970
FXUS61 KALY 071901
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
301 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS AFTERNOON, NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGES WERE MADE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) PERSISTENT SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO DRYING
CONDITIONS THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN BEGINNING TOMORROW, THOUGH
LOWER HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW DANGEROUS LEVELS
IN MOST PLACES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
3) THE NEXT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY AND POTENTIALLY
FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CURRENTLY SPINNING SOUTH OF THE
MASSACHUSETTS COASTLINE BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH AND EASTWARD FARTHER INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC THROUGH TONIGHT. BEFORE DRY CONDITIONS ARE FULLY
REINFORCED ACROSS THE REGION, HOWEVER, SCATTERED WRAP AROUND
SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, MAINLY IN PORTIONS
OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT; MID-HUDSON VALLEY; TACONICS; AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, AS THE SYSTEM SLOWS IN ITS PROGRESSION.
MOST OF THE RESULTING RAIN WILL BE LIGHT IN NATURE WITH
ADDITIONAL RAINFALL EXPECTED TO AMOUNT TO ABOUT 0.25" OR LESS.
THEREFORE, THERE ARE NO CONCERNS OF FLOODING OUTSIDE OF NUISANCE
PONDING IN URBAN AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE SWIFTLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM TONIGHT, REINFORCING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
THAT SAID, HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOW ENOUGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AS TO NOT POSE ANY RISKS OF
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. A FEW DEGREES WORTH OF WARMING THURSDAY
WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY CHALLENGE OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA,
PARTICULARLY THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS ELEMENT OF THE FORECAST. IN FACT, THE
LATEST LREF INDICATES A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE FOR HEAT INDICES
GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 95F THURSDAY. SEASONABLE TO JUST ABOVE
SEASONABLE WARMTH WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THURSDAY AND
POTENTIALLY FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF BOUNDARIES TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY PERTAINING TO THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSIONS. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT OUR INSTABILITY FOR FRIDAY. AND WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH IN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, MEDIUM-RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 25-30KT OF BULK
SHEAR HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ORGANIZATION OF ANY
DEVELOPING STORMS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... KGFL STARTS OFF THIS TAF PERIOD IN VFR
CONDITIONS, WHILE A MIX OF RAIN AND MIST BRINGS MVFR CIGS AND
VIS TO KALB AND IFR CONDITIONS TO KPOU AND KPSF. RAIN SHOWERS
WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING,
ALLOWING FOR A TEMPORARY RETURN TO VFR/MVFR AT ALL TERMINALS.
CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT WILL PROMOTE MIST/FOG AT ALL TERMINALS,
BRINGING CIG/VIS CATEGORIES BACK DOWN TO IFR OVERNIGHT INTO
EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE AFTER SUNRISE
TOMORROW, WITH CLEAR SKIES PERSISTING AND VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS.
NORTHERLY TO NORTHEASTERLY WINDS PREVAIL AT THE START OF THIS
PERIOD, WITH SOME MODERATE GUSTS AT KPSF. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
WEAKEN INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE.
THIS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD AT KALB,
KPOU, AND KPSF, WHILE KGFL WILL START TO SEE SOUTHERLY WINDS
IN THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SCATTERED SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...23
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page