417
FXUS61 KALY 091751
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
151 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
2) HEAT AND HUMIDITY TODAY WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS. AFTER A BREAK FROM THE HEAT THIS
WEEKEND, CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN MINOR TO
MODERATE HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA
INTO NY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING COMBINED WITH WEAK
HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL
HELP INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO DISTINCT AREAS OF ACTIVITY.
THE FIRST IS FOCUSED MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT NORTH AND
WEST INTO THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING PRESSURE
TROUGH AND WEAK HEIGHT FALLS. THEN, THERE IS A SECOND AREA
MAINLY IN EASTERN PA AND NJ/SOUTHERN NY THAT MAY GRAZE OUR MID-
HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT AREAS AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND A
SUBTLE BOUNDARY LIFT NORTHWARD. DESPITE THE WARM/HUMID
CONDITIONS, INSTABILITY IS UNIMPRESSIVE GENERALLY UNDER 1000
J/KG DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOWING A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION. EVEN STILL, CAMS SHOW SHOWERS
AND STORMS INITIATING MAINLY NEAR OR SHORTLY AFTER 18 UTC
THROUGH 03 UTC; HOWEVER, GIVEN WEAK FORCING, COVERAGE IS
ISOLATED/SCATTERED. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR RANGING 20 TO 30KTS
AND 850-300HPA LAPSE RATES 5.5-6C/KM, SPC CONTINUES TO GRAZE
OUR WESTERN ADIRONDACK AREAS IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5)
FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TODAY WHERE THE BEST HEIGHT FALLS
ARE EXPECTED. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS REMAIN THE
PRIMARY HAZARD FROM ANY SEVERE STORM. ELSEWHERE, SEVERE WEATHER
IS UNLIKELY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WE START OFF THE DAY WITH WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM YESTERDAY SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST. WITH BROAD
TROUGHING POSITIONED WELL UPSTREAM IN THE GREAT LAKES, WE WILL
ENTER INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME SUPPORTING WEAK WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWING A 40 TO 70% CHANCE FOR VALLEY
AREAS TO REACH OR EXCEED 90 DEGREES. GIVEN ELEVATED HUMIDITY
LEVELS, HEAT INDEX VALUES OR THE "FEEL-LIKE TEMPERATURES" WILL
NEAR 95 DEGREES IN THESE AREAS; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LIMITED
COVERAGE WITH THE HEATRISK MAINLY IN THE MINOR TO MODERATE
RANGE, WE CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON HEAT ADVISORIES FOR TODAY.
REGARDLESS, IT WILL STILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID TODAY SO AVOID
STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND DRINK WATER EVEN IF YOU ARE NOT
THIRSTY. TOMORROW WILL NOT BE AS WARM GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD
COVERAGE AND SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION.
AFTER A BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND, THERE IS
A GROWING CONSENSUS AMONG THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK. THIS COMES AS A HEAT DOME IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SLIDES EASTWARD RESULTING IN 850HPA ISOTHERMS RANGING 2 TO
NEARLY 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PER THE ENS NEXT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE
NBM SHOWS A 50 TO 75% CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH OR
EXCEED 90 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND (OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN) WITH EVEN A 25 TO 50%
CHANCE FOR REACHING OR EXCEEDING 95 DEGREES. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LONG THE HEAT WILL LAST AS THERE IS DECENT
CONSENSUS FOR A TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO TRACK
SOUTH/EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD
HELP SHIFT THE HEAT OUT OF OUR AREA BUT ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE SPC DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO
DISCUSS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK IN THE NORTHEAST WHILE ALSO OUTLINING UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT LOCATION.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THIS AFTERNOON WITH VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWING SOME AGITATED
CUMULUS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. MODEST
INSTABILITY AHEAD OF AN INCOMING WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WHICH COULD
SUPPORT SOME ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POTENTIAL
THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THE BEST
CHANCES FOR THUNDER FALL BETWEEN 22-04Z, SO PROB30S WERE ADDED
TO THE TAFS ACCORDINGLY. KPOU WAS THE ONLY EXCEPTION TO THIS, AS
PROBABILITIES FOR EVEN SHOWERS LOOK TO BE FAIRLY LOW HERE. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP LOOK TO REDUCE CONDITIONS INTO AT
LEAST THE MVFR CATEGORY, THOUGH, OUTSIDE OF PSF WHERE MVFR
CEILINGS MAY LINGER FOR A WHILE, VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD SWIFTLY
RETURN AFTER THEIR CONCLUSION. VARIABLE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON
WILL ULTIMATELY SWITCH TO A LARGELY NORTHEAST DIRECTION BY THE
END OF THE PERIOD WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS GENERALLY UNDER 10KT
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THE DURATION OF THE 18Z
CYCLE.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...12
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