313
FXUS61 KALY 190518
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
118 AM EDT SUN JUL 19 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
AS OF 720 PM...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM IS TRACKING INTO THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS EARLY THIS EVENING AND WE ISSUED A SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM WARNING VALID THROUGH 8PM WITH AREAS OF RAIN
SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AHEAD OF AN INCOMING COLD FRONT. THE SEVERE
STORM IS TRACKING INTO AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT SO IT LIKELY
WILL WEAKEN AS IT NEARS THE MID- HUDSON VALLEY. WE WILL MAINTAIN
A CLOSE EYE OVER THE COMING HOURS; HOWEVER, THE WINDOW FOR
SEVERE WEATHER IS QUICKLY COMING TO A CLOSE AS THE COLD FRONT
APPROACHES. ANY SEVERE STORMS WILL LIKELY BE BEFORE 10PM.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AREAS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS EVENING WILL END OVERNIGHT
AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST.
2) DRY CONDITIONS RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND INTO THE
BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK BEFORE ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS SWIFTLY RETURN BEGINNING TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
LATEST RADAR IMAGERY SHOWS AREAS OF SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH
LIGHTNING MAINLY NEAR AND SOUTH OF I-90 WHERE INSTABILITY IS A
LITTLE STRONGER. TODAY'S SEVERE WEATHER THREAT ENDED UP BEING
MUCH LOWER THAN PREVIOUS ANTICIPATED AS A WARM FRONT REMAINED
STALLED TO OUR SOUTH/WEST. THIS KEPT MIST/FOG AND LOW CLOUDS
AROUND MUCH OF THE DAY, SEVERELY LIMITED INSTABILITY. SMOKE
FROM THE CANADIAN WILDFIRES ALSO RESULTED IN LOWER VISIBILITY
AND REDUCED AIR QUALITY. WHILE WE CANNOT RULE OUT LIGHTNING
STRIKES THROUGH 9-10 PM INCLUDING IN AREAS OF STRATIFORM RAIN,
THE THREAT FOR SEVERE STORMS HAS MAINLY ENDED. THE MAIN COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH INTO OUR WESTERN ADIRONDACK AREAS TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUE PUSHING SOUTH AND EASTWARD ACROSS EASTERN
NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST AND TURN BREEZY ONCE THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES (GUSTS UP TO 20-25KTS) WITH BREEZY WINDS CONTINUING INTO
SUNDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
ONCE THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT, DRY CONDITIONS
WILL REGAIN HOLD OF THE REGION TO FINISH OUT THE WEEKEND AND
BEGIN THE NEW WORK WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL EVEN BE PLEASANTLY
JUST BELOW OR NEAR SEASONABLE THROUGH THIS WEEK, SO THERE ARE NO
CONCERNS FOR OPPRESSIVE HEAT AT THIS TIME. THAT SAID,
ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL COME
BEGINNING TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN A BROAD TROUGH PATTERN THROUGH
MUCH OF THE WEEK. TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY LOOK TO BE THE WETTEST
DAYS AT THIS TIME WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ADDITIONAL SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY DEPENDING ON THE TIMING OF THE NEXT
FRONTAL SYSTEM.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
AREAS THROUGH 09Z THIS MORNING. VFR VSBY WITH OCCASIONAL MVFR
CIGS WILL DEVELOP AS THE FRONT PUSHES THROUGH AND A FEW HOURS
BEHIND THE FRONT. CLOUDS SHOULD SCOUR OUT BY 12Z, BUT COULD
LINGER A FEW MORE HOURS WITH NW UPSLOPE FLOW AT KPSF. VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY AS
DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FROM THE NORTH/WEST. WINDS WILL BECOME
NORTHWEST AND INCREASE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TO 10-13 KT WITH
GUSTS OF 20-25 KT THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...AIR QUALITY ALERT UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR NYZ038.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12/31
AVIATION...07
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