647
FXUS61 KALY 221737
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY AREAS, FOR TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT GIVEN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TODAY'S 16 UTC SPC OUTLOOK REMOVED OUR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND COUNTIES FROM THE MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRETCH OF DRY AND VERY PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WE WILL ENJOY A STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY AS
BROAD AND WEAK TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SFC SUPPORTING VERY COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE GREAT OPPORTUNITIES TO OPEN THE WINDOWS
AS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
LIKELY DEVELOP IN TYPICALLY VALLEY AREAS BOTH NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS ALSO CREEPING UPWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF SHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS A MILDER
AIR MASS NORTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY FOR TEMPERATURES
TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES REMAINS VERY LOW (UNDER 20%) SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HEATRISK
ALSO ONLY IN THE "MINOR" CATEGORY. WEAK TROUGHING RETURNS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORTING SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE ARE SIGNS FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO SWING INTO THE
NORTHEAST IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. WHILE THERE
IS STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
BOTH DAYS, THE PROBABILITY FOR HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS (GREATER
THAN 1 INCH IN A 24HR PERIOD) REMAINS VERY LOW.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...FLYING CONDITIONS RANGE FROM IFR AT ALB/GFL
TO MVFR AT PSF AND VFR AT POU AS OF 6:30 AM EDT. LOW STRATUS SHOULD
BEGIN TO LIFT BEFORE THE START OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD, BUT A FEW
HOURS OF MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 14-15Z UNTIL A COLD FRONT
COMES THROUGH AND MIXES OUT THE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE COLD FRONT AT ALB/GFL THIS MORNING, SO HAVE
ADDED THIS IN THE TEMPO GROUPS THAT COVER MVFR CIGS. A FEW SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE AT POU/PSF LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON,
AND HAVE CONTINUED VCSH GROUPS FOR THIS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, LOW
JUST FEW TO SCT MID-LEVEL CLOUDS THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT BEFORE SKIES
CLEAR. SOME PATCHY FOG/MIST IS POSSIBLE AT GFL LATE TONIGHT AS WINDS
BECOME CALM.
WINDS TO START THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE AT 5-10 KT FROM THE SW, BUT
SWITCH TO THE WEST AT 10-15 KT BETWEEN 14-16Z WITH GUSTS TO 20-30 KT
EXPECTED THROUGH MUCH OF TODAY. GUSTS DIMINISH WITHIN A COUPLE HOURS
AFTER SUNSET, WITH WINDS BECOMING CALM AS WELL BETWEEN 04-07Z.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...35
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