946
FXUS61 KALY 121740
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
140 PM EDT SUN JUL 12 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR PARTS OF THE AREA FOR MONDAY
THANKS TO A PASSING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TO THE NORTH, BUT
MOST AREAS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN DRY. ANY SHOWER WILL BE BRIEF
WITH LITTLE PRECIPITATION.
TUESDAY STILL IS ON TRACK TO BE THE WARMEST/MOST HUMID DAY OF
THE WEEK. LATEST WPC HEAT RISK IS STILL MODERATE TO LOCALLY
MAJOR ON TUESDAY, BUT DECREASE TO MODERATE FOR THE WHOLE AREA
FOR WEDNESDAY DUE TO DECREASING DEWPOINTS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) HEAT BUILDS ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART
OF THE UPCOMING WEEK WHICH WILL BRING MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT-
RELATED IMPACTS FOR TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. MUCH OF THE UPCOMING
WEEK WILL FEATURE DRY WEATHER AS WELL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FOR EARLY THIS WEEK, A LARGE AND STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
BE SETTING UP OVER THE GREAT PLAINS AND UPPER MIDWEST. THIS WILL
BE A CLASSIC HEAT DOME, WITH UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS REACHING AS
HIGH AS 600 DM UNDER THE CORE OF THE RIDGE AXIS, WHICH WILL BE
LOCATED WELL WEST OF THE AREA. STILL, PLENTY OF WARM AIR ALOFT
WILL BE PUSHING TOWARDS THE AREA FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF
THE WEEK, THANKS TO WEST OR WEST-NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT, BRINGING
THE WARM AIR ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AND TOWARDS OUR AREA. 850
HPA TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH AS HIGH AS +20 TO +22 C ON
TUESDAY, WHICH SHOULD ALLOW FOR VALLEY AREAS TO SEE HIGHS IN THE
LOWER TO MIDDLE 90S. WITH THE WESTERLY FLOW, THE LOW-LEVELS
WON'T BE QUITE AS MOIST AS THE AIR MASS FROM EARLIER IN THE
MONTH, SO DEWPOINTS WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE 60S. STILL, THIS
WILL BE ENOUGH FOR HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REACH THE UPPER 90S TO
NEAR 100 IN MANY VALLEYS, SO HEAT ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE
NEEDED FOR TUESDAY. WPC HEAT RISK HAS WIDESPREAD MODERATE (LEVEL
2 OF 4), WITH SOME POCKETS OF MAJOR (LEVEL 3 OF 4), ESPECIALLY
IN THE URBANIZED AREAS. PEOPLE WILL NEED TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO
AVOID HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES, DESPITE THIS BEING QUITE NOT AS
EXTREME AS WHAT WAS EXPERIENCED ABOUT 10-12 DAYS AGO.
AN APPROACHING FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALLOW FOR A DROP IN THE
DEWPOINTS ON WEDNESDAY. ALTHOUGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
FAIRLY WARM AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY, DEWPOINTS WILL BE CRASHING DOWN
INTO THE 50S ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH SHOULD KEEP HEAT INDEX
VALUES MORE IN CHECK. THERE'S STILL THE POSSIBILITY OF STILL
NEEDING SOME ADVISORIES FOR FAR SOUTHERN AREAS ON WEDNESDAY, AS
THEY MAY BE AHEAD OF THE FRONT FOR LONG ENOUGH, BUT MOST AREAS
WILL START TO SEE SOME RELIEF. TEMPS WILL BE CLOSER TO
SEASONABLE (ALTHOUGH STILL MAY BE SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL) FOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY, BEFORE MORE NOTICEABLE COOLING ARRIVES BY
THE WEEKEND.
THE APPROACHING BOUNDARY ON LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY COULD HAVE A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, ALTHOUGH
THE BEST MOISTURE AND FORCING APPEARS TO BE NORTHEAST OF THE
REGION. THERE COULD BE SOME STRONG STORMS WITH THIS ACTIVITY
WILL PLENTY OF SHEAR IN PLACE, BUT THE COVERAGE LOOKS MORE
LIMITED FOR OUR AREA, AND THE OVERNIGHT TIMING WON'T BE AS
FAVORABLE FOR THAT AS WELL. OTHERWISE, IT LOOKS FAIRLY DRY THIS
WEEK, WITH JUST SOME SPOTTY SHOWERS ON MONDAY AND SOME ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS FOR FAR NORTHERN AREAS FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT.
NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS WON'T BE UNTIL THE
WEEKEND. IN ADDITION, IT LOOKS FAIRLY BREEZY FOR TUESDAY WITH
GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS. THESE BREEZY CONDITIONS MAY LINGER BEHIND
THE FRONT ON WEDNESDAY AS WELL, WITH WINDS BECOMING WEST-
NORTHWEST. ON BOTH DAYS, SOME GUSTS REACHING 25 MPH OR SO LOOK
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN THE MOHAWK VALLEY AND CAPITAL REGION,
WHERE THE TERRAIN WILL FUNNEL THE AIRFLOW.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT
THIS TAF PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE OVER THE
REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGHOUT THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS. HIGH CLOUDS WILL DOMINATE THROUGHOUT THE
OVERNIGHT PERIOD, WITH WINDS REMAINING EITHER LIGHT OR CALM,
ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS COULD BE SEEN AT
KALB, KPOU, AND KPSF IN THE EARLY HOURS OF THE NIGHT. WINDS
WILL BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN AROUND 12Z MONDAY, STAYING
LIGHT WHILE PREVAILING OUT OF THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST. MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY MORNING/EARLY
AFTERNOON, WITH SOME FEW-SCT LOW AND HIGH CLOUDS AT ALL
TERMINALS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
CLIMATE
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
JULY 14
ALBANY: 99 (1995)
GLENS FALLS: 98 (1995)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 99 (1954)
JULY 15
ALBANY: 96 (1997)
GLENS FALLS: 94 (1983)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 (1995)
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...23
CLIMATE...33
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