001
FXUS61 KALY 092316
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
716 PM EDT THU JUL 9 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR ISOLATED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN ADIRONDACKS THIS AFTERNOON
INTO EARLY THIS EVENING. PRIMARY HAZARDS ARE STRONG WINDS AND
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
2) HEAT AND HUMIDITY TODAY WILL RESULT IN MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES EARLY TO MID NEXT
WEEK RESULTING IN MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTERNOON UPDATE: NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR TODAY.
LATEST 18Z ALY SOUNDING SUPPORTS ENOUGH ENERGY FOR THUNDERSTORMS
TO DEVELOP, BUT LACKING OTHER INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR SEVERE
STORMS SO CONTINUED MENTION OF NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. RAIN
SHOWERS CAN DEVELOP OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS FOR
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS TONIGHT. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS ON TRACK, READ BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A WEAK PRESSURE TROUGH TRACKING EASTWARD
OUT OF SOUTHERN CANADA INTO NY THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
COMBINED WITH WEAK HEIGHT FALLS AHEAD OF BROAD TROUGHING OVER
THE GREAT LAKES WILL HELP INITIATE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO SHOW TWO DISTINCT
AREAS OF ACTIVITY. THE FIRST IS FOCUSED MAINLY FROM THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT NORTH AND WEST INTO THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE INCOMING PRESSURE TROUGH AND WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS. THEN, THERE IS A SECOND AREA MAINLY IN EASTERN PA AND
NJ/SOUTHERN NY THAT MAY GRAZE OUR MID- HUDSON VALLEY AND NW CT
AREAS AS MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVES AND A SUBTLE BOUNDARY LIFT
NORTHWARD. DESPITE THE WARM/HUMID CONDITIONS, INSTABILITY IS
UNIMPRESSIVE GENERALLY UNDER 1000 J/KG DUE TO WARM TEMPERATURES
ALOFT AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWING A WEAK CAPPING INVERSION.
EVEN STILL, CAMS SHOW SHOWERS AND STORMS INITIATING MAINLY NEAR
OR SHORTLY AFTER 18 UTC THROUGH 03 UTC; HOWEVER, GIVEN WEAK
FORCING, COVERAGE IS ISOLATED/SCATTERED. WITH DEEP LAYER SHEAR
RANGING 20 TO 30KTS AND 850-300HPA LAPSE RATES 5.5-6C/KM, SPC
CONTINUES TO GRAZE OUR WESTERN ADIRONDACK AREAS IN A MARGINAL
RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS TODAY WHERE THE
BEST HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED. DAMAGING WINDS AND HEAVY
DOWNPOURS REMAIN THE PRIMARY HAZARD FROM ANY SEVERE STORM.
ELSEWHERE, SEVERE WEATHER IS UNLIKELY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTERNOON UPDATE: NO CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR KEY MESSAGE
NUMBER TWO. READ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
WE START OFF THE DAY WITH WEAK RIDGING OVERHEAD AS HIGH
PRESSURE FROM YESTERDAY SLIDES OFF THE EAST COAST. WITH BROAD
TROUGHING POSITIONED WELL UPSTREAM IN THE GREAT LAKES, WE WILL
ENTER INTO A SOUTHWEST FLOW REGIME SUPPORTING WEAK WARM AIR AND
MOISTURE ADVECTION RESULTING IN TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A FEW
DEGREES HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY INTO THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH
PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE SHOWING A 40 TO 70% CHANCE FOR VALLEY
AREAS TO REACH OR EXCEED 90 DEGREES. GIVEN ELEVATED HUMIDITY
LEVELS, HEAT INDEX VALUES OR THE "FEEL-LIKE TEMPERATURES" WILL
NEAR 95 DEGREES IN THESE AREAS; HOWEVER, GIVEN THE LIMITED
COVERAGE WITH THE HEATRISK MAINLY IN THE MINOR TO MODERATE
RANGE, WE CONTINUE TO HOLD OFF ON HEAT ADVISORIES FOR TODAY.
REGARDLESS, IT WILL STILL BE VERY WARM AND HUMID TODAY SO AVOID
STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES AND DRINK WATER EVEN IF YOU ARE NOT
THIRSTY. TOMORROW WILL NOT BE AS WARM GIVEN INCREASED CLOUD
COVERAGE AND SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH THE REGION.
AFTER A BREAK FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY THIS WEEKEND, THERE IS
A GROWING CONSENSUS AMONG THE MEDIUM AND LONG RANGE GUIDANCE
FOR A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING EARLY TO MID
NEXT WEEK. THIS COMES AS A HEAT DOME IN THE CENTRAL PLAINS
SLIDES EASTWARD RESULTING IN 850HPA ISOTHERMS RANGING 2 TO
NEARLY 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PER THE ENS NEXT
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LATEST PROBABILISTIC GUIDANCE FROM THE
NBM SHOWS A 50 TO 75% CHANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TO REACH OR
EXCEED 90 DEGREES ACROSS MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND (OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN) WITH EVEN A 25 TO 50%
CHANCE FOR REACHING OR EXCEEDING 95 DEGREES. THERE REMAINS SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LONG THE HEAT WILL LAST AS THERE IS DECENT
CONSENSUS FOR A TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO TRACK
SOUTH/EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST LATE NEXT WEEK. THIS WOULD
HELP SHIFT THE HEAT OUT OF OUR AREA BUT ALSO INCREASE THE CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE SPC DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO
DISCUSS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK IN THE NORTHEAST WHILE ALSO OUTLINING UNCERTAINTY IN THE
EXACT LOCATION.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE NEXT 2-3 HOURS WITH A MEDIUM
CHANCE FOR IMPACTS AT PSF. WHILE LIGHT WINDS WILL SUPPORT THE
FORMATION OF FOG AT GFL AND PSF TONIGHT, THE POTENTIAL FOR HIGH
CLOUD COVER COULD BE A LIMITING FACTOR. CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO INCLUDE TEMPO GROUPS WITH THIS FORECAST PACKAGE, BUT
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOG POTENTIAL THROUGH THIS EVENING.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH A LOW CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS FROM KALB SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31/05
AVIATION...91
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