272
FXUS61 KALY 201819
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
219 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE NIGHT GIVEN FAVORABLE
RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, AND ADDED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THROUGH
SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK. LOWERED DEW POINTS THIS AFTERNOON, AND
BUMPED UP S/SE WIND GUSTS TUESDAY AS WELL AS W/NW WIND GUSTS
WEDNESDAY BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK FOR
SEVERE STORMS FURTHER INTO OUR AREA FOR TUESDAY, BUT THERE REMAINS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WHETHER OR NOT WE WILL SEE MUCH IN THE
WAY OF SEVERE WEATHER DUE TO A LACK OF INSTABILITY AND CAPPING
INVERSION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) AFTER A QUIET DAY TODAY, WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SOME STORMS MAY BE STRONG TO SEVERE,
BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW IN THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL AT THIS
TIME.
2) TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED THURSDAY THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...AS OF 3:10 AM EDT...CURRENT SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS
A 1014 MB SFC HIGH LOCATED OVER WESTERN NY BUILDING EASTWARDS.
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AND DIMINISHING WINDS, THIS HAS ALLOWED
FOR FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS WITH TEMPERATURES
IN THE 40S TO 50 PER LATEST NYS MESONET AND ASOS OBS. SOME
PATCHY RADIATION FOG IS EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT
SHOULD DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS
OVERHEAD TODAY, RESULTING IN A QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH WITH HIGHS
CLIMBING INTO THE UPPER 70S TO LOW 80S UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES. LOW HUMIDITY WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COMFORTABLE DAY.
TONIGHT, A LOW 990S MB SFC LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS ONTARIO AND INTO
QUEBEC IN ASSOCIATION WITH AN POTENT UPPER TROUGH. THE SYSTEM'S WARM
FRONT WILL ATTEMPT TO LIFT NORTHWARDS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY,
BUT LIKELY REMAINS HUNG UP TO OUR SOUTH UNTIL LATE TUESDAY
AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. ONCE IT LIFTS NORTH, THIS WILL
BRIEFLY PLACE SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF OUR REGION IN THE WARM SECTOR
BEFORE AN INITIAL COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY
NIGHT. SOME SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER WILL BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE WARM ADVECTION/ISENTROPIC LIFT TUESDAY
MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE EVENING AND EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT, BUT THE SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL LOOKS QUITE
MUDDLED AT THIS TIME...
LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER WIND SHEAR BOTH LOOK QUITE IMPRESSIVE WITH
LONG CURVED HODOGRAPHS. HOWEVER, INSTABILITY LOOKS TO BE A LIMITING
FACTOR WITH <500 J/KG OF SBCAPE FOR MOST OF THE REGION, EXCEPT NEAR
THE I-84 CORRIDOR WHERE 500-1000 J/KG IS POSSIBLE IN THE NARROW WARM
SECTOR TUESDAY EVENING. BUFKIT MODEL SOUNDINGS ALSO SHOW QUITE
A BIT OF CIN AND WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES, EVEN FOR AREAS IN
THE WARM SECTOR. THE OTHER LIMITING FACTOR IS THAT THIS INITIAL
COLD FRONT DOESN'T ARRIVE UNTIL AFTER SUNSET. UPPER FORCING
LOOKS QUITE STRONG, BUT WE DON'T HAVE A LOT OF CONFIDENCE THAT
THIS WILL BE ABLE TO COMPENSATE FOR THIS MYRIAD OF LIMITING
FACTORS. SPC HAS EXPANDED THE SLIGHT RISK TO INCLUDE THE ADKS,
CAPITAL DISTRICT, AND AREAS SOUTH AND WEST, BUT THIS SEEMS QUITE
AGGRESSIVE GIVEN THE LACK OF INSTABILITY AND CAPPING INVERSION
THAT WILL BE IN PLACE. OUR THINKING IS THAT THE HIGHEST CHANCE
FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS FOR THE I-84 CORRIDOR, SOUTHEASTERN
CATSKILLS, AND FAR WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY, WITH ONLY A LOW CHANCE
FOR THE REST OF THE REGION.
SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN APPEARS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO
TUESDAY NIGHT WITH WARM CLOUD DEPTHS AROUND 12 KFT AND PWATS
APPROACHING 2". STORM MOTIONS LOOKS FAST, ALTHOUGH SOME
TRAINING/BACKBUILDING OF STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH FLOW
ALOFT PARALLEL TO THE APPROACHING COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY. 00Z
HREF IS SHOWING A 10% CHANCE FOR 3" OF RAIN IN 3 HRS ACROSS THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY, EASTERN CATSKILLS, AND SOUTHWESTERN NEW
ENGLAND TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS IS A FAIRLY STRONG SIGNAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN, SO IT WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON. THIS
AREA DID SEE AROUND AN INCH OF RAIN A COUPLE DAYS AGO, BUT
HAVING A COUPLE OF DRY DAYS COMBINED WITH ONGOING RAINFALL
DEFICITS SHOULD HELP LOWER THE RISK OF HYDRO ISSUES OUTSIDE OF
THE URBAN AREAS. WPC HAS PLACED OUR REGION IN A MARGINAL RISK
ERO TUESDAY, BUT HEAVY RAIN THREAT APPEARS HIGHEST FOR THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.
FOR WEDNESDAY, THE DEEPER MOISTURE WILL HAVE BEEN PUSHED OFF TO OUR
EAST BY THE TUESDAY NIGHT COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE, BUT SOME GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS WE MAY SEE ANOTHER SURGE OF WARM/MOIST AIR AHEAD OF
THE NEXT (AND MUCH STRONGER) COLD FRONT. TIMING OF THE FRONT
LOOKS TOO EARLY FOR MUCH OF A SEVERE THREAT FOR OUR WESTERN
AREAS, BUT WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND POSSIBLY THE TACONICS MAY SEE
ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS. FOR THESE AREAS,
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR STILL LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE WITH 30-40 KT,
ALTHOUGH HODOGRAPHS ARE MUCH STRAIGHTER COMPARED TO TUESDAY.
GUIDANCE HAS TRENDED SLIGHTLY SLOWER WITH THIS COLD FRONT OVER
THE LAST FEW RUNS, AND IF THIS TREND CONTINUES THEN THAT COULD
INCREASE THE SEVERE THREAT WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGE 2...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER
THE REGION THURSDAY AND FRIDAY UNDER W/NW FLOW AND VERY WEAK, BROAD
UPPER TROUGHING. THIS WILL RESULT IN TRANQUIL WEATHER. TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY MAY END UP A FEW DEGREES BELOW NORMAL, BUT SHOULD WARM TO
NEAR NORMAL LEVELS FRIDAY WITH HEIGHTS ALOFT CONTINUING TO RISE.
TRANQUIL WEATHER SHOULD CONTINUE INTO NEXT WEEKEND WITH A LACK OF
SYNOPTIC FORCING, ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY BEGIN TO
NUDGE UPWARD SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AS THE SFC HIGH SLIDES OFF TO
OUR EAST.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/TUESDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS ALL THE
TERMINALS THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON WITH FEW AND SCATTERED
CUMULUS AND HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUDS. AS CLOUDS BEGIN TO LOWER AND
INCREASE IN COVERAGE TONIGHT, SOME LOW STRATUS AND/OR FOG/MIST COULD
DEVELOP AT SOME OF THE TERMINALS. WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM RAIN SHOWERS
WILL THEN BEGIN TOMORROW MID TO LATE MORNING BECOMING STEADIER INTO
THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS TO OUR NORTH WITH AN
ASSOCIATED WARM FRONT. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY ACCOMPANY THE
ONSET OF SHOWERS AND LIKELY LOWER TO IFR FOR PERIODS BETWEEN 14Z-18Z
ACROSS ALL THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
CONFIDENCE LOOKS TOO LOW TO EXPLICITLY MENTION THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
TAFS FOR THIS CYCLE. WINDS THIS AFTERNOON REMAIN FROM THE SOUTHWEST
WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KT AND AN OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 15 KT, ESPECIALLY
AT KGFL. TONIGHT WINDS SHIFT MORE SOUTHERLY 4-8 KT BEFORE PICKING UP
AND FURTHER SHIFTING OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST WITH SPEEDS 10-15 KT AND
GUSTS UP TO 25 KT BY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...53
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