700
FXUS61 KALY 080541
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
141 AM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MENTIONING THE SHOWERS HAVE ENDED AND PATCHY TO AREAS OF FOG
DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE SHOWERS ENDED WITH PATCHY TO AREAS OF VALLEY MIST AND FOG
DEVELOPING TONIGHT.
2) TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO WARM AGAIN BEGINNING TOMORROW, THOUGH
LOWER HUMIDITY WILL LIKELY KEEP HEAT INDICES BELOW DANGEROUS LEVELS
IN MOST PLACES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
3) THE NEXT CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS COME THURSDAY AND POTENTIALLY
FRIDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE AWAY FROM CAPE COD LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE RIDGING IN OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND TONIGHT. THE CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO ERODE FROM THE I-90
CORRIDOR SOUTH AND EAST OVERNIGHT. PATCHY TO AREAS OF
RADIATIONAL MIST/FOG WILL FORM WITH CLEAR/CLEARING SKIES, RECENT
WET GROUND AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH OVER THE
REGION TONIGHT. SOME OF THE FOG MAY BE LOCALLY DENSE IN THE
VALLEY AREAS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HIGH PRESSURE SWIFTLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM TONIGHT, REINFORCING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. DRY AND PLEASANT
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY
MORNING WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING TO AND JUST ABOVE NORMAL.
THAT SAID, HIGHS TOMORROW WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S
WITH LOW ENOUGH LEVELS OF HUMIDITY AS TO NOT POSE ANY RISKS OF
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. A FEW DEGREES WORTH OF WARMING THURSDAY
WITH HIGHER DEWPOINTS MAY CHALLENGE OUR HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA,
PARTICULARLY THROUGHOUT PORTIONS OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN THIS ELEMENT OF THE FORECAST. IN FACT, THE
LATEST LREF INDICATES A LESS THAN 10% CHANCE FOR HEAT INDICES
GREATER THAN OR EQUAL TO 95F THURSDAY. SEASONABLE TO JUST ABOVE
SEASONABLE WARMTH WILL THEN CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
THE NEXT BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR CONVECTION WILL BE THURSDAY AND
POTENTIALLY FRIDAY AS A SERIES OF BOUNDARIES TRACK THROUGH THE
REGION. THERE CONTINUES TO BE SOME UNCERTAINTY PERTAINING TO THE
TIMING OF THE BOUNDARY PROGRESSIONS. HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS LOOKS TO BE THURSDAY AS
CLOUDS MAY LIMIT OUR INSTABILITY FOR FRIDAY. AND WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS NOT YET HIGH IN THE SEVERE POTENTIAL, MEDIUM-RANGE
GUIDANCE SUGGESTING 500-1000 J/KG OF CAPE AND 25-30KT OF BULK
SHEAR HINT AT THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME ORGANIZATION OF ANY
DEVELOPING STORMS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OVER THE COMING
DAYS.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THU...SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR TONIGHT WITH
RADIATIONAL FOG ALREADY UNDERWAY AT KGFL WITH VIS BOUNCING
BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR. WHILE ALB AND PSF REMAIN VFR, THE LOW DEW
POINT DEPRESSIONS INDICATE FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP NOW THROUGH
08 UTC WITH IFR VIS/CIGS PERSISTING FOR 1 TO 3 HOURS BEFORE THE
MORNING SUN BURNS IT OFF. LESS CONFIDENCE AT POU WHERE CLOUDS
HAVE LINGERED SO ONLY SHOW A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR VIS/CIGS FROM
07 - 11 UTC. THEN, HIGH PRESSURE TODAY WILL QUICKLY RESULT IN
CLEARING CONDITIONS AND VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING BY 12 - 13 UTC.
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD AT ALL SITES. ADDITIONAL FOG MAY REDEVELOP AGAIN
TONIGHT, HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT GFL, GIVEN INCREASING HUMIDITY
AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ONCE AGAIN.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...31
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