573
FXUS61 KALY 202317
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
717 PM EDT MON JUL 20 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF RAIN AND POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL
TRACK THROUGH THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY, BRINGING THE
THREAT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING FROM HEAVY
RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COMPLEX WEATHER SYSTEM WILL IMPACT EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW THROUGH WEDNESDAY. INITIALLY, WARM AIR
ADVECTION SHOWERS WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION TOMORROW MORNING
INTO EARLY TOMORROW AFTERNOON BENEATH AN UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE
PULSING THROUGH A PARENT TROUGH WHOSE AXIS WILL STILL BE
SITUATED UPSTREAM THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO RIVER VALLEY.
MOST OF THESE INITIAL SHOWERS SHOULD BE LIGHT, THOUGH INCREASED
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT COULD HELP TO MAKE FOR SOME LOCALLY MODERATE
RATES. THEN, IN THE EARLY TO MID-LATE AFTERNOON, AS WE GET INTO
THE CONVERGENT ZONE OF THE ANTICYCLONICALLY CURVED JET ALOFT,
WE'LL GET A BRIEF BREAK BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND
POTENTIAL THUNDERSTORMS TRACK THROUGH THE REGION.
THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS MAINTAINED THE MARGINAL (LEVEL 1
OF 5) TO SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TOMORROW
FOR THIS NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS AND STORMS GIVEN THE LEVEL OF
DEEP- LAYER SHEAR WITHIN THE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS
VERY LOW IN THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT FOR TOMORROW GIVEN
NUMEROUS FACTORS: 1) EXTENSIVE CLOUD COVER, 2) A
CONTAMINATED/STABILIZED ENVIRONMENT GIVEN THE EARLY SHOWERS, 3)
DELAYED TIMING OF THE INCOMING WARM FRONT THAT WILL LIMIT OUR
TIME IN THE TRUE WARM SECTOR AND, SUBSEQUENTLY, OUR ABILITY TO
TRULY DESTABILIZE, AND 4) A DECENT CAPPING INVERSION THAT MAY
KEEP ALL STORMS ELEVATED IN NATURE. THAT SAID, IF THE FRONT IS A
LITTLE QUICKER THAN WHAT THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS, WE COULD
HAVE SOME STRONGER STORMS THAT PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND
GUSTS.
THE MAIN THREAT PARTICULARLY WITH THIS SECOND ROUND OF SHOWERS
AND STORMS, AND ANY ADDITIONAL ROUNDS THAT OCCUR OVERNIGHT, IS
HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD RESULT IN ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
OUR FFG IS ABOUT 2" TO 2.5" IN THREE HOURS, WHICH SEEMS HIGH,
BUT COULD BE ATTAINABLE GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAINING SHOWERS
AND STORMS. IF THE SAME AREAS GET HIT MULTIPLE TIMES WITH
RAINFALL, THIS COULD LEAD TO MORE THAN JUST NUISANCE ISSUES.
THIS IS PARTICULARLY TRUE LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON INTO THE
EVENING. PWATS ARE SEEN INCREASING TO NEARLY 2" OR GREATER
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. STRONG FORCING FROM THE PARENT TROUGH
ALOFT AND A SURFACE WAVE THAT WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL DRIVE EFFICIENT PRECIPITATION PROCESSES
WHICH COULD LEAD TO 1" PER HOUR RATES EVEN JUST BRIEFLY. LATEST
ENSEMBLES SHOW A LOW PROBABILITY OF THIS, BUT GIVEN THE SIGNALS
FOR POTENTIAL TRAINING AND THE FAIRLY WET ANTECEDENT
CONDITIONS, AN ISOLATED FLASH FLOOD CANNOT BE RULED OUT
PARTICULARLY IN THE MID-HUDSON VALLEY AND SOUTHWEST NEW
ENGLAND.
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY
DECREASING IN SPATIAL SPREAD THROUGHOUT THE DAY WEDNESDAY.
BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW WILL FORCE SHOWERS TO BECOME LIMITED TO
HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE DRY
CONDITIONS RETURN REGIONWIDE. AT THIS TIME, QPF RANGES FROM
ABOUT 0.5" TO 1.25" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF 1.5"
POSSIBLE. THESE AMOUNTS COULD BE SUPERSEDED, HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
AFOREMENTIONED OUTCOMES.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/WED, VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVERNIGHT. ON
TUESDAY, A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST BRINGING
SEVERAL BANDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DAY.
CIGS ARE EXPECTED TO VARY BETWEEN VFR AND MVFR FROM LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, WITH VSBYS MAINLY VFR OUTSIDE OF ANY
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS, WITH PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR VSBYS DURING
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.
LIGHT/VARIABLE WINDS OVERNIGHT EXCEPT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 5-10
KT AT KALB WILL BECOME SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST AT 8-12 KT WITH SOME
GUSTS UP TO 25-30 KT POSSIBLE FROM MID MORNING TUESDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL BE MUCH STRONGER, AND VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION NEAR AND WITHIN ANY THUNDERSTORMS, ESPECIALLY DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...12
AVIATION...24
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