505
FXUS61 KALY 102323
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
723 PM EDT FRI JUL 10 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK RESULTING IN MODERATE TO
LOCALLY MAJOR HEAT-RELATED IMPACTS.
2) THERE IS A LOW CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER FOR THE MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, DEPENDING ON THE TIMING AND STRENGTH OF A SYSTEM IN
SOUTHERN CANADA TRACKING SOUTHEAST INTO NEW ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTERNOON UPDATE: NO CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST FOR NEXT
WEEK. READ PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
AFTER HIGH PRESSURE GIVES US A PLEASANT SUMMER WEEKEND
FEATURING LOWER HUMIDITY, PLENTY OF SUNSHINE, AND SEASONABLE
MID-JULY TEMPERATURES, THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN PERIOD
OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS COMES AS AN EXPANSIVE AND VERY STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WITH 500HPA HEIGHT ANOMALIES 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS
ABOVE NORMAL PER THE ENS AMPLIFIES ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A
HEAT DOME THEREFORE BUILDS IN THE WESTERN U.S AND ROCKIES WITH
THE MASSIVE RIDGE ADVECTING THE HEAT NORTH AND EASTWARD AROUND
ITS NORTHERN PERIPHERY. 850HPA ISOTHERMS RANGE 2 TO 3 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL PER THE ENS AND SLIDE INTO THE NORTHEAST
EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES TREND WARMER STARTING ON
MONDAY WITH THE PROBABILITIES FOR REACHING AT LEAST 90 DEGREES
IN VALLEY AREAS RISING TO 30 TO 60%. THE PROBABILITY FOR HIGHS
REACHING OR EXCEEDING 90F ARE HIGHEST TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
EXCEEDING 70% FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
(OUTSIDE OF THE HIGH TERRAIN) ON TUESDAY AND RANGING 50 TO 80%
ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS EVEN A 40 TO 60% FOR HIGHS TO REACH OR
EXCEED 95F IN VALLEY AREAS BOTH DAYS. CONSIDERING THE HEAT IS
ADVECTING WITHIN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW, HUMIDITY LEVELS MAY NOT
BE TOO OPPRESSIVE, POTENTIALLY LIMITING OUR HEAT INDEX VALUES
OR "FEEL-LIKE" TEMPERATURES.
EVEN STILL, THE LATEST DETERMINISTIC HEATRISK SHOWS WIDESPREAD
MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF 4) WITH SOME POCKETS OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF
4) RISK TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. THERE IS EVEN A 30 TO 70% CHANCE
FOR MAJOR HEAT RISK ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION BOTH DAYS (OUTSIDE
THE HIGH TERRAIN). AVOID STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES, DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER (EVEN IF YOU ARE NOT THIRSTY) AND CONSIDER
RESCHEDULING ANY AFTERNOON OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TO COOLER PARTS OF
THE DAY. HEAT SENSITIVE POPULATIONS SHOULD HAVE ACCESS TO
ADEQUATE COOLING. THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF RELIEF
FROM THE HEAT TUESDAY NIGHT WHICH CAN FUTURE EXASPERATE HEAT-
RELATED IMPACTS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTERNOON UPDATE: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FOR THE OUTLOOK FOR
EARLY TO MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING FOR
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TUESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. READ PREVIOUS
DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
THE DURATION OF THE UPCOMING HEAT LOOKS RATHER SHORT-LIVED AS THERE
IS DECENT CONSENSUS FOR A POTENT TROUGH FROM SOUTHERN CANADA TO
TRACK SOUTH/EASTWARD INTO THE NORTHEAST FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT
WEEK. THIS WOULD HELP SHIFT THE HEAT OUT OF OUR AREA BUT ALSO
INCREASE THE CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER. THE SPC DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK
CONTINUES TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR AN ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
(EML) TO TRACK AROUND THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE INTO THE GREAT LAKES
AND NORTHEAST. THIS IS QUITE COMMON FOR THESE TYPES OF SYNOPTIC
SET- UPS AND WOULD PROVIDE FAVORABLE INGREDIENTS FOR SEVERE
WEATHER, DEPENDING ON WHERE AND WHEN THE TROUGH IN CANADA PUSHES
INTO NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEAST DURING THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
SPC'S LATEST DAY 4-8 OUTLOOK NOW INCLUDES A 15% CHANCE FOR
SEVERE WEATHER FOCUSED IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THIS EVENING WITH THE EXPECTATION FOR SUCH TO CONTINUE
THROUGHOUT THE 00Z TAF CYCLE. WHILE CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO
CLEAR OUT OF THE REGION THIS EVENING, THERE COULD BE AN
INCREASE, PARTICULARLY AT POU AND POTENTIALLY PSF, LATE TONIGHT
AS A BOUNDARY BECOMES STALLED JUST TO OUR SOUTH. HOWEVER, ALL
CEILINGS THAT RESULT WILL REMAIN WELL WITHIN VFR THRESHOLDS.
ADDITIONALLY, MIST/FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AS DRYING CONDITIONS
AND A LACK OF PRECIPITATION THROUGHOUT THE LAST 24-48 HOURS
SHOULD MAINTAIN A SUFFICIENT DEW POINT DEPRESSION. WINDS WILL
PREVAIL OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHEAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD
WITH SUSTAINED SPEEDS UNDER 10 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31/05
AVIATION...12
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