919
FXUS61 KALY 161806
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
206 PM EDT THU JUL 16 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SMOKE LOOKS TO BE QUITE WIDESPREAD AND THICK TODAY, SO WILL
CONTINUE MENTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THIS WILL RESULT IN
COOLER TEMPERATURES, SO NBM VALUES WERE REDUCED BY SEVERAL
DEGREES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SMOKE AND HAZE FROM WILDFIRES IN CANADA WILL
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
THROUGH TODAY.
2) UNSETTLED WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BECOMING LIKELY BY SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SMOKE AND THICK, HAZY SKIES WILL BE PREVALENT ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. BOTH THE VERTICALLY-INTEGRATED AND NEAR-SURFACE SMOKE
FORECASTS FROM THE HRRR SHOW HIGH CONCENTRATIONS THROUGH TODAY.
MAINLY EFFECTS FROM THE SMOKE WILL BE BOTH POOR AIR QUALITY AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY. ALSO TEMPERATURES WILL BE MUCH COOLER THAN
THEY OTHERWISE WOULD BE TODAY. HIGHS EXPECTED TO ONLY REACH THE
MID 70S TO LOWER 80S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA TODAY AS A RESULT
OF THE SMOKE/HAZE. AS WINDS TURN MORE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING,
SMOKE WILL SHIFT SOUTH AND BECOME SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH
TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA TODAY,
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED T-STORM IS POSSIBLE FOR
AREAS NORTH OF ALBANY. OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH FRI. ANY STORMS TODAY SHOULD BE NON-SEVERE AS
INSTABILITY WILL BE LIMITED, ESPECIALLY WITH THE WIDESPREAD
SMOKE/HAZE AROUND.
THE NEXT LIKELIHOOD OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WITH SOME
T-STORMS ALSO POSSIBLE, WILL BE SAT INTO EARLY SUN AS AN
ANOMALOUSLY STRONG CYCLONE (MSLP ANOMALIES OF -2 TO -3 STDEV)
AND A POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT WILL BE APPROACHING FROM
THE GREAT LAKES/SE CANADA. TIMING LOOKS TO BE MAINLY ARRIVING
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING HOURS. PWAT ANOMALIES FORECAST TO
RISE TO +1 TO +2 STDEV, SO SOME LOCAL DOWNPOURS MAY OCCUR,
ESPECIALLY WITHIN ANY EMBEDDED CONVECTION. OVERALL THE SHOWERS
WILL BE BENEFICIAL AS THERE HASN'T BEEN ANY WIDESPREAD RAINFALL
FOR OVER A WEEK. THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS MUDDLED, AS THE
MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY WILL BE THE MAIN QUESTION. CLOUDS
AND/OR SMOKE/HAZY COULD LIMIT INSTABILITY DEPENDING
COVERAGE/THICKNESS. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS. CONDITIONS
WILL GRADUALLY IMPROVE ON SUN, AS THE SYSTEM SHIFTS EAST OF THE
AREA.
WITH A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE
THROUGH AT LEAST THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, A SHORT WAVE MOVING
THROUGH THE MEAN TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE THROUGH IN THE TUE-WED
TIME FRAME. THIS SYSTEM BRING THE NEXT CHANCE OF
SHOWERS/T-STORMS. SHOULD SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY DEVELOP, SOME
STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR, WITH FAIRLY STRONG KINEMATICS IN
PLACE FOR MID-LATE JULY.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY... PERSISTENT HAZE/SMOKE FROM CANADIAN
WILDFIRES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT FLIGHT CATEGORIES ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. EXPECT MVFR TO
MARGINAL VFR VIS AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE START OF THIS
PERIOD, WITH KPOU ALREADY EXPERIENCING IFR VIS THIS AFTERNOON.
KGFL COULD ALSO SEE A WINDOW OF PASSING SHOWERS THIS EVENING,
WHICH COULD BRIEFLY REINFORCE THE REDUCED VIS ALREADY CAUSED BY
SMOKE/HAZE. WINDS WILL SHIFT AROUND SUNSET TONIGHT AND START TO
PUSH THE SMOKE SOUTHWARD, WITH VIS RETURNING TO VFR ACROSS ALL
TERMINALS OVERNIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME MIST/FOG
FORMATION AT KGFL IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ON FRIDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO WARRANT INCLUSION IN THIS
TAF CYCLE.
MODERATE WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL START OFF THIS
PERIOD ACROSS ALL TERMINALS, WITH GUSTS REACHING UP TO 20-30 KTS
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. WINDS AND GUSTS WILL QUICKLY DROP OFF
AFTER SUNSET AND BECOME MORE LIGHT AND VARIABLE, WHICH WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY AT KALB, KPOU, AND KPSF. WINDS OUT OF
THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN
THEREAFTER AT THOSE TERMINALS, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF KGFL WHICH
IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN VERY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THROUGH
THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...23
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