293
FXUS61 KALY 090603
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
203 AM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR A FEW STORMS THAT COULD BECOME SEVERE.
PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE STRONG WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
2) HEAT AND HUMIDITY BUILD BACK IN FOR EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY FOR MINOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS.
AFTER A RETURN TO SEASONAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND, ANOTHER
WARMING TREND BEGINS NEXT WEEK WITH MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT-
RELATED IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
BASED ON LATEST FORECAST TRENDS, SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS RETURN
TOMORROW AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT WHERE SOME COULD BECOME
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS BEING THE PRIMARY
HAZARDS. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER (SPC) CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON. THEN FOR FRIDAY, A FEW NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP BEFORE THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE GREATER CAPITAL REGION AND THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY. PRIMARY
HAZARDS ARE STRONG WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST WITH ANY CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
HUMID CONDITIONS RETURN TOMORROW INTO FRIDAY AS THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM HEADS EAST AND A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ARRIVES
OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WEATHER
SYSTEM IS WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS FORECASTED
TO RANGE IN THE LOW 80S FOR HIGHER TERRAIN LOCATIONS TO LOW 90S
FOR VALLEYS BEFORE A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
BRINGING RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY FOR THIS WEEKEND.
BASED ON LATEST FORECAST TRENDS, FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES RANGE
IN THE LOW TO MID-90S FOR VALLEY LOCATIONS. FOR THE MID-HUDSON
VALLEY, FORECAST CONFIDENCE REMAINS STEADY ON NOT REACHING HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA AS MORE THAN 2 HOURS ARE NEEDED FOR FEELS-LIKE
TEMPERATURES ABOVE 95 DEGREES. WHILE IT COULD BE REACHED FOR
ONE HOUR, THE IMPACTS REMAIN MINOR FOR THOSE MORE EXTREMELY
SUSCEPTIBLE TO THE HEAT AND WITHOUT COOLING. STAY HYDRATED AND
TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS WHEN WORKING OUTDOORS DURING PEAK HEATING
HOURS. BEGINNING EARLY NEXT WEEK, WE CONTINUE TO MONITOR
POTENTIAL MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS AS
TEMPERATURES HAVE MEDIUM CHANCES TO CLIMB INTO THE MID-90S FOR
VALLEY LOCATIONS. FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES COULD CLIMB INTO THE
UPPER 90S IF HUMID CONDITIONS RETURNS. KEEP UP TO DATE ON THE
LATEST FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRI...VFR CONDITIONS BEGIN THE TAF CYCLE WITH
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES SOUTHEAST OF THE
REGION. CLEAR SKIES COMBINED WITH LIGHT WINDS SHOULD SUPPORT
SOME RADIATIVE FOG BUT IT LIKELY WILL NOT BE AS WIDESPREAD AS
YESTERDAY MORNING. HIGHEST CONFIDENCE FOR FOG AND IFR VIS/CIGS
IS FOR KGFL MAINLY FROM 06 - 12 UTC. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE THAT
A SUBTLE BOUNDARY LIFTING TOWARDS I-90 RESULTS IN A FEW
ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS AND LOW STRATUS FOR ALB AND PSF FROM 10
TO 14 UTC. WE INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR VIS/CIGS AT ALB WITH
IFR VIS AT PSF GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR FOG. LESS CONFIDENCE FOR FOG
AT POU SO ONLY INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR MVFR VIS. ANY FOG AND LOW
STRATUS SHOULD BURN OFF/LIFT QUICKLY 12-14 UTC WITH VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING. A PREFRONTAL SFC TROUGH APPROACHES BY
LATE AFTERNOON FROM THE WEST, RESULTING IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN 19 UTC AND 03 UTC FOR ALL
TERMINALS. WE USED PROB30 GROUPS TO HIGHLIGHT THIS POTENTIAL. A
FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS LIKELY LINGER OVERNIGHT AS THE BOUNDARY
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PRESS TOWARDS I-90 BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS
LOW ON EXACT LOCATION AND DURATION OF ANY SHOWERS. THUS, SHOW VFR
CONDITIONS RETURNING FOR ALL TERMINALS WITH MID-LEVEL STRATUS.
LIGHT/CALM WINDS THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING THEN INCREASE FROM
THE SOUTH/SOUTHWEST RANGING 5 TO 9KTS BY 15 - 17 UTC. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE VARIABLE WINDS WITH GUSTS 30-35KT,
EVEN STRONGER SHOULD A SEVERE STORM DEVELOP. WINDS REMAIN WEST-
SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT RANGING 4 TO 8KTS.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...31
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