600
FXUS61 KALY 221749
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
149 PM EDT WED JUL 22 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY AREAS, FOR TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT GIVEN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS. TODAY'S 16 UTC SPC OUTLOOK REMOVED OUR WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND COUNTIES FROM THE MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 5) RISK.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRETCH OF DRY AND VERY PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WE WILL ENJOY A STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY AS
BROAD AND WEAK TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SFC SUPPORTING VERY COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE GREAT OPPORTUNITIES TO OPEN THE WINDOWS
AS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
LIKELY DEVELOP IN TYPICALLY VALLEY AREAS BOTH NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS ALSO CREEPING UPWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF SHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS A MILDER
AIR MASS NORTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY FOR TEMPERATURES
TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES REMAINS VERY LOW (UNDER 20%) SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HEATRISK
ALSO ONLY IN THE "MINOR" CATEGORY. WEAK TROUGHING RETURNS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORTING SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE ARE SIGNS FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO SWING INTO THE
NORTHEAST IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. WHILE THERE
IS STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
BOTH DAYS, THE PROBABILITY FOR HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS (GREATER
THAN 1 INCH IN A 24HR PERIOD) REMAINS VERY LOW.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THIS TAF PERIOD. WESTERLY WINDS
WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KTS WILL PERSIST THROUGHOUT THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING, BEFORE BEGINNING TO WEAKEN AFTER
23Z-00Z. LOW- TO MID-LEVEL CLOUDS WILL STICK AROUND AT ALL
TERMINALS THROUGH SUNSET BEFORE CLEARING, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
KPOU WHICH IS EXPECTED TO HAVE SOME LINGERING MID-LEVEL AND HIGH
CLOUDS THROUGHOUT THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. WITH CLEARING SKIES AND
CALM WINDS, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF
FOG AT KGFL AND KPSF WHICH COULD DROP VIS TO IFR, REFLECTED BY
TEMPO GROUPS FROM 08-09Z THROUGH 12Z ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL
BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY STRENGTHEN BUT REMAIN LIGHT AFTER 12Z
THURSDAY, STARTING TO VEER TO OUT OF THE NORTH TO NORTHWEST AT
KALB AND KPOU OVER THE LAST SEVERAL HOURS OF THIS TAF PERIOD.
WINDS AT KGFL AND KPSF ARE EXPECTED TO STAY OUT OF THE WEST TO
SOUTHWEST THROUGHOUT THAT TIME.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...23
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