283
FXUS61 KALY 081919
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
319 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR A FEW STORMS THAT COULD BECOME SEVERE.
PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
2) HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD BACK IN FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY FOR MINOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS.
AFTER A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND, ANOTHER
WARMING TREND BEGINS NEXT WEEK WITH MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT-
RELATED IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BASED ON LATEST FORECAST TRENDS, SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS RETURN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHERE SOME COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS BEING THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THEN FOR FRIDAY, A FEW NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY. PRIMARY
HAZARDS ARE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST WITH ANY CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM IS WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FORECASTED
TO RANGE IN THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS TO LOW 90S
FOR VALLEYS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THIS WEEKEND.
BASED ON LATEST FORECAST TRENDS, FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES RANGE
IN THE LOW TO MID-90S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. FOR THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS STEADY ON NOT REACHING HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS MORE THAN 2 HOURS ARE NEEDED FOR FEELS-LIKE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 95 DEGREES. WHILE IT COULD BE REACHED FOR
ONE HOUR, THE IMPACTS REMAIN MINOR FOR THOSE MORE EXTREMELY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE HEAT AND WITHOUT COOLING. STAY HYDRATED AND
TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS WHEN WORKING OUTDOORS DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS. BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
POTENTIAL MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE MEDIUM CHANCES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID-90S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 90S IF HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNS. KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE
LATEST FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
START OFF THE PERIOD ALONGSIDE CLEAR SKIES, ALTHOUGH SOME HIGH
CLOUDS AND FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS ARE PRESENT AT KGFL AND KALB.
PERSISTENT CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIST/FOG FORMATION AT KGFL, KALB, AND KPSF,
WHICH COULD BRING TEMPORARY VIS RESTRICTIONS IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. ANY MIST/FOG THAT DOES FORM SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE BY 12Z THURSDAY, GIVING WAY TO WIDESPREAD VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY
STRENGTHEN TOMORROW MORNING AND PREVAIL OUT OF THE SOUTH TO
SOUTHWEST, ACCOMPANIED BY SOME ADDITIONAL FAIR WEATHER LOW-TO-
MID LEVEL CUMULUS AND HIGH CLOUDS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...23
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