603
FXUS61 KALY 142318
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
718 PM EDT TUE JUL 14 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF TODAY AS THICK SMOKE ABOVE THE
SURFACE FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA CONTRIBUTES TO HAZY SKIES AND
KEEPING TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S TO LOW 90S. WHILE HUMIDITY IS
INCREASING AND THERE COULD BE BREAKS OF SUN, HEAT IMPACTS CAN STILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON FOR CONTINUATION OF THE HEAT ADVISORY.
CONTINUED TREND OF MENTIONING SMOKE, FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA, IN
THE FORECAST TO BRING VISIBILITY IMPACTS TOMORROW AFTERNOON TO
PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HAZY SKY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE TOMORROW ACROSS ALL OF EASTERN
NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. ADDITIONALLY, LOWERED
TEMPERATURES FOR TOMORROW AS WELL DUE TO THE SMOKE AND HAZY
CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITY WILL
LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT-RELATED ILLNESSES ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA TODAY AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
2) ISOLATED RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS, LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA REGION, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN
VERMONT TONIGHT.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTERNOON UPDATE: TEMPERATURES WERE LOWERED 5 TO 8 DEGREES FOR
THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO HAZY SKY CONDITIONS FROM
WILDFIRE SMOKE MOVING IN FROM CANADA. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY
DOES SHOW SOME PARTIAL CLEARING AND HUMIDITY IS INCREASING,
CONTINUED THE HEAT ADVISORY FOR TODAY THROUGH 8 PM TONIGHT
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. HOWEVER, MORE
SMOKE AND HAZE IS MOVING IN WITH THE COLD FRONT TO OUR NORTH FOR
TOMORROW. TEMPERATURES COULD STRUGGLE AGAIN TOMORROW DUE TO THE
THICKNESS OF THE SMOKE ABOVE THE SURFACE. LATEST FORECAST MODEL
TRENDS DO HAVE SOME SMOKE MAKING IT TO THE SURFACE TOMORROW
MORNING AND AFTERNOON FOR PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK, BUT
TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL STILL BRING SOME IMPACTS TO THE
MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHERN LITCHFIELD COUNTY BEFORE THE COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: OUR REGION WILL BE ON THE EASTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LARGE AND ANOMALOUSLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPROACHING FROM THE MIDWEST AND GREAT LAKES TODAY. GOOD MIXING
CONDITIONS WITH A STRENGTHENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING WEST- SOUTHWEST WINDS (PEAK GUSTS OF 25-35 MPH).
THIS WILL AIDE IN SURFACE WARMING, WITH 850 MB TEMPERATURES OF
AROUND +22C TO +23C. TEMPERATURES IN THE HUDSON VALLEY WILL ALSO
RECEIVE A BOOST FROM DOWNSLOPING. HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO
REACH 94-98F IN MOST VALLEY LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH
DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE LOWER THAN NBM DUE TO DEEP MIXING, MAINLY IN
THE 60S. TEMPERATURE/DEWPOINT COMBINATION RESULTS IN PEAK HEAT
INDICES IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOWER 100S WITHIN THE HEAT ADVISORY.
DAILY RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES COULD BE APPROACHED THIS
AFTERNOON. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR CURRENT RECORDS.
A COOL FRONT WILL START TO APPROACH FROM THE NORTH/WEST LATE
TONIGHT, BUT WILL NOT ARRIVE IN TIME TO COOL TEMPERATURES ENOUGH
TO PROVIDE MUCH RELIEF. LOWS TONIGHT WILL MAINLY BE THE IN THE
LOWER/MID 70S IN LOWER ELEVATIONS. WED DOES NOT LOOK TO BE QUITE
AS HOT AS THE COOL FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WITH 850 MB
TEMPERATURES "COOLING" TO AROUND +18C TO +20C. HOWEVER, WITH
GOOD MIXING AGAIN SOUTHERN AREAS WILL SEE HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID
90S, WITH UPPER 80S TO LOWER 90S FARTHER NORTH. ALTHOUGH
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE, PEAK HEAT INDICES OF
95-100F ARE EXPECTED IN E. ULSTER, DUTCHESS AND S. LITCHFIELD
COUNTIES WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
GRADUAL COOLING IS ANTICIPATED LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL FROM FRI TO MON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTERNOON UPDATE: NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST, CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED FOR SHOWER ACTIVITY TO BE
ISOLATED TONIGHT FOR LOCATIONS IN THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS, LAKE
GEORGE-SARATOGA REGION, AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN VERMONT. STRONG
WINDS STILL LOOK TO BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD TONIGHT WITH ANY
DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL SQUELCH
CONVECTION ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, AS THE RIDGE STARTS TO GET SUPPRESSED AS A SHORT WAVE
TRACKS EAST FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND SE CANADA TONIGHT,
THERE WILL BE A CHANCE FOR CONVECTION FOR AREAS NORTH OF THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. AREAS FROM THE
CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH LOOK TO BE MORE CAPPED SO WILL LIKELY
REMAIN DRY. THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER CONTINUES TO HAVE PARTS
OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) OUTLOOK FOR SEVERE STORMS. THIS SEEMS REASONABLE
GIVEN A CONDITIONAL THREAT DUE TO FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH AN
EML OVER THE REGION AND STRONG 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 40-50 KT. MAIN
QUESTION WILL BE FORCING, WITH MOST OF THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS FAR NORTHERN NEW YORK AND NEW ENGLAND
CLOSER TO THE SHORT WAVE PASSAGE. THE LATEST CAMS CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT THIS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM WED SOUTH OF ALBANY, NO
APPRECIABLE CHANCES FOR PRECIP ARE IN THE FORECAST UNTIL THE
WEEKEND WHEN THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE ACTIVE AS A BROAD
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETS UP ACROSS THE REGION.
AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/THURSDAY, MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD
BRING BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS TO KGFL BETWEEN 07Z-10Z/WED. FOR
WEDNESDAY, AREAS OF HAZE/SMOKE FROM CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL
COULD BRING SOME REDUCTIONS IN VSBYS MAINLY DURING WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY KALB, KPSF AND KPOU. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
PATCHY MVFR VSBYS DURING THIS TIME SHOULD SOME SLIGHTLY THICKER
SURFACE BASED SMOKE EXTEND SOUTH AND EAST INTO THE TAF SITES.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY SMOKE.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR CTZ013.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ038>043-
047>054-058>061-063-083-084.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR NYZ064>066.
AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO MIDNIGHT EDT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR NYZ038.
MA...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ025.
VT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...07/05
AVIATION...24
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