315
FXUS61 KALY 100610
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
210 AM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN ANOTHER PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN MODERATE TO
LOCALLY MAJOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTER HIGH PRESSURE GIVES US A PLEASANT SUMMER WEEKEND
FEATURING LOWER HUMIDITY, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, AND SEASONABLE
MID-JULY TEMPERATURES, THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN PERIOD
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS COMES AS AN EXPANSIVE AND VERY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WITH 500HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL PER THE ENS AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A
HEAT DOME THEREFORE BUILDS IN THE WESTERN U.S AND ROCKIES WITH
THE MASSIVE RIDGE ADVECTING THE HEAT NORTH AND EASTWARD AROUND
ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. 850HPA ISOTHERMS RANGE 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PER THE ENS AND SLIDE INTO THE NORTHEAST
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER STARTING ON
MONDAY WITH THE PROBABILITIES FOR REACHING AT LEAST 90 DEGREES
IN VALLEY AREAS RISING TO 30 TO 60%. THE PROBABILITY FOR HIGHS
REACHING OR EXCEEDING 90 DEGREES ARE HIGHEST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY EXCEEDING 70% FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND (OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN) ON TUESDAY AND RANGING 50
TO 80% ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS EVEN A 40 TO 60% FOR HIGHS TO
REACH OR EXCEED 95 DEGREES IN VALLEY AREAS BOTH DAYS.
CONSIDERING THE HEAT IS ADVECTING WITHIN WEST TO NORTHWEST
FLOW, HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY NOT BE TOO OPPRESSIVE WHICH WOULD
LIMIT OUR HEAT INDEX VALUES OR "FEEL-LIKE" TEMPERATURES. EVEN
STILL, THE LATEST HEATRISK SHOWS WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL 2
OF 4) WITH SOME POCKETS OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.
THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH HOW LONG THE HEAT WILL LAST
AS THERE IS DECENT CONSENSUS FOR A TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN CANADA
TO TRACK SOUTH/EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST BY LATE NEXT WEEK.
THIS WOULD HELP SHIFT THE HEAT OUT OF OUR AREA BUT ALSO INCREASE
THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE SPC DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
CONTINUES TO DISCUSS THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IN THE NORTHEAST WHILE ALSO OUTLINING
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LOCATION.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...AFTER ISOLATED DAYTIME SHOWERS AND
STORMS, LIGHT WINDS AND JUST A CIRRUS CANOPY HAS RESULTED IN FOG
AND IFR VIS AT PSF. THIS WILL LIKELY LAST THROUGH SUNRISE BEFORE
IMPROVING TO AN MVFR CIG WITH VFR RETURNING BY 13 - 15 UTC.
OTHERWISE, INCREASING CLOUD COVER SHOULD LIMIT FOG AT GFL, ALB
AND POU. THEN, VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BY 15 UTC FOR ALL SITES.
THERE REMAINS A LOW CHANCE FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
FOR ALB, PSF AND POU DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS BUT THE LIMITED
COVERAGE GIVES US ENOUGH REASON TO OMIT IT FROM THE LATEST TAFS.
LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT BECOME NORTHERLY TOMORROW RANGING 5 TO 9KTS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15KTS.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31/05
AVIATION...91
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