704
FXUS61 KALY 120551
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
151 AM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TUESDAY CONTINUES TO BE THE DAY OF THE MOST WIDESPREAD HEAT WITH
A PASSING COLD FRONT BRINGING GRADUALLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS FOR
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
THE UPCOMING WEEK WHICH WILL BRING MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT-
RELATED IMPACTS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE
UPCOMING WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH (STRENGTHENING TO AROUND 600 DM) WILL BUILD
ACROSS THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS EARLY THIS WEEK. THIS HEAT DOME
WILL SLOWLY BUILD EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION EARLY THIS WEEK
(850 HPA TEMPERATURES RISING TO +20 TO +22C) ALLOWING FOR A
GRADUAL UPWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES. BY TUESDAY, MOST VALLEY
AREAS WILL RISE INTO THE 90S WITH MID TO UPPER 80S ACROSS THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WITH DEWPOINTS ONLY EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE
60S, THIS PERIOD OF HEAT WILL NOT BE AS INTENSE COMPARED TO
WHAT OCCURRED AT THE BEGINNING OF JULY. STILL, THE COMBINATION
OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND MODERATE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDEX VALUES (FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES) REACHING THE MID 90S
TO AROUND 100 DEGREES FOR MANY VALLEY AREAS ON TUESDAY WHERE
HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. A WEST TO SOUTHWESTERLY
BREEZE WILL ALSO BE IN PLACE ON TUESDAY WHERE OCCASIONAL GUSTS
20 TO 30 MPH ARE EXPECTED DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE NWS
EXPERIMENTAL HEATRISK CONTINUES TO BE IN THE MODERATE (LEVEL 2
OF 4) TO MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4) CATEGORIES ON TUESDAY. TUESDAY
NIGHT WILL FEATURE MINIMAL RELIEF WITH LOWS IN THE MID-60S TO
MID-70S.
HEIGHTS GRADUALLY LOWER WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS
A COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A DOWNWARD TREND IN TEMPERATURES AND A DROP IN
HUMIDITY LEVELS. WHILE TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE TO RUN ABOVE
NORMAL, COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL KEEP HEAT INDEX VALUES
BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS. PRIOR TO THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT,
PORTIONS OF THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY INTO SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD
CONNECTICUT MAY NEED A SECOND DAY OF HEAT ADVISORIES ON
WEDNESDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EACH DAY FROM MID TO
LATE WEEK AS WELL.
IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION, A GENERAL LACK OF FORCING, LIMITED
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND BEING MAINLY CAPPED FOR MOST DAYS,
MOSTLY DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
SHOULD ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP ON SOME DAYS,
OVERALL COVERAGE WILL BE VERY ISOLATED.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/MON...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
UPCOMING TAF PERIOD WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE EXCEPTION
WOULD BE WHETHER ANY PATCHY FOG FORMS AT KGFL PRIOR TO DAYBREAK.
WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE AT 5 KT OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
CLIMATE
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
JULY 14
ALBANY: 99 (1995)
GLENS FALLS: 98 (1995)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 99 (1954)
JULY 15
ALBANY: 96 (1997)
GLENS FALLS: 94 (1983)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 (1995)
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...33
AVIATION...33
CLIMATE...33
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