413
FXUS61 KALY 150915
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
515 AM EDT WED JUL 15 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH #490 HAS BEEN CANCELLED. STORM HAVE
WEAKENED AND MOVED OUT OF THE AREA, THUS THE THREAT HAS ENDED.
WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION PATCHY TO AREAS OF SMOKE TODAY AND
ADDED SMOKE FOR THURSDAY. THIS IS DUE TO ACTIVE WILDFIRES IN
SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA. THE WEST-NORTHWEST WIND TRAJECTORY WILL
CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE TO BRING SMOKE INTO THE NORTHEAST. AS A
RESULT OF THE SMOKE, TEMPERATURES FOR TODAY WERE LOWERED FROM
THE NBM BY A FEW DEGREES.
ADDED SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS FAR
SOUTHERN AREAS, AS A COLD FRONT TRACKS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A FEW NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WELL SOUTH OF
ALBANY THIS AFTERNOON.
2) HOT TEMPERATURES WILL LEAD TO AN INCREASED RISK FOR HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESSES ACROSS SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA TODAY.
3) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS A COLD FRONT/DEWPOINT BOUNDARY WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHWARD ACROSS OUR REGION TODAY, THE FRONT MOVING THROUGH
SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA DURING PEAK HEATING MAY RESULT IN AN
ISOLATED SHOWER/T-STORM IN MAINLY DUTCHESS/LITCHFIELD COUNTIES.
COVERAGE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED THOUGH, AS MOISTURE DECREASES
THROUGH THE DAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A COOL FRONT RESULTING IN SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES, BUT
ALSO NOTICEABLE LOWER HUMIDITY LEVELS, WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
REGION THROUGH TODAY. 850 MB TEMPERATURES WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS
TUE, AT +18C TO +20C. HOWEVER, AS DEWPOINTS LOWER BEHIND THE
FRONT, DEEPER MIXING WILL DEVELOP. IT WILL BE WARMEST IN
SOUTHERN AREAS, WITH EXPECTED HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 90S, WITH
UPPER 80S TO NEAR 90F FARTHER NORTH. NBM TEMPERATURES WERE
LOWERED A FEW DEGREES THOUGH DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF SMOKE, WHICH
WILL LIKELY INHIBIT SOME WARMING/MIXING. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON, ALTHOUGH THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES WILL
OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON. SO PEAK HEAT INDICES OF 95-98F ARE
EXPECTED IN PARTS E. ULSTER, DUTCHESS AND S. LITCHFIELD COUNTIES
WHERE A HEAT ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT.
WHILE TEMPERATURES WILL STILL BE ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THU,
HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE NOTICEABLY LOWER WITH DEWPOINTS MAINLY
IN THE 50S. TEMPERATURES EXPECTED TO COOL TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS
FRI THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
OTHER THAN SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE
T-STORMS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON THU ASSOCIATED WITH A
WEAKENING FRONT, IT WILL BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN.
BETTER LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS LOOKS TO OCCUR SAT INTO
SAT NIGHT, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND POTENT SHORT WAVE ALOFT
MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BE FIRST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD
PRECIP SINCE LAST WEEK. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO EXIT TO OUR EAST ON
SUN, ALTHOUGH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
AS AN UPPER TROUGH LINGERS.
AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED INTO
THIS MORNING. HOWEVER, WIDELY SCATTERED TSRA AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT COULD BRING BRIEF MVFR/IFR VSBYS TO KGFL
BETWEEN 07Z-10Z. AFTER 12Z TODAY, AREAS OF HAZE/SMOKE FROM
CANADIAN WILDFIRES WILL COULD BRING SOME REDUCTIONS IN VSBY
MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY AT KALB, KPSF AND KPOU.
WILL MENTION MAINLY 6SM VSBY WITH HAZE. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR
PATCHY MVFR VSBY DURING THIS TIME SHOULD SOME SLIGHTLY THICKER
SURFACE BASED SMOKE EXTEND TO THE TAF SITES. WINDS WILL BECOME
WEST-NORTHWEST AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT
DEVELOPING.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY SMOKE.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ013.
NY...HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ064>066.
AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...24/07
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