288
FXUS61 KALY 070602
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
202 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE FLOOD WATCH FOR DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES WAS
CANCELED.
WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR A CORRIDOR OF RAIN THAT WILL
LIKELY BECOME FOCUSED AROUND I-90 IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY, CAPITAL
DISTRICT INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN CAN RESULT IN POOR
DRAINAGE FLOODING IN URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS AND REDUCED
VISIBILITY DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERIODS OF SHOWERS CENTERED AROUND THE I-90 CORRIDOR TONIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING WILL PRODUCE MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES. THIS CAN RESULT IN MINOR FLOODING OF URBAN AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING COMMUTE.
2) DRIER WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH
TEMPERATURES TRENDING BACK ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN LATER THIS WEEK
WITH CHANGES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A STATIONARY BOUNDARY REMAINS POSITIONED ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE TRACK ALONG THE FRONT. PERIODS OF
SHOWERS CONTINUE FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS, THOUGH THE HEAVIEST
RAIN HAS REMAINED JUST TO THE SOUTH ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON
VALLEY INTO NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND. TRENDS CONTINUE TO
FAVOR THE HEAVIEST RAIN TO FALL JUST TO THE SOUTH OF OUR AREA,
THOUGH SOME BURSTS OF MORE MODERATE RAIN MAY CONTINUE TO LIFT
NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, MAINLY ACROSS
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. WITH THE REDUCTION IN
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AND LACK OF INSTABILITY AND CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS, THE OVERALL FLASH FLOOD THREAT APPEARS TO BE
DECREASING ACROSS OUR AREA. STILL, SOME MINOR FLOODING OR URBAN
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS REMAINS POSSIBLE. PER COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING OFFICES, THE FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN CANCELLED FOR
ULSTER COUNTY BUT CONTINUES ACROSS DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES WERE SOME MINOR FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE.
BY THIS EVENING, MOST OF THE CAMS SHOW BANDS OF RAIN SHOWERS
SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHWARD TOWARD THE I-90 CORRIDOR FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHILE A DRY SLOT MOVES IN FOR FAR SOUTHERN
AREAS. THE RAIN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT WILL NOT BE HEAVY ENOUGH TO
CAUSE ANY IMPACTS. SOME WRAP AROUND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE
INTO TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON.
SHOULD THESE TRENDS CONTINUE, THE FLOOD WATCH MAY BE ABLE TO END
EARLIER THAN THE CURRENT END TIME OF LATE TUESDAY MORNING FOR
DUTCHESS AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF LESS THAN 1 INCH IS EXPECTED FOR
MOST AREAS WITH UP TO AROUND 1.50 INCHES ACROSS LITCHFIELD
COUNTY. WHERE ANY STATIONARY BANDS OF MODERATE RAIN SET UP, SOME
LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS CAN OCCUR. RAINFALL AMOUNTS GENERALLY
LOOK TO REMAIN LESS THAN 1 INCH PER HOUR THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY WHICH WILL
ALLOW FOR A DRY AND SEASONABLE DAY ON WEDNESDAY WITH THE RETURN
OF SUNSHINE. CLEARING SKIES TUESDAY NIGHT SHOULD ALLOW FOR
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOME VALLEY AREAS. TEMPERATURES
REBOUND TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY ALONG WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY. TRENDS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR HEAT
INDEX VALUES TO APPROACH THE MID-90S FOR SOME VALLEY AREAS.
THEREAFTER, ANOTHER SYSTEM AND FRONT WILL BRING THE NEXT
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS LATE THURSDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
LIGHT SHOWERS CONTINUE AT ALB, PSF AND POU TONIGHT AS A BOUNDARY
LIFTS TOWARDS THE I-90 CORRIDOR. MVFR CIGS AND VIS AT POU AND
PSF WILL LIKELY PERSIST OVERNIGHT. CIGS AT ALB LIKELY BECOME
MVFR 07 - 10 UTC AS RAIN BECOMES STEADIER WITH VIS TRENDING TO
MVFR AND EVEN IFR AS RAIN TURNS MODERATE. INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP
FOR IFR VIS AT ALB FROM 10 TO 14 UTC/TUES WHEN THERE IS THE
HIGHEST CHANCE FOR MODERATE RAIN. THERE IS UNCERTAINTY IF
SHOWERS WILL REACH GFL SO ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO GROUP FROM 10 TO
14 UTC WHEN THERE IS HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SHOWERS TO REACH THE
SITE.
STEADY RAIN TURNS LIGHTER BY 15 - 17 UTC WITH VIS LIKELY
IMPROVING BACK TO MVFR AND EVEN VFR WITH CIGS TRENDING BACK TO
VFR. ALL SITES SHOULD BECOME VFR BY 18 - 21 UTC AS RAIN EXITS
WITH SKIES CLEARING OVERNIGHT. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING AFTER 06 UTC AND WE WILL ADDRESS THIS IN THE
NEXT TAF UPDATE.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS TONIGHT BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST AROUND
5-9KTS TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. A FEW GUSTS OF 15-20
KT COULD OCCUR AT KPSF TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...31
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