOUTHERN
PARTS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA SINCE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THERE
HAD BEEN SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY EVENING, BUT MOST
OF THE ACTIVITY LATELY HAS NOT HAD THUNDER. ALTHOUGH THE BEST
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE GENERALLY SOUTH OF THE AREA OVER EASTERN
PA/NJ, THERE HAVE BEEN BURSTS OF MODERATE RAINFALL AT TIMES.
MRMS HAS BEEN SUGGESTING RAINFALL RATES UP TO A THIRD OF AN INCH
ACROSS SOUTHERN ULSTER COUNTY, ALTHOUGH THE MORE SIGNIFICANT
RAINFALL RATES HAVE NOT BEEN FAR AWAY ACROSS ORANGE COUNTY,
WHERE NYS MESONET STATION AT OTISVILLE IS SUGGESTING HAS
REPORTED OVER FIVE INCHES OF RAINFALL SINCE 9 PM LAST EVENING.
PWAT VALUES WERE REPORTED TO BE AROUND 1.50" AT THE 00Z KALY
SOUNDING. KOKX SHOWED A PWAT OF 1.89" AND GUIDANCE SUGGEST
VALUES WILL REACH UP TO AROUND 2.00" ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF
THE COUNTY WARNING AREA DURING THE DAY TODAY. THE VALUES ACROSS
SOUTHERN AREAS ARE ABOUT 150%-180% OF NORMAL, WHICH IS ABOUT 2
STD ABOVE NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING PLENTY OF SIGNS
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL, INCLUDING A MOIST PROFILE THROUGHOUT THE
COLUMN, SKINNY CAPE PROFILE, HIGH PWATS AND A HIGH FREEZING
LEVEL, INDICATING THE POTENTIAL FOR WARM-RAIN PROCESSES AND
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PRODUCTION.
BASED OFF THE LATEST CAMS, ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THERE IS
SOME QUESTION ABOUT THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF THE PRECIP AND SOME
SHOWERS MAY GET AS FAR NORTH AS THE CAPITAL REGION AND I-90 FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING AND THEN AGAIN LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, THE MODERATE TO HEAVY SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER
THE SOUTHERN 3 COUNTIES (ULSTER, DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD). WHILE
THERE MAY BE SOME HEAVIER BURSTS WITH THIS ONGOING ACTIVITY FOR
EARLY THIS MORNING, ANOTHER ROUND OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IS
ANTICIPATED FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BASED OFF THE LATEST 3KM HRRR.
WITHIN THIS RAINFALL, RATES MAY EXCEED ONE INCH PER HOUR. THIS
WILL RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR FLASH FLOODING, ESPECIALLY
WITHIN URBAN, POOR DRAINAGE AND LOW LYING AREAS. ROAD CLOSURES
DUE TO FLOODING CAN BE EXPECTED FOR PARTS OF THE WATCH AREA.
BASED OFF THIS, WILL KEEP THE FLOOD WATCH IN PLACE AND WILL NOT
NEED TO EXTEND ANY FURTHER NORTH. WPC HAS ALSO PLACED THE
SOUTHEASTERN CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES
AND NW CT IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL (LEVEL 2 OF
4) FOR TODAY, ALTHOUGH THE MODERATE AREA IS VERY CLOSE TO OUR
COUNTY WARNING AREA, JUST OFF TO THE SOUTH. TOTAL RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES REMAIN POSSIBLE SOUTH OF ALBANY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH LOCALIZED AMOUNTS IN EXCESS OF 3 INCHES POSSIBLE,
ESPECIALLY WHERE REPEATED ROUNDS OF HEAVY RAIN OCCUR, SUCH AS
FAR SOUTHERN DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THE LATEST NBM
SHOWS POCKETS OF 4-5" IN THOSE AREAS, WHICH SEEMS PLAUSIBLE AT
THIS TIME.
BASED OFF THE LATEST GUIDANCE, THE STEADIEST SHOWERS MAY BE
ENDING THIS EVENING, AS THEY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST INTO NEW
ENGLAND. THIS COULD ALLOW FOR A DRYING TREND FOR TONIGHT. THIS
COULD POTENTIALLY ALLOW US TO END THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLY,
BUT WILL CONTINUE TO EVALUATE MORE GUIDANCE AND RADAR TRENDS
LATER TODAY BEFORE MAKING THAT DECISION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE STALLED BOUNDARY EXITS OFF
TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY, HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION FROM THE WEST. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR DRIER AND MORE QUIET
WEATHER FOR TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MUCH OF THURSDAY. ALTHOUGH THE
CLOUDY AND COOLER WEATHER FOR EARLY THIS WEEK, THERE SHOULD BE A
RETURN TO WARMER TEMPERATURES. HIGHS WILL BE BACK INTO THE 80S
FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, WITH THE LATEST NBM GUIDANCE
SUGGESTING UPPER 80S POSSIBLE IN VALLEY AREAS ONCE AGAIN BY
THURSDAY. WHILE HEAT INDEX VALUES APPEAR TO REMAIN BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA, IT WILL BE A NOTICEABLE WARMUP. DESPITE THE
WARMER WEATHER, IT SHOULD BE FAIRLY RAIN-FREE FOR TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY, ALTHOUGH FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS COULD SEE A
LATE DAY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM FOR THURSDAY EVENING.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS START OFF THIS TAF PERIOD
AT KGFL AND KALB, ALTHOUGH KALB COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS THROUGOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KPOU AND KPSF ARE
UNDER BKN-OVC MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT RAIN REDUCING
VIS AT KPOU TO MVFR. HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT KPOU, WHICH COULD DROP
CIGS/VIS TO IFR AT TIMES. DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS HEAVER PRECIPITATION MOVES FARTHER NORTH. KGFL COULD
SEE BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS, WHILE KALB FALLS TO
MVFR (WITH BRIEF DROPS TO IFR) AROUND MIDNIGHT. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KPOU AND KPSF THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH KPSF EXPECTED TO GET SOME HEAVIER POCKETS
OF RAIN THAT WILL FURTHER REDUCE CIGS/VIS AT TIMES. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TOMORROW MORNING AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT OF
THE REGION, WITH KGFL AND KALB RETURNING TO VFR, WHILE KPOU AND
KPSF REMAIN UNDER MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KTS START OFF
THIS PERIOD AT KGFL AND KALB, PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHERLY TUESDAY MORNING. EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT KPOU AND KPSF THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH FREQUENT MODERATE GUSTS AROUND 15
KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ065-066.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...23
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