578
FXUS61 KALY 140533
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
133 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW (TUESDAY) HAS BEEN EXPANDED TO
NOW INCLUDE SCHOHARIE, WESTERN ALBANY, EASTERN RENSSELAER,
WESTERN GREENE, WESTERN ULSTER, AND WESTERN WINDHAM COUNTIES
WHERE HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH UP TO 101 DEGREES
FAHRENHEIT. ALL ELSE REMAINS ALIGNED WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE COMBINATION OF HIGH HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR
DANGEROUS HEAT INDICES ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.
2) THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SEVERAL DAYS THIS WEEK, BUT NO APPRECIABLE RAIN IS
ANTICIPATED UNTIL AT LEAST THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1
VERY HOT CONDITIONS RETURN TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TOMORROW AS A NEARLY 600 DM RIDGE, CURRENTLY BUILDING
OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL CONUS, SHIFTS EASTWARD. THE SUBSTANTIAL
INCREASE IN GEOPOTENTIAL HEIGHT WILL TRANSLATE TO AN EVEN
GREATER RISE IN 850 MB TEMPERATURES WHICH LOOK TO RANGE FROM
ABOUT +20C TO +23C (2.5 TO NEARLY 3.5 STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL).
GIVEN DEEP, LOW-LEVEL MIXING AND UNOBSTRUCTED RADIATION FROM
CLEAR SKIES, HIGH TEMPERATURES AT THE SURFACE WILL SUBSEQUENTLY
RISE WIDELY TO THE MID/UPPER 80S TO UPPER 90S. AND WHILE
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW TO UPPER 60S WILL CERTAINLY ADD TO THE
OPPRESSIVE FEELING OF THE HEAT, WESTERLY FLOW COULD ENHANCE
LOCALIZED WARMING AND DRYING SUCH THAT THE REAL EFFECTS OF THE
HEAT ARE FELT PRIMARILY FROM THE TEMPERATURES THEMSELVES. THAT
BEING SAID, THIS COMBINATION OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL
MAKE FOR FEELS LIKE TEMPERATURES, OR HEAT INDICES, IN THE UPPER
90S TO LOW 100S ACROSS LARGE VALLEY AREAS. THEREFORE, THE
PREVIOUS HEAT ADVISORY FOR TOMORROW STANDS WITH ADDITIONAL ZONES
HAVING BEEN ADDED GIVEN INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN 95 DEGREE
FAHRENHEIT HEAT INDICES.
A LARGE UPPER-LEVEL LOW WILL TOP THE RIDGE IN NORTHEAST CANADA
ON WEDNESDAY, SHUNTING THE HIGHEST HEIGHTS TO OUR SOUTH. A COLD
FRONT WILL LIKEWISE TRACK THROUGH OUR REGION THROUGHOUT THE DAY,
LIMITING THE POTENTIAL RISE OF TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS.
STILL, DEEP MIXING INTO AN 850MB LAYER THAT WILL STILL MAINTAIN
TEMPERATURES OF +13C TO +16C, HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LARGELY
REACH THE 80S TO 90S. IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTY, WHERE TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WILL HAVE
THE GREATEST TIME TO RISE AHEAD OF THE FRONT, HEAT INDICES WILL
REACH THE MID TO UPPER 90S. THEREFORE, HEAT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. CAUTION IS ADVISED BOTH
TOMORROW AND WEDNESDAY PARTICULARLY TO INDIVIDUALS WHO MAY BE
MORE SUSCEPTIBLE TO HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS. THESE TEMPERATURES AND
HEAT INDICES WILL BE DANGEROUS IF PROPER BEHAVIORS FOR
MITIGATING HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES ARE NOT ADHERED TO.
KEY MESSAGE 2
AS A WEAK, UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE PASSES OVERHEAD THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THIS EVENING, ISOLATED SHOWERS OF EARLIER THIS MORNING AND
THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE PARTICULARLY FOR PORTIONS OF THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW ENGLAND. TOMORROW, WHILE WE
WILL BE WELL UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE WHICH SHOULD
INHIBIT ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS, THE INCOMING COLD FRONT
BENEATH ANOTHER STRONGER UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE SHOULD PROMOTE
ENOUGH FORCING TO ALLOW ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY A NON-
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM TO DEVELOP LATE IN THE EVENING IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS. THE REST OF THE WEEK SHOULD, TOO, REMAIN
MOSTLY DRY AS THE RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAKDOWN, BUT BY THIS
WEEKEND, MORE WIDESPREAD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS RETURN AS A
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE GREAT LAKES. THIS SYSTEM
COULD POTENTIALLY BRING MORE APPRECIABLE RAIN WHICH WILL BE
GREATLY NEEDED BY THAT POINT.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE AT
KGFL VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD 03Z-06Z WEDNESDAY, BUT PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS. AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS DECREASE TO
LESS THAN 5 KT AND WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL INCREASE TO
30-35 KT, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP BY AROUND 08Z. LLWS
WILL DISSIPATE BY 13Z TODAY AS SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT DEVELOPING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
CLIMATE
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
JULY 14
ALBANY: 99 (1995)
GLENS FALLS: 98 (1995)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 99 (1954)
JULY 15
ALBANY: 96 (1997)
GLENS FALLS: 94 (1983)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 (1995)
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR CTZ013.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR NYZ064>066.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063-083-084.
MA...NONE.
VT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR VTZ014-015.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...07
CLIMATE...33
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