859
FXUS61 KALY 240536
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
136 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT FROM THE
NBM DUE TO EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. ALSO
CONTINUED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG IN FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW
HUMIDITY EXPECTED THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
2) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE LATE MONDAY
INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, AND
TAKE RESIDENCE ACROSS THE NORTHEAST CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS PATTERN WILL RESULT IN DRY CONDITIONS, LIGHT WINDS, MOSTLY
SUNNY/CLEAR SKIES, COOL NIGHTS, SEASONABLY WARM DAYS AND
COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY LEVELS. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN
THE 40S(MOUNTAINS) TO 50S(LOWER ELEVATIONS) THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. THE AIR MASS WILL GRADUALLY WARM, ALTHOUGH EVEN SAT/SUN
HIGHS SHOULD ONLY REACH THE MID 80S IN VALLEY LOCATIONS, WHICH
IS NEAR NORMAL FOR LATE JULY. THERE WILL ALSO LIKELY BE PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING EACH NIGHT IN FAVORED SHELTERED VALLEYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE PATTERN LOOKS TO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED EARLY TO MIDDLE OF
NEXT WEEK, AS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS
SE CANADA, THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHEAST. A LEAD SHORT-WAVE
TROUGH BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS ON MON,
FOLLOWED BY MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY ON TUE AS A SURFACE WAVE
POTENTIALLY TRACKS EAST ACROSS THE AREA. SEVERE WEATHER
POTENTIAL IS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME DUE TO QUESTIONABLE
INSTABILITY/SHEAR AND TIMING. PWATS FORECAST TO REMAIN WITHIN 1
STDEV OF NORMAL, SO ANY LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE
MODULATED BY WHERE CONVECTION OCCURS. THE SHOWERS/T-STORMS COULD
LINGER INTO WED IF THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES SLOWER, ALTHOUGH
LATEST TRENDS INDICATE A MORE PROGRESSIVE TROUGH.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THRU 06Z/SAT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SETTLED IN OVER UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.
SOME RADIATIVE MIST/FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN
06Z-10Z/FRI WHERE TEMP-DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARE CLOSE TO ZERO. WE
ARE EXPECTING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE MIST/FOG. WE USED A
TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 07Z-11Z/KPSF AND WENT WITH LIFR MIST/FOG
AND STRATUS AT KGFL FROM 08Z-11Z/FRI. LESS CONFIDENT FOR DENSE
MIST/FOG AT KALB/KPOU. SOME SHALLOW MIST/FOG MAY BRIEFLY FORM AT
KALB...WHEREAS KPOU WE USED A TEMPO GROUP 08-11Z/FRI FOR SOME
MVFR MIST (~4 SM). THE MIST/FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL THE TAF SITES FROM
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW CUMULUS AND
A FEW-SCT CIRRUS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHWEST/WEST AT LESS THAN 7 KT FROM THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM BY AROUND
00Z/SAT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...CHANCE TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...15
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