719
FXUS61 KALY 082342
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
742 PM EDT WED JUL 8 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR A FEW STORMS THAT COULD BECOME SEVERE.
PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
2) HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD BACK IN FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY FOR MINOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS.
AFTER A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND, ANOTHER
WARMING TREND BEGINS NEXT WEEK WITH MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT-
RELATED IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BASED ON LATEST FORECAST TRENDS, SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS RETURN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHERE SOME COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS BEING THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THEN FOR FRIDAY, A FEW NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY. PRIMARY
HAZARDS ARE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST WITH ANY CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM IS WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FORECASTED
TO RANGE IN THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS TO LOW 90S
FOR VALLEYS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THIS WEEKEND.
BASED ON LATEST FORECAST TRENDS, FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES RANGE
IN THE LOW TO MID-90S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. FOR THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS STEADY ON NOT REACHING HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS MORE THAN 2 HOURS ARE NEEDED FOR FEELS-LIKE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 95 DEGREES. WHILE IT COULD BE REACHED FOR
ONE HOUR, THE IMPACTS REMAIN MINOR FOR THOSE MORE EXTREMELY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE HEAT AND WITHOUT COOLING. STAY HYDRATED AND
TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS WHEN WORKING OUTDOORS DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS. BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
POTENTIAL MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE MEDIUM CHANCES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID-90S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 90S IF HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNS. KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE
LATEST FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 00Z FRI...VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE TAF CYCLE FOR
KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU WITH A FEW CUMULUS AND SCT-BKN THIN CIRRUS,
AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES SOUTH AND EAST OF THE REGION. WITH MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES AND THE WINDS BECOMING LIGHT TO CALM, SO RADIATIVE
MIST/FOG IS POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN FOR KGFL WHERE VSBYS/CIGS MAY
LOWER TO IFR/LIFR LEVELS ESPECIALLY BETWEEN 06Z-12Z. THE CIRRUS
MAY BE ABUNDANT ENOUGH FOR THE CONDITIONS TO LOWER TO MVFR IN
TERMS OF VSBYS AND THERE IS A CHANCE SOME LOW STRATUS MAY FORM,
AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES THROUGH 08-12Z/THU FOR KALB. WE
INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR IFR CONDITIONS IN TERMS OF VSBYS AT KPSF
WITH LOW MVFR CIGS ALSO 08-12Z/THU AND MVFR CONDITIONS AT KPOU.
THE MIST/FOG AND STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY 12Z-14Z/THU
WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH MAY BRING
ISO-SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE 20Z/THU TO 00Z/FRI
TIME FRAME FOR ALL THE TAF SITES AND WE USED PROB30 GROUPS WHICH
CAN BE REFINED LATER WITH MVFR CONDITIONS WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
THE WINDS WILL BE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 7 KT OR LESS EARLY
TONIGHT, AND THEN WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM. THE WINDS INCREASE
FROM THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST AT LESS THAN 10 KTS IN THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON. ANY THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-35KT.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...15
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