494
FXUS61 KALY 230538
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
138 AM EDT THU JUL 23 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
ADDED PATCHY FOG, ESPECIALLY IN VALLEY AREAS, FOR TONIGHT AND
ESPECIALLY TOMORROW NIGHT GIVEN FAVORABLE RADIATIONAL COOLING
CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A STRETCH OF DRY AND VERY PLEASANT WEATHER THROUGH FRIDAY
BEFORE TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND
INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
WE WILL ENJOY A STRETCH OF QUIET WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY AS
BROAD AND WEAK TROUGH REMAINS IN PLACE ALOFT WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING AT THE SFC SUPPORTING VERY COMFORTABLE
TEMPERATURES AND LOW HUMIDITY. LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND
TOMORROW NIGHT WILL BE GREAT OPPORTUNITIES TO OPEN THE WINDOWS
AS IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL SUPPORT OVERNIGHT
TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 40S AND 50S. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO
LIKELY DEVELOP IN TYPICALLY VALLEY AREAS BOTH NIGHT.
TEMPERATURES TREND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL THIS WEEKEND WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS ALSO CREEPING UPWARDS EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFF SHORE AND SOUTHWEST FLOW ADVECTS A MILDER
AIR MASS NORTHEASTWARD. HOWEVER, THE PROBABILITY FOR TEMPERATURES
TO EXCEED 90 DEGREES REMAINS VERY LOW (UNDER 20%) SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WITH HEATRISK
ALSO ONLY IN THE "MINOR" CATEGORY. WEAK TROUGHING RETURNS
SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK SUPPORTING SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE
POPS FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
THERE ARE SIGNS FOR A STRONGER SHORTWAVE TO SWING INTO THE
NORTHEAST IN THE TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY TIME PERIOD. WHILE THERE
IS STRONG CONSENSUS AMONG THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE FOR MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION TO OCCUR ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
BOTH DAYS, THE PROBABILITY FOR HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS (GREATER
THAN 1 INCH IN A 24HR PERIOD) REMAINS VERY LOW.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 06Z/FRI...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE
OHIO VALLEY AND THE GREAT LAKES REGION THIS MORNING WITH VFR
CONDITIONS FOR KGFL/KALB/KPSF/KPOU. SOME LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUE IN THE 6-8 KFT AGL
LAYER FOR KALB/KGFL...AND THEY MAY EXTEND INTO KPSF BETWEEN
06Z-09Z/THU. FURTHER SOUTH, SOME HIGH CLOUDS ARE LINGERING NEAR
KPOU. THE TREND WILL BE FOR THE CLOUDS TO DECREASE FOR KALB-
KGFL BETWEEN 08Z-11Z/THU AND THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE FOR SOME
RADIATIVE SHALLOW MIST OR FOG WITH CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM
WIND. KPSF MAY GET SOME SOME SCT UPSLOPE CLOUDS WITH THE LAKE
MOISTURE IN THE MVFR RANGE, AND WE WENT BKN WITH SOME
STRATOCUMULUS 09-13Z/THU BEFORE CLEARING CONTINUING THE TREND
FROM THE PREVIOUS TAF CYCLE. THE STRONG SUBSIDENCE FROM THE
ANTICYCLONE RIDGING IN WILL YIELD MOSTLY SUNNY/SUNNY SKIES WITH
FEW-SCT FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS IN THE 4-6 KFT AGL RANGE FROM THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH CLEARING SKIES TOWARD
00Z/FRI. WEST/NORTHWEST WINDS 3-6 KT EARLY THIS MORNING WILL
BECOME LIGHT TO CALM. THE WINDS WILL VARY FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHWEST AT 5-10 KT IN THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT TO SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...15
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