052
FXUS61 KALY 171044
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
644 AM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THERE IS NOW A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. SOME SMOKE MAY MOVE BACK INTO OUR AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, SO ADDED MENTION TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) UNSETTLED WEATHER EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT,
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY. SOME STORMS COULD BE
SEVERE WITH DAMAGING WINDS. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS ALSO
POSSIBLE.
2) ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY
INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY
OCCUR.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT HAS INCREASED FOR SATURDAY, WITH THE
STORM PREDICTION CENTER PLACING ALL OF EASTERN NY AND WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND IN A SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) OUTLOOK. THE SURFACE
CYCLONE CONTINUES TO TREND STRONGER (MSLP ANOMALIES OF -2 TO -4
STDEV), ALONG WITH A CONTINUED POTENT SHORT WAVE TROUGH ALOFT.
AS A RESULT OF THE STRONGER SYSTEM, THE KINEMATICS (850 MB WIND
SPEED ANOMALIES OF +2 TO +3 STDEV) AND 0-6 KM LAYER WIND SHEAR
(35-40 KT) ARE STRONG, THUS THE UPGRADE. THERE IS STILL SOME
QUESTION AS TO HOW MUCH INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP DUE TO
POTENTIAL CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AND EVEN SOME
ADDITIONAL SMOKE DRIFTING BACK IN. SBCAPE FORECAST TO BE < 1000
J/KG (HREF). HOWEVER, THE OVERALL STRONG FORCING AND KINEMATICS
ARE EXPECTED TO OFFSET LIMITING FACTORS. MAIN TIME FRAME LOOKS
TO BE SAT AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING. LATEST CAMS ARE NOW IN
THIS TIME WINDOW, SHOWING VARYING SOLUTIONS BUT OVERALL
EVOLUTION OF AND CONVECTIVE MODE IS SIMILAR WITH POTENTIAL
LINEAR CLUSTERS DEVELOPING ALONG THE STRONGLY FORCED COLD FRONT.
WILL REFINE TIMING WITH SUBSEQUENT FORECASTS. BASED ON THE
SETUP, THE MAIN THREAT WOULD BE DAMAGING WINDS GUSTS ALTHOUGH AN
ISOLATED TORNADO MAY OCCUR DUE TO CLOCKWISE VEERING WIND
PROFILE IN THE LOW-MID LEVELS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITHIN CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS
TOO. PWATS SURGE TO +1 TO +2 STDEV WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR AHEAD
OF THE COLD FRONT. THE OVERALL FAST MOVEMENT OF STORMS AND
RECENT DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD MITIGATE A MORE WIDESPREAD FLOOD
THREAT, ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT
ESPECIALLY IN URBAN AREAS. THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER
CONTINUES TO HAVE A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) OUTLOOK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WITH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINING IN PLACE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST WELL INTO NEXT WEEK, THE THE NEXT
POTENTIALLY VIGOROUS SYSTEM LOOKS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST AND
MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN, THIS
LOOKS TO BE AN ANOMALOUSLY STRONG SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WITH
SIGNIFICANT KINEMATICS AND WIND SHEAR. TIMING OF THE MAIN
WARM/COLD FRONT COULD PLAY A BIG ROLE IN HOW MUCH INSTABILITY
CAN DEVELOP. STRONG TO POTENTIALLY SEVERE STORM COULD OCCUR.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...SMOKE/HAZE WITH MVFR VSBY STILL AFFECTING
KPOU INTO THIS MORNING. THE SMOKE SHOULD FINALLY DRIFT SOUTH BY
LATER THIS MORNING, WITH VSBY IMPROVING TO VFR. OTHERWISE, VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE 24 HOUR PERIOD.
THE ONLY EXCEPTION MAY BE SOME OCCASIONAL FOG AT KGFL AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW. WINDS TODAY WILL BE NORTHWEST
AROUND 7-10 KT, BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...07
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