738
FXUS61 KALY 172335
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
735 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SPC HAS CONTINUED THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO
SATURDAY EVENING. WHILE SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION
REMAINS, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED HIGHER WITH THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY
EXPECTED TOMORROW, AT LEAST FOR WESTERN AREAS. SPC HAS EXPANDED THE
5% TORNADO RISK FURTHER EAST INTO OUR AREA.
KEY MESSAGES
1) WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TOMORROW
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SOME STORMS MAY BE SEVERE WITH DAMAGING
WINDS, LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN, AND EVEN AN ISOLATED TORNADO.
2) ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TUESDAY INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN, SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1... AS OF 2:40 PM EDT...IT IS A PLEASANT
AFTERNOON ACROSS THE REGION, WITH RELATIVELY LOW HUMIDITY,
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S TO LOW 80S, AND CANADIAN WILDFIRE SMOKE
HAVING MAINLY PUSHED OFF TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION. TRANQUIL
WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE PLUME OF
SMOKE TO OUR SOUTH DOES LOOK TO LIFT BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH. INCREASING CLOUDS TONIGHT
WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN LAST NIGHT, AND
A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNRISE.
TOMORROW LOOKS LIKE A POTENTIALLY BUSY SEVERE WEATHER DAY. AS A
POTENT UPPER SHORTWAVE DIGS INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION,
AN ASSOCIATED SUB 1000 MB SFC LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE ST.
LAWRENCE VALLEY TO OUR NORTH. THE DEEPENING LOW WILL LIFT A WARM
FRONT NORTH THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT/TOMORROW MORNING,
PLACING US IN THE WARM SECTOR TOMORROW AFTERNOON. A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME CONVECTION DEVELOPING BY LATE
TOMORROW MORNING, DEPARTING TO THE EAST BY EARLY TO MID-
AFTERNOON. THEN, THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN
ANOTHER ROUND OF CONVECTION LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON AND EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH IS WHEN THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL BE. A FEW DISCRETE CELLS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE BEHIND
THE PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH AND AHEAD OF THE SECOND LINE OF STORMS.
OVERALL, GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED MORE IMPRESSIVE WITH THE AMOUNT OF
INSTABILITY TOMORROW, WITH DECENT AGREEMENT FOR AREAS WEST OF I-87
SEEING 1000-1500 J/KG OF SBCAPE WITH 500-1000 J TO THE EAST PER THE
12Z HREF. THIS WILL OVERLAP WITH IMPRESSIVE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER
THANKS TO A 35-45 KT 850 MB LLJ AND 45-50 KT WESTERLIES AT 500 MB.
WHILE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR VECTORS HAVE A FAIRLY PERPENDICULAR COMPONENT
TO THE APPROACHING FRONT, STRONG FORCING FROM THE UPPER TROUGH,
RIGHT ENTRANCE OF THE UPPER JET, AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE
ALONG THE COLD FRONT MAY RESULT IN ANY DISCRETE CELLS GROWING
UPSCALE INTO A LINE OR BROKEN LINE RELATIVELY QUICKLY. MAIN HAZARD
WILL BE DAMAGING WINDS, BUT A COUPLE OF TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
GIVEN LOW (<1000 FT) LCLS, GOOD LOW-LEVEL VEERING OF THE WINDS AND
CURVED HODOGRAPHS, AND 0-1 KM SRH OF AROUND 200 M2/S2. ISOLATED
INSTANCES OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL CAN'T BE RULED OUT WITH ANY
DISCRETE SUPERCELLS THAT DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE MAIN COLD FRONT, BUT
OVERALL THE THREAT LOOKS LOW BASED ON WARM, MOIST PROFILES AND
MEDIOCRE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES.
THAT SAID, THERE ARE STILL A FEW POTENTIAL "FAILURE MODES" THAT
COULD LIMIT THE SEVERE POTENTIAL TOMORROW. FIRST, THE PRE-
FRONTAL TROUGH LOOKS TO COME THROUGH EARLY ENOUGH THAT THE
POTENTIAL FOR IT TO RESULT IN SEVERE WEATHER LOOKS RATHER LOW,
BUT IT MAY BE LATE ENOUGH THAT THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION AND/OR
LINGERING CLOUD COVER PREVENT THE ATMOSPHERE FROM FULLY
RECOVERING/DESTABILIZING TOMORROW AFTERNOON AHEAD OF THE MAIN
COLD FRONT. THE SECOND POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTOR IS IF THE
WILDFIRE SMOKE THAT WILL BE OVERHEAD REDUCES THE AMOUNT OF
DAYTIME HEATING AND THUS THE AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY. FINALLY, THE
CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT LIKELY ARRIVES AROUND THE
I-90 CORRIDOR TOWARDS SUNSET, SO INSTABILITY MAY BE STARTING TO
WANE AT THIS POINT. ALL SAID, THERE IS A LOT OF POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW, BUT IF INGREDIENTS DON'T ALL ALIGN
PERFECTLY THEN THIS COULD LIMIT THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
SEVERE WEATHER. SPC HAS UPGRADED AREAS TO OUR WEST TO AN
ENHANCED RISK WHERE THERE WILL BE MORE INSTABILITY AND MORE
FAVORABLE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT KEPT OUR
ENTIRE AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK LIKELY DUE TO SOME OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED LIMITING FACTORS. HIGHEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE
WEATHER IN OUR AREA LOOKS TO BE FOR THE SOUTHERN ADKS, MOHAWK
VALLEY, AND CATSKILLS.
FINALLY, WILL MENTION THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT TOMORROW. WPC HAS A
MARGINAL RISK ERO FOR MOST OF OUR AREA, BUT CLIPPER OUR SOUTHERN
COUPLE COUNTIES WITH THEIR SLIGHT RISK. HEAVY RAIN IS CERTAINLY
POSSIBLE WITH PWATS EXPECTED TO RISE TO 1.75-2" TOMORROW AND WARM
CLOUD DEPTHS OF 10-12 KFT. HOWEVER, STORM MOTIONS LOOK RELATIVELY
FAST AND MOST AREAS ARE GOING ON 7-10 DAYS SINCE THE LAST
APPRECIABLE RAINFALL, SO THIS SHOULD GREATLY REDUCE/LIMIT THE THREAT
FOR FLASH FLOODING TOMORROW. IN FACT, MOST OF THE RAIN THAT
FALLS TOMORROW WILL BE QUITE BENEFICIAL. THE ONLY WAY WE FORESEE
MUCH IN THE WAY OF HYDRO ISSUES IS IF WE SEE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAIN TRACKING OVER THE MORE URBAN AREAS, SO WE WILL
MESSAGE THAT FOR THE ALY CWA THE HYDRO THREAT IS SECONDARY TO
THAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...THE COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH OUR REGION
SATURDAY NIGHT, WITH SHOWERS AND STORMS COMING TO AND END
RELATIVELY EARLY IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. SUNDAY WILL BE A
COOLER AND LESS HUMID DAY WITH DRY WEATHER. TRANQUIL WEATHER
CONTINUES INTO MONDAY WITH CONTINUED COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY, BUT
TEMPERATURES TREND BACK UP INTO THE LOW 80S FOR VALLEY AREAS.
ACTIVE WEATHER RETURNS FOR THE TUESDAY, POSSIBLY INTO WEDNESDAY
TIMEFRAME. GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT AN UNUSUALLY DEEP
UPPER TROUGH OR ULL (-2 TO -3 STD DEV PER THE NAEFS) WILL BE
TRACKING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION. AN ASSOCIATED SFC LOW
TRACKING TO THE N/NW OF OUR REGION WILL DRAG AN ATTENDANT A
COLD FRONT THROUGH OUR AREA. SHEAR AND FORCING ALREADY LOOK
FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE, SO IF THE TIMING OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE LINES
UP WITH PEAK DIURNAL HEATING THEN SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
WOULD CERTAINLY BE POSSIBLE. THAT SAID, DETAILS, INCLUDING
TIMING, REMAIN UNCERTAIN THIS FAR OUT IN TIME. SPC HAS THE D5
SLIGHT RISK EQUIVALENT AREA JUST TO THE WEST OF OUR CWA, BUT
THIS CERTAINLY BEARS WATCHING OVER THE COMING DAYS. DRIER AND
COOLER WEATHER SHOULD RETURN BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY... LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS START OFF THIS
PERIOD WITH SOME LINGERING HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. VFR
CONDITIONS AND CALM WINDS WILL PERSIST ACROSS ALL TERMINALS
THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BEFORE 11-12Z ON SATURDAY WHEN
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN. MODERATE SOUTHERLY WINDS WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-30 KTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON AT ALL TERMINALS, WITH THE RETURN OF HAZY
CONDITIONS DUE TO WILDFIRE SMOKE. SLIGHT REDUCTIONS IN VIS ARE
ANTICIPATED IN THE LATE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS DUE TO
THIS HAZE, BECOMING MARGINALLY VFR, IF NOT MVFR, AT ALL
TERMINALS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL START TO MOVE IN
ACROSS THE REGION AROUND THE SAME TIME, ALONG WITH LOW-LEVEL
CLOUDS. THERE IS GROWING CONFIDENCE THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
WILL DEVELOP THROUGHOUT SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WHICH
COULD BRING CIGS AND VIS DOWN TO IFR FOR BRIEF PERIODS AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THAT TIME. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS OVER THE FINAL FEW HOURS OF THIS TAF
PERIOD, WITH THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGHOUT
THAT TIME OUTSIDE OF SCATTERED SHOWERS.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ038-
063>066.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...35
AVIATION...23
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