761
FXUS61 KALY 160528
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
128 AM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
HEAT ADVISORIES FOR EASTERN ULSTER, DUTCHESS, AND SOUTHERN
LITCHFIELD COUNTIES HAVE ENDED AS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING
TO REACH ABOVE 90 DEGREES AND HEAT INDEX VALUES, FEELS-LIKE
TEMPERATURES, HAVE BEEN BELOW 95 DEGREES.
SMOKE AND HAZE CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW WHERE TEMPERATURES AGAIN
TOMORROW HAVE BEEN LOWERED WITH HIGHS EXPECTED TO RANGE IN THE 80S.
KEY MESSAGES
1) SMOKE AND HAZE FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS
EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
FROM WILDFIRES IN ONTARIO CANADA, SMOKE AND HAZY CONDITIONS
CONTINUE AS THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW CONTINUES TO SUPPORT
TRANSPORTING THE SMOKE TO EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND. LATEST HIGH RESOLUTION FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE
SUPPORTS NEAR SURFACE SMOKE AND HAZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW EVENING. THE WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO SHIFT
TO TRANSPORT THE SMOKE AND HAZE FURTHER SOUTHWARD TOMORROW
EVENING. BASED ON SURFACE OBSERVATIONS, VISIBILITIES HAVE BEEN
AS LOW AS TWO MILES IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY. ELSEWHERE,
VISIBILITIES HAVE RANGED BETWEEN 3 AND 6 MILES. BASED ON LATEST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS TO OUR WEST,
VISIBILITIES WILL CONTINUE TO FLUCTUATE TONIGHT DUE TO HOW
THICK THE SMOKE AND HAZE IS TO BETWEEN 2 AND 6 MILES. WHILE
CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE HAZY TOMORROW, IMPROVEMENT IS
FORECASTED TO BEGIN FROM NORTH TO SOUTH TOMORROW EVENING NEAR
SUNSET INTO THE EARLY OVERNIGHT HOURS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AFTERNOON UPDATE: LATEST ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCES ARE
CONSISTENT WITH ARRIVAL TIME BEING IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS TO
EARLY AFTERNOON FOR WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS. DEPENDING ON FORECAST TRENDS, THE ENVIRONMENT AND
INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR A FEW STRONG STORMS COULD DEVELOP.
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST WITH LATEST FORECAST GUIDANCE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: OTHER THAN SOME WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND NON-SEVERE T-STORMS NORTH OF THE CAPITAL DISTRICT ON THU
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAKENING FRONT, IT WILL BE DRY ACROSS MUCH OF
THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST INTO FRI AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN. BETTER LIKELIHOOD FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS LOOKS TO
OCCUR SAT INTO SAT NIGHT, AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND POTENT
SHORT WAVE ALOFT MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THIS WILL BE FIRST CHANCE
FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIP SINCE LAST WEEK. THE SYSTEM LOOKS TO EXIT
TO OUR EAST ON SUN, ALTHOUGH A FEW ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/T-STORMS
WILL BE POSSIBLE AS AN UPPER TROUGH LINGERS.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH SMOKE/HAZE LAYER COULD PRODUCE
MVFR VSBY AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY NEAR KPOU JUST PRIOR TO 12Z.
AFTER 12Z, SURFACE-BASED SMOKE FROM UPSTREAM CANADIAN WILDFIRES
WILL REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR OR EVEN OCCASIONAL IFR LEVELS, WITH
LOWEST VSBY EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AT KALB, KPOU AND KPSF.
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON AT KGFL, KALB AND KPSF AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
SECONDARY COLD FRONT, WHICH COULD ALSO REDUCE VSBY TO LOW MVFR
OR IFR WHEN COMBINED WITH THE EXISTING SMOKE/HAZE. WINDS WILL
INITIALLY BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, BECOMING WEST-NORTHWEST AROUND
10-15 KT WITH GUSTS OF 20-25 KT DEVELOPING.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE K.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL NOON EDT TODAY FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...AIR QUALITY ALERT FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 11 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...07/05
AVIATION...24/07
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