767
FXUS61 KALY 112248
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
648 PM EDT SAT JUL 11 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ALLOWED FOR GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR TONIGHT WITH TEMPS
SLIGHTLY BELOW NBM VALUES ACROSS THE ADIRONDACKS, ALONG WITH
SOME PATCHY FOG FOR NORTHERN VALLEY AREAS.
TEMPS CONTINUE TO LOOK ABOVE-NORMAL FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE
PORTION OF THE UPCOMING WEEK, WITH THE PEAK OF THE HEAT ON
TUESDAY-WEDNESDAY. THE THREAT FOR STORMS LOOKS LIMITED, THOUGH,
AS THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING MAY REMAIN NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND, SO POPS ARE NOW FAIRLY LOW FOR
MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WHICH WILL BRING MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT-
RELATED IMPACTS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE "HEAT DOME" WILL BE ESTABLISHING
ITSELF OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS RIDGE, WITH MAX UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS REACHING AROUND
600 DM, WILL BE CENTERED WELL WEST OF THE REGION, BUT SOME OF
THE WARMTH WILL BE SPREADING EASTWARD WITHIN THE WEST TO WEST-
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. 850 HPA TEMPS WILL BRIEFLY WARM UP TO
AROUND +20 C BY TUESDAY. HOWEVER, LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WON'T BE
QUITE AS HIGH AS WITH THE PREVIOUS HEAT-EVENT, AS THIS WARMTH
WILL BE ARRIVING WITHIN A WESTERLY FLOW, AS OPPOSED TO A MOIST
SOUTHERLY FLOW. WHILE DEWPOINTS WILL BE RISING INTO THE 60S,
THEY WON'T BE AS OPPRESSIVE AS THE VALUES EARLIER IN THE MONTH.
WHILE TEMPS ALOFT SHOULD SUPPORT HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER TO
MIDDLE 90S FOR VALLEY AREAS ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY, HEAT INDEX
VALUES WON'T BE AS EXTREMELY HIGH AS EARLIER IN THE MONTH.
STILL, VALUES LOOK HIGH ENOUGH TO SUPPORT HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA
IN MANY VALLEY AREAS, WITH VALUES IN THE UPPER 90S TO POSSIBLY
NEAR 100. HEAT RISK IS SHOWING WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL 2 OF
4), WITH SOME POCKETS OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) IN SOME URBANIZED
VALLEY AREAS. EVEN THOUGH PEOPLE HAVE ALREADY EXPERIENCED A HEAT
EVENT EARLIER THIS MONTH, IT'S STILL IMPORTANT TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS
TO AVOID HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES DURING THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY
TIME PERIOD. THERE WON'T BE MUCH RELIEF TUESDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
IN THE 70S IN VALLEY AREAS AS WELL.
AFTERWARD, AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE DIVING OUT OF CANADA
WILL ALLOW FOR LOWERING HEIGHTS AND FALLING TEMPS ALOFT FOR
LATER IN THE WEEK. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPS TO DROP SOMEWHAT
BY THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, ALTHOUGH TEMPS MAY STILL BE SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THE LATE WEEK. WITH THE TRACK OF THIS
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE AND LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE, THE BEST
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION WILL PROBABLY BE NORTH OR NORTHEAST OF
THE AREA OVER FAR NORTHEASTERN NEW YORK AND NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND
FOR TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, SO WON'T CARRY ANY POPS AT THIS
TIME. WHERE STORMS DO DEVELOP, THERE COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE
DUE TO SUFFICIENT SHEAR AND PLENTY OF INSTABILITY, ALTHOUGH THIS
APPEARS TO BE MAINLY NORTHEAST OF OUR AREA AT THIS TIME.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/MON, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OUTSIDE OF
SOME PATCHY FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS CLOUDS WITH BASES OF 5000-7000
FT AGL ALONG WITH SOME OCCASIONAL HIGH CIRRUS CLOUDS. THERE
COULD BE SOME BRIEF PATCHES OF GROUND FOG AT KGFL BETWEEN
06Z-10Z/SUN, HOWEVER OVERALL PROBABILITY APPEARS LOW ENOUGH
(<10%) TO KEEP OUT MENTION AT THIS TIME.
NORTH TO NORTHEAST WINDS 5-10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT/VARIABLE TO
CALM OVERNIGHT THROUGH MID SUNDAY MORNING, THEN MAINLY NE TO SE
AT 4-8 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON, EXCEPT WEST/NORTHWEST WITH SIMILAR
SPEEDS AT KPSF.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
CLIMATE
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
JULY 14
ALBANY: 99 (1995)
GLENS FALLS: 98 (1995)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 99 (1954)
JULY 15
ALBANY: 96 (1997)
GLENS FALLS: 94 (1983)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 (1995)
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...24
CLIMATE...33
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