167
FXUS61 KALY 181842
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
242 PM EDT SAT JUL 18 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON HAS BEEN GREATER THAN PREVIOUSLY EXPECTED. AS A RESULT, WE
HAVE NOT YET BEGUN TO DESTABILIZE. THEREFORE, THE WINDOW HOSTING THE
GREATEST PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS SHIFTED TO ABOUT 4
PM TO 11 PM IN ALIGNMENT WITH THE BEST FORCING. THIS WILL
SIGNIFICANTLY LIMIT THE TIME AVAILABLE FOR DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR
EVEN IF WE GET THE BREAKS OF SUN NECESSARY TO ACHIEVE IT. AN
ADDITIONAL LIMITING FACTOR TO THAT WILL BE SMOKE COVERAGE FROM THE
CANADIAN WILDFIRES, WHICH IS ALREADY INHIBITING HEATING UPSTREAM.
BOTTOM LINE, CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AND COVERAGE OF
POTENTIAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED FOR
TODAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AN ENHANCED (LEVEL 3 OF 5) TO SLIGHT RISK
(LEVEL 2 OF 5) FOR SEVERE WEATHER REMAINS FOR THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AND
COVERAGE HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DECREASED.
2) A MODERATE (LEVEL 1 OF 4) TO SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR FLASH
FLOODING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THIS EVENING.
WHILE ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE, URBANIZED PONDING AND
NUISANCE FLOODING WILL BE MORE LIKELY.
3) DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWIFTLY RETURN BEGINNING TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING
ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEPENING SURFACE CYCLONE
THAT IS CURRENTLY STRADDLING THE BORDER OF SOUTHEAST ONTARIO
AND SOUTHWEST QUEBEC. ALOFT, A POTENT, MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE IS
DIGGING THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES/OHIO RIVER VALLEY WITH A
SOUTHWEST MOISTURE PLUME AT ITS LEADING EDGE HELPING TO DRIVE
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS OF 0.1" TO NEARLY 1" THUS FAR. BASED ON
LATEST RADAR/SATELLITE TRENDS, A SMALL DRY SLOT IS SWIFTLY
APPROACHING DIRECTLY IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT, WHICH IS
MAKING ITS EASTWARDLY TRACK THROUGH OUR REGION NOW. WITHIN THIS
DRY SLOT LIES OUR BEST SHOT AT DESTABILIZATION.
VISIBLE SATELLITE SHOWS MODEST CLEARING ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN
NEW YORK WHERE THE WARM SECTOR OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL SYSTEM
IS BEGINNING TO ADVECT INTO. LATEST SPC HOURLY MESOSCALE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT SBCAPE HAS QUICKLY SURGED TO 2000-3500 J/KG IN THESE
AREAS COURTESY OF STRONG WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION DRIVING
TEMPERATURES INTO THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S AND DEWPOINTS INTO THE
LOW TO MID 70S. THROUGHOUT THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE
WESTERN MID-ATLANTIC, WHERE LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED
THUS FAR TODAY AND WHERE THE HEART OF THE WARM SECTOR SITS,
CONVECTION IS FIRING OFF ON ALL CYLINDERS WITH HIGHLY UNSTABLE
CONDITIONS AND STRONG SHEAR. THESE OBS ARE POTENTIALLY
INDICATIVE OF A COUPLE THINGS. FIRST, DESTABILIZATION IS
HAPPENING VERY QUICKLY WITH BREAKS IN CLOUD COVERAGE. ONE OF THE
POTENTIAL LIMITING FACTORS OF CONVECTION HEADING INTO TODAY WAS
GOING TO BE THE PRESENCE OF WILDFIRE SMOKE, AS IT WAS THOUGHT
THAT IT COULD LIMIT DAYTIME HEATING. THAT SAID, LATEST GEOCOLOR
IMAGERY SHOWS VERY LITTLE SMOKE ACROSS MOST OF THE NORTHEAST.
SO, IF WE DO GET SOME BREAKS OF CLOUD COVER WITHIN THE DRY SLOT,
WE COULD SEE AN INCREASE IN INSTABILITY FAIRLY QUICKLY. THAT
COULD INCREASE THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, BASED ON THE FAIRLY EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER THAT WE STILL
HAVE ACROSS THE AREA, WE WILL LIKELY HAVE A VERY LIMITED WINDOW
OF TIME TO DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY BEFORE THE NEXT ROUND OF
CONVECTION COMES IN. THE SECOND IS THAT NOT ONLY COULD OUR
POTENTIAL FOR DESTABILIZATION BE LIMITED BY OUR OWN EARLY
CONVECTION AND CURRENT APPRECIABLE CLOUD COVER, BUT BY THE
CONVECTION HAPPENING ALL AROUND US. HEAVY RAIN WITH SOME FAIRLY
LONG-LIVED, NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS TO OUR WEST, SOUTH, AND
SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON HAS MORE THAN
LIKELY ROBBED US OF SOME OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE THAT WOULD
HAVE OTHERWISE BEEN AVAILABLE. THEREFORE, THIS COULD NOT ONLY
POSE AN INHIBITION OF SEVERE CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING,
BUT LIMIT THE MAGNITUDE OF SEVERITY SHOULD WE GET ANY SEVERE
STORMS.
CONFIDENCE IS THEREFORE LOW IN THE OVERALL THREAT FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING DESPITE THE ENHANCED (LEVEL
3 OF 5) TO SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISKS FOR SEVERE WEATHER THAT
REMAIN IN PLACE. WHAT WE HAVE HIGH CONFIDENCE IN, IS ANOTHER ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DRIVEN BY INCREASED FORCING THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LATEST GUIDANCE INDICATES A PRE-FRONTAL
TROUGH BEGINNING ITS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN ABOUT 4-6 PM.
AS THIS FEATURE PROGRESSES, THE PARENT LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN
AND TRACK NORTHEASTWARD BENEATH THE STILL DEEPENING SHORTWAVE ALOFT.
STRENGTHENING WARM AIR AND MOISTURE ADVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH THE 30-
45KT, 850HPA LLJ WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR WILL ULTIMATELY PAIR WITH
THE INCREASED FORCING TO GENERATE CLUSTERS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD MOVE THROUGH THE REGION FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST FROM ABOUT 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM TOMORROW MORNING.
WITH AN INCREASING WIND FIELD ALOFT, THE RIGHT ENTRANCE REGION OF
THE UPPER-LEVEL JET MOVING OVERHEAD, AND 30-50KT OF 0-6KM SHEAR IN
PLACE, SOME LEVEL OF LINEAR ORGANIZATION IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.
GUSTY WINDS ARE SUBSEQUENTLY LIKELY FROM ANY SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM
THAT DEVELOPS. HOWEVER, IF WE DON'T GET THE INSTABILITY NEEDED TO
DRIVE SEVERE MAGNITUDE, DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL NOT BE
PLAUSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE LATEST NYS MESONET INDICATES ABOUT 0.1" TO NEARLY 1" OF RAIN
HAS FALLEN ACROSS THE REGION THUS FAR TODAY WITH THE GREATEST
AMOUNTS OBSERVED WITHIN PORTIONS OF THE MOHAWK VALLEY, UPPER-
HUDSON VALLEY, AND MID-HUDSON VALLEY/TACONICS. THE WEATHER
PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED THE SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TONIGHT WITH A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 4) ELSEWHERE. WHILE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS ANTICIPATED THIS AFTERNOON WITH EMBEDDED
MODERATE TO HEAVY DOWNPOURS, LATEST FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
VERY FAST STORM MOTIONS WHICH SHOULD MITIGATE THE THREAT FOR
FLASH FLOODING IN MOST CASES. THAT SAID, THE AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS THAT HAVE HAD THE MOST RAIN SO FAR TODAY WILL HOLD THE
GREATEST RISK OF ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING SHOULD THEY GET HIT
AGAIN WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING. BUT, WITH DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS AND 1 HR FFG
AROUND 2" TO NEARLY 3" PER HOUR, THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY OF
EVEN ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION.
KEY MESSAGE 3...
ONCE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, DRY CONDITIONS
WILL REGAIN HOLD OF THE REGION TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND AND
BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL EVEN BE PLEASANTLY
JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS WEEK, SO THERE ARE NO
CONCERNS FOR OPPRESSIVE HEAT AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID, ADDITIONAL
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME BEGINNING
TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN A BROAD TROUGH PATTERN THROUGH MUCH OF
THE WEEK. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE WETTEST DAYS AT
THIS TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS THE AREA, ALL IN ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM FRONT
THAT IS LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA. WHILE VSBY RESTRICTIONS HAVE
OCCURRED WITH THIS ACTIVITY, STRONGER, MORE CONCENTRATED
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON AHEAD OF
THE THE MAIN COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER TONIGHT.
STORMS, OUT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, SHOULD TRACK FROM NW TO SE
BETWEEN 21Z TO 02Z. THERE REMAINS HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO
MENTION TEMPOS AT ALL TAF SITES FOR THE TSRA, WITH STRONG WINDS
AND IFR CONDITIONS. CONDITIONS WILL ALSO LOWER TO MVFR/IFR THIS
EVENING AS A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION, THEN GRADUALLY
IMPROVE TOWARDS 12Z SUNDAY. WINDS WILL BECOME SOUTHERLY AND
INCREASE TO 10-15 KT AFTER THE WARM FRONT PASSES, HOWEVER
STRONGER GUSTS WILL LIKELY REMAIN CONFINED TO THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ032-033-
038>043-047>054-058>061-063>066-082>084.
MA...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...32
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