536
FXUS61 KALY 220511
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
111 AM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
TORNADO WATCH #507 CANCELLED. REDUCED RAINFALL CHANCES FOR THE
NEXT FEW HOURS ACROSS MOST OF SOUTHERN VT, WESTERN MA, AND EASTERN
NY OUTSIDE OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY AND SE CATSKILLS GIVEN
CURRENT RADAR TRENDS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NYS WILL
TRACK EASTWARD LATER THIS EVENING, THOUGH SHOULD BE WEAKENING
IN INTENSITY, WITH SHOWERS/STORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
REDEVELOPING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY, SE
CATSKILLS AND NW CT LATER THIS EVENING.
2) TRANQUIL WEATHER WITH TEMPERATURES TRENDING SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL
THURSDAY INTO THIS WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 8 PM EDT, BAND OF SHOWERS/STORMS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM
ADVECTIVE REGIME HAS SHIFTED MAINLY EAST OF THE REGION. HOWEVER,
ADDITIONAL ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
NE PA WILL CONTINUE EXPANDING NORTHEAST THIS EVENING. ADDITIONAL
LOCALLY HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE AS THEY
EXPAND INTO THE MID HUDSON VALLEY, SE CATSKILLS AND NW CT
REGION.
ELSEWHERE, SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS WESTERN NY WILL
CONTINUE TRACKING EAST/NORTHEAST, REACHING THE SW ADIRONDACKS
AND WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY LATER THIS EVENING, AND POSSIBLY AS
FAR EAST AS THE CAPITAL REGION, SCHOHARIE COUNTY AND LAKE GEORGE
REGION TOWARD OR JUST AFTER MIDNIGHT. ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT
SOME SPOTTY GUSTY WINDS WITH THIS CONVECTION, WIDESPREAD SEVERE
WEATHER LOOKS UNLIKELY GIVEN LOSS OF DIURNAL HEATING.
PATCHY/AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS
WHICH RECEIVED PRIOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
THE WARM SECTOR SHIFTS EASTWARD TOMORROW AS THE MAIN COLD FRONT
AND TROUGH AXIS SWINGS INTO THE NORTHEAST. GIVEN THE EARLY
ARRIVAL OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE EASTERN NY BY 15 - 18
UTC, THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THE WARM SECTOR TO HAVE ENOUGH TIME
TO DESTABILIZE BEFORE THE STRONGEST FORCING ARRIVES LOOK TO BE
IN AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE HUDSON RIVER, ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN
NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST DAY 2 SPC OUTLOOK CONTINUES TO PLACE A
MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER IN SOUTHERN
BERKSHIRE AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES WHERE THERE IS A FAVORABLE
OVERLAP OF 500-1000J/KG OF SB CAPE AND 40-45KTS OF DEEP LAYER
SHEAR. LATEST CAMS SHOWS AN INITIAL LINE OF SHOWERS DEVELOPING
ALONG THE INCOMING COLD FRONT LATE MORNING THAT GROWS UPSCALE
INTO LINE SEGMENTS AND STORM CLUSTERS AS IT ENTERS WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND AND THE MORE UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT MAINLY AFTER 17-18
UTC. DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALSO AGAIN BE THE MAIN HAZARD THROUGH
LATE AFTERNOON BEFORE THE FRONT FINALLY PUSHES EASTWARD INTO
NEW ENGLAND. OTHERWISE, HUMIDITY WILL TREND DOWNWARDS BEHIND
THE COLD FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH CLEARING
SKIES.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WE WILL ENJOY A STRETCH OF PLEASANT AND DRY WEATHER THURSDAY
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES TREND UPWARDS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OFF SHORE PROMOTING SOUTHWESTERLY RETURN FLOW
BUT WE DO NOT EXPECT OPPRESSIVE HEAT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE
APPROACHES LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THERE IS
STILL UNCERTAINTY ON TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF ANY SHOWERS OR
CONVECTION.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS AS OF 1:10 AM EDT ARE MVFR
AT GFL/POU/PSF BUT REMAIN VFR AT ALB. TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE
NIGHT WILL BE FOR LOWERING CIGS TO MVFR WITH SOME POCKETS OF IFR.
BEST CHANCE FOR IFR SEEMS TO BE AT POU/PSF WHERE THERE WAS MORE RAIN
TODAY. LOW CONFIDENCE ON HOW WIDESPREAD LOW STRATUS AND IFR CIGS
WILL BE, HOWEVER, GIVEN 4-7 KT WIND EXPECTED THROUGH THE REST OF
TONIGHT. CIGS BEGIN TO LIFT AROUND 12Z, BUT EXPECTING A FEW HOURS OF
MVFR CIGS AROUND 2500 FT AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 14-16Z UNTIL A
COLD FRONT TRACKS THROUGH AND MIXES OUT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE.
THERE COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS OR AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM WITH THIS
FRONT AT POU/PSF LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON, HENCE
INCLUSION OF VCSH GROUPS. BEHIND THE FRONT, PREVAILING VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH FEW
TO SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND. 4-7 KT SOUTH WIND EXPECTED THROUGH
THE REST OF TONIGHT, INCREASING TO 5-10 KT AFTER 12Z, THEN WINDS
SWITCH TO THE WEST AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT BETWEEN 14-16Z, CONTINUING THROUGH AROUND SUNSET. AFTER
SUNSET, WINDS AND GUSTS DIMINISH TO 5 KT OR LESS AT POU/GFL AND TO
AROUND 5-8 KT AT ALB/PSF THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...24/31
AVIATION...35
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