792
FXUS61 KALY 061854
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
254 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE HEAVIEST RAIN CONTINUES TO REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING IS DECREASING. HOWEVER, SOME MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS REMAINS POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ULSTER COUNTY BUT
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREA INTO
THIS EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE I-90 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT. MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT THE OVERALL FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS DECREASING.
2) DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK
WITH CHANGES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG THE FRONT. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS, THOUGH THE HEAVIEST
RAIN HAS REMAINED JUST TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY INTO NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND. TRENDS CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO FALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA,
THOUGH SOME BURSTS OF MORE MODERATE RAIN MAY CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. WITH THE REDUCTION IN
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND LACK OF INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS, THE OVERALL FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO BE
DECREASING ACROSS OUR AREA. STILL, SOME MINOR FLOODING OR URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS REMAINS POSSIBLE. PER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES, THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
ULSTER COUNTY BUT CONTINUES ACROSS DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES WERE SOME MINOR FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE.
BY THIS EVENING, MOST OF THE CAMS SHOW BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE I-90 CORRIDOR FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE A DRY SLOT MOVES IN FOR FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
CAUSE ANY IMPACTS. SOME WRAP AROUND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHOULD THESE TRENDS CONTINUE, THE FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ABLE TO END
EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT END TIME OF LATE TUESDAY MORNING FOR
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH IS EXPECTED FOR
MOST AREAS WITH UP TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES ACROSS LITCHFIELD
COUNTY. WHERE ANY STATIONARY BANDS OF MODERATE RAIN SET UP, SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN OCCUR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
LOOK TO REMAIN LESS THAN 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY AND SEASONABLE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETURN
OF SUNSHINE. CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOME VALLEY AREAS. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO APPROACH THE MID-90S FOR SOME VALLEY AREAS.
THEREAFTER, ANOTHER SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY... VFR CONDITIONS START OFF THIS TAF PERIOD
AT KGFL AND KALB, ALTHOUGH KALB COULD SEE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CIGS THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. KPOU AND KPSF ARE
UNDER BKN-OVC MVFR CIGS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT RAIN REDUCING
VIS AT KPOU TO MVFR. HEAVIER POCKETS OF RAIN ARE POSSIBLE
THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AT KPOU, WHICH COULD DROP
CIGS/VIS TO IFR AT TIMES. DETERIORATION OF CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED ACROSS ALL TERMINALS AS WE HEAD INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS AS HEAVER PRECIPITATION MOVES FARTHER NORTH. KGFL COULD
SEE BRIEF DROPS TO MVFR IN LIGHT SHOWERS, WHILE KALB FALLS TO
MVFR (WITH BRIEF DROPS TO IFR) AROUND MIDNIGHT. MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST AT KPOU AND KPSF THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH KPSF EXPECTED TO GET SOME HEAVIER POCKETS
OF RAIN THAT WILL FURTHER REDUCE CIGS/VIS AT TIMES. CONDITIONS
WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE TOMORROW MORNING AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT OF
THE REGION, WITH KGFL AND KALB RETURNING TO VFR, WHILE KPOU AND
KPSF REMAIN UNDER MVFR CIGS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTHEASTERLY TO EASTERLY LIGHT WINDS UNDER 10 KTS START OFF
THIS PERIOD AT KGFL AND KALB, PERSISTING INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS BEFORE SHIFTING NORTHERLY TUESDAY MORNING. EASTERLY TO
NORTHEASTERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AT KPOU AND KPSF THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE TAF PERIOD, WITH FREQUENT MODERATE GUSTS AROUND 15
KTS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ065-066.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...23
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