908
FXUS61 KALY 140649
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
249 AM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORY TODAY EXPANDED TO INCLUDE BENNINGTON, SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRE AND NORTHERN BERKSHIRE COUNTIES. HEAT ADVISORIES
REMAIN UNCHANGED FOR OTHER AREAS FOR TODAY AND/OR WEDNESDAY.
PATCHY SMOKE HAS BEEN ADDED TO THE WEATHER GRIDS FOR THE NEXT
FEW DAYS DUE TO ACTIVE WILDFIRES IN SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA, WITH
THE WIND FLOW BRINGING SOME OF THAT SMOKE INTO THE NORTHEAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA TODAY AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
2) THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FOR AREAS MAINLY NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE AND
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE APPROACHING FROM THE
MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TODAY. GOOD MIXING CONDITIONS WITH A
STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN INCREASING WEST-
SOUTHWEST WINDS (PEAK GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH). THIS WILL AIDE IN
SURFACE WARMING, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF AROUND +22C TO
+23C. TEMPERATURES IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL ALSO RECEIVE A
BOOST FROM DOWNSLOPING. HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO REACH
94-98F IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE LOWER THAN NBM DUE TO DEEP MIXING, MAINLY IN
THE 60S. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT COMBINATION RESULTS IN PEAK HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S WITHIN THE HEAT ADVISORY.
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE APPROACHED THIS
AFTERNOON. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR CURRENT RECORDS.
A COOL FRONT WILL START TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH/WEST LATE
TONIGHT, BUT WILL NOT ARRIVE IN TIME TO COOL TEMPERATURES ENOUGH
TO PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE THE IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. WED DOES NOT LOOK TO BE QUITE
AS HOT AS THE COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES "COOLING" TO AROUND +18C TO +20C. HOWEVER, WITH
GOOD MIXING AGAIN SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
90S, WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FARTHER NORTH. ALTHOUGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE, PEAK HEAT INDICES OF
95-100F ARE EXPECTED IN E. ULSTER, DUTCHESS AND S. LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
GRADUAL COOLING IS ANTICIPATED LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FROM FRI TO MON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SQUELCH CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO GET
SUPPRESSED AS A SHORT WAVE TRACKS EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT
LAKES AND SE CANADA TONIGHT, THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT. AREAS FROM THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH LOOK TO BE
MORE CAPPED SO WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY. THE STORM PREDICTION
CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE PARTS OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE
GEORGE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) OUTLOOK FOR
SEVERE STORMS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN A CONDITIONAL THREAT
DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH AN EML OVER THE REGION AND
STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT. MAIN QUESTION WILL BE FORCING,
WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS FAR
NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE
PASSAGE. THE LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THIS. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR TRENDS.
OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM WED SOUTH OF ALBANY, NO
APPRECIABLE CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE
WEEKEND WHEN THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. AN ISOLATED TSRA IS POSSIBLE AT
KGFL VERY LATE IN THE PERIOD 03Z-06Z WEDNESDAY, BUT PROBABILITY
IS TOO LOW TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS. AS SOUTH-SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS DECREASE TO
LESS THAN 5 KT AND WESTERLY WINDS AROUND 2000 FT AGL INCREASE TO
30-35 KT, LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR WILL DEVELOP BY AROUND 08Z. LLWS
WILL DISSIPATE BY 13Z TODAY AS SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS INCREASE
TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT DEVELOPING.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
CLIMATE
CURRENT RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES
JULY 14
ALBANY: 99 (1995)
GLENS FALLS: 98 (1995)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 99 (1954)
JULY 15
ALBANY: 96 (1997)
GLENS FALLS: 94 (1983)
POUGHKEEPSIE: 98 (1995)
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR CTZ001.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR CTZ013.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR NYZ038>043-047>054-058>061-063-083-084.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY
FOR NYZ064>066.
MA...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR MAZ025.
VT...HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING
FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07
CLIMATE...33
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