038
FXUS61 KALY 240640
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
240 AM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUED THE TREND TO LOWER MIN TEMPS BELOW THE NBM GUIDANCE
TONIGHT DUE TO RADIATIVE COOLING FROM THE SURFACE ANTICYLONE
NEARBY. ALSO CONTINUED MENTION OF PATCHY MIST/FOG IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANCES
WITH THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
2) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE LATE MON THRU
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 240 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A 1025 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER NY AND
NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. SOME
PATCHY RADIATIVE MIST/FOG IN THE MAJOR AND SHELTERED VALLEYS
WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER A COOL START IN THE
40S AND 50S, EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN
YESTERDAY WITH SHALLOW MIXING DEPTHS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
CONDITIONS DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC HIGH. HUMIDITY
LEVELS REMAIN COMFORTABLE. TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING
CONDITIONS WITH FOG IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN. WE WENT
WITH A MAVMOS/NBM BLEND AND TRENDED COOLER WITH MIN TEMPS OVER
THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH 40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH OF THE CAPITAL
REGION...AND MAINLY LOWER TO MID 50S TO THE SOUTH. THE UPCOMING
WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SLIGHT MODERATION AND WARMING TREND IN
TEMPS, AS THE SFC ANTICYLONE SLOWLY MOVES DOWNSTREAM NEAR THE
GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY. AN ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWER OR T-STORM IS
POSSIBLE NEAR THE WESTERN DACKS. OTHERWISE, DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S
TO LOWER 50S OVER THE MTNS, AND MAINLY THE 50S IN THE VALLEYS
WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID
80S IN THE VALLEYS/HILLS AND 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL FOR LATE JULY (I.E.
NORMAL HIGH FOR ALBANY IS 84F CURRENTLY). THE FAIR AND DRY
WEATHER LOOKS TO END BY MON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETS-UP MON THROUGH THE MID-
WEEK. INITIALLY, NORTHWEST FLOW SETS-UP ALOFT WITH A WARM
FRONT/DEWPOINTS BOUNDARY AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE APPROACHING FROM
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. DEWPOINTS
RISE INTO THE 60S WITH PWATS RISING TO ABOUT 1-1.50". MUCAPE
VALUE DO NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE ON SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES, AND THE SHEAR UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME ON
MON FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE T-STORMS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST ON MON. THE
SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES OF PCPN LOOK EVEN
GREATER FOR TUE-TUE NIGHT, AS A POTENT SHORT- WAVE TROUGH MOVES
OVER UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST NAEFS GUIDANCE
INDICATES LOW TO MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL 2-3 STDEVS BELOW NORMAL.
THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TAPS
INTO MORE PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS CONTINUE IN THE 55-85% RANGE ON TUE. SOME PERIODS OF RAIN
WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY WITH PWATS AROUND 1
STDEV OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. 01Z/24 NBM 24-HR PROBS FOR >1" OF
RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING 12Z/WED ARE GENERALLY 25-45%
ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS LINGER THROUGH WED WITH
THE MID AND UPPER TROUGH REMAINING NEAR OR OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPS BEGIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MON, AND THE
FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUE THROUGH WED IN THE RAIN-COOLED
AIR/CLOUDIER AIR MASS. A MODERATION TO SEASONAL TEMPS TO CLOSE
JULY OCCURS LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THRU 06Z/SAT...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES SETTLED IN OVER UPSTATE
NY AND NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS.
SOME RADIATIVE MIST/FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN
06Z-10Z/FRI WHERE TEMP-DEWPT DEPRESSIONS ARE CLOSE TO ZERO. WE
ARE EXPECTING IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS IN THE MIST/FOG. WE USED A
TEMPO GROUP BETWEEN 07Z-11Z/KPSF AND WENT WITH LIFR MIST/FOG
AND STRATUS AT KGFL FROM 08Z-11Z/FRI. LESS CONFIDENT FOR DENSE
MIST/FOG AT KALB/KPOU. SOME SHALLOW MIST/FOG MAY BRIEFLY FORM AT
KALB...WHEREAS KPOU WE USED A TEMPO GROUP 08-11Z/FRI FOR SOME
MVFR MIST (~4 SM). THE MIST/FOG SHOULD BURN OFF QUICKLY SHORTLY
AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL THE TAF SITES FROM
THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON WITH A FEW CUMULUS AND
A FEW-SCT CIRRUS. THE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE SOUTHEAST TO
THE SOUTHWEST/WEST AT LESS THAN 7 KT FROM THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM BY AROUND
00Z/SAT.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...CHANCE TSRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...CHANCE TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15
AVIATION...15
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