491
FXUS61 KALY 062346
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
746 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE HEAVIEST RAIN CONTINUES TO REMAIN JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE
AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS A RESULT, THE THREAT FOR FLASH
FLOODING IS DECREASING. HOWEVER, SOME MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS REMAINS POSSIBLE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR ULSTER COUNTY BUT
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS SOUTHERN AREA INTO
THIS EVENING BEFORE LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE I-90 CORRIDOR
OVERNIGHT. MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS
REMAINS POSSIBLE FOR PORTIONS OF DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS BUT THE OVERALL FLASH FLOOD
THREAT IS DECREASING.
2) DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK
WITH CHANGES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG THE FRONT. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS, THOUGH THE HEAVIEST
RAIN HAS REMAINED JUST TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY INTO NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND. TRENDS CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO FALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA,
THOUGH SOME BURSTS OF MORE MODERATE RAIN MAY CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. WITH THE REDUCTION IN
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND LACK OF INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS, THE OVERALL FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO BE
DECREASING ACROSS OUR AREA. STILL, SOME MINOR FLOODING OR URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS REMAINS POSSIBLE. PER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES, THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
ULSTER COUNTY BUT CONTINUES ACROSS DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES WERE SOME MINOR FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE.
BY THIS EVENING, MOST OF THE CAMS SHOW BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE I-90 CORRIDOR FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE A DRY SLOT MOVES IN FOR FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
CAUSE ANY IMPACTS. SOME WRAP AROUND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHOULD THESE TRENDS CONTINUE, THE FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ABLE TO END
EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT END TIME OF LATE TUESDAY MORNING FOR
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH IS EXPECTED FOR
MOST AREAS WITH UP TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES ACROSS LITCHFIELD
COUNTY. WHERE ANY STATIONARY BANDS OF MODERATE RAIN SET UP, SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN OCCUR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
LOOK TO REMAIN LESS THAN 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY AND SEASONABLE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETURN
OF SUNSHINE. CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOME VALLEY AREAS. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO APPROACH THE MID-90S FOR SOME VALLEY AREAS.
THEREAFTER, ANOTHER SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/WED, FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REMAIN STALLED SOUTH OF THE
TAF SITES AS ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE TRACKS ALONG THE FRONT
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. AS THE WAVE APPROACHES, AREAS OF LIGHT RAIN
AND DRIZZLE WILL EXPAND NORTHWARD OVERNIGHT, BEFORE SHIFTING
EAST OF THE REGION TUESDAY AFTERNOON. KGFL SHOULD REMAIN VFR
THROUGH THIS EVENING BEFORE CIGS LOWER TO MVFR LATER TONIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING ALONG WITH SOME SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS. KALB WILL HAVE OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN DEVELOPING THIS
EVENING AND PERSISTING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WITH DEVELOPING
MVFR CIGS OCCASIONAL MVFR VSBYS. CLOSER TO THE FRONT AND
PASSING WAVE, KPOU AND KPSF WILL REMAIN MAINLY MVFR OVERNIGHT
THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN. A FEW PERIODS OF IFR VSBYS/CIGS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE AT THESE SITES. ALL SITES SHOULD GRADUALLY BECOME VFR
TOWARD 00Z/WED AS CIGS LIFT TO 3500-5000 FT AGL.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS THIS EVENING WILL BECOME EAST TO NORTHEAST
LATER TONIGHT AT 5-10 KT, THEN NORTHEAST TO NORTH AT SAME SPEEDS
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS OF 15-20 KT COULD
OCCUR AT KPSF OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLOOD WATCH THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING FOR NYZ065-066.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...24
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