373
FXUS61 KALY 241714
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
114 PM EDT FRI JUL 24 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CONTINUED THE TREND TO LOWER MIN TEMPS BELOW THE NBM GUIDANCE
TONIGHT DUE TO RADIATIVE COOLING FROM THE SURFACE ANTICYLONE
NEARBY. ALSO CONTINUED MENTION OF PATCHY MIST/FOG IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS TONIGHT. OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES
WITH THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
2) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE LATE MON THRU
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 240 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A 1025 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN OVER NY AND
NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS. SOME
PATCHY RADIATIVE MIST/FOG IN THE MAJOR AND SHELTERED VALLEYS
WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER A COOL START IN THE
40S AND 50S (IT FELL TO 38F AT OLD FORGE!), EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO
BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH SHALLOW MIXING DEPTHS.
EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL IN THE 70S TO
LOWER 80S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DUE TO THE SUBSIDENCE
FROM THE SFC HIGH. HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN COMFORTABLE. TONIGHT,
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS WILL PROMOTE IDEAL
RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS WITH FOG IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS
ONCE AGAIN. WE WENT WITH A MAVMOS/NBM BLEND AND TRENDED COOLER
WITH MIN TEMPS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH 40S TO LOWER 50S
NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MAINLY LOWER TO MID 50S TO THE
SOUTH. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A SLIGHT MODERATION
AND WARMING TREND IN TEMPS, AS THE SFC ANTICYLONE SLOWLY MOVES
DOWNSTREAM NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE BY SUNDAY. AN ISOLATED POP-UP
SHOWER OR T-STORM IS POSSIBLE NEAR THE WESTERN DACKS. OTHERWISE,
DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S OVER THE MTNS, AND MAINLY THE
50S IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL
IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS/HILLS AND 70S TO AROUND
80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL FOR
LATE JULY (I.E. NORMAL HIGH FOR ALBANY IS 84F CURRENTLY). THE
FAIR AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO END BY MON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
A MORE ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN SETS-UP MON THROUGH THE MID-
WEEK. INITIALLY, NORTHWEST FLOW SETS-UP ALOFT WITH A WARM
FRONT/DEWPOINTS BOUNDARY AHEAD OF SHORT-WAVE APPROACHING FROM
FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST/WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. DEWPOINTS
RISE INTO THE 60S WITH PWATS RISING TO ABOUT 1-1.50". MUCAPE
VALUE DO NOT LOOK THAT IMPRESSIVE ON SOME OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
GUIDANCE AND ENSEMBLES, AND THE SHEAR UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME ON
MON FOR POTENTIAL SEVERE T-STORMS. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WAS KEPT IN THE FORECAST ON MON. THE
SHOWER/T-STORM COVERAGE AND PROBABILITIES OF PCPN LOOK EVEN
GREATER FOR TUE-TUE NIGHT, AS A POTENT SHORT- WAVE TROUGH MOVES
OVER UPSTATE NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. LATEST NAEFS GUIDANCE
INDICATES LOW TO MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL 2-3 STDEVS BELOW NORMAL.
THE CYCLONIC VORTICITY ADVECTION WITH THE MID-LEVEL TROUGH TAPS
INTO MORE PRONOUNCED LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL
POPS CONTINUE IN THE 55-85% RANGE ON TUE. SOME PERIODS OF RAIN
WITH SHOWERS/T-STORMS MAY BE LOCALLY HEAVY WITH PWATS AROUND 1
STDEV OR SO ABOVE NORMAL. 01Z/24 NBM 24-HR PROBS FOR >1" OF
RAINFALL FOR THE PERIOD ENDING 12Z/WED ARE GENERALLY 25-45%
ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AT THIS TIME. THE
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED T-STORMS LINGER THROUGH WED WITH
THE MID AND UPPER TROUGH REMAINING NEAR OR OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. TEMPS BEGIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL MON, AND THE
FALL SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TUE THROUGH WED IN THE RAIN-COOLED
AIR/CLOUDIER AIR MASS. A MODERATION TO SEASONAL TEMPS TO CLOSE
JULY OCCURS LATE IN THE WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/SATURDAY...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES OVER THE REGION. MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES WITH JUST FEW- SCT CUMULUS AND CIRRUS PASS THROUGH. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS COULD LOWER ONCE AGAIN NEAR SUNRISE TOMORROW AS
CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN FAVORABLE FOR RADIATIONAL FOG/MIST TO DEVELOP,
ESPECIALLY IN THE MORE SHELTERED VALLEY AREAS. THE BEST CHANCE FOR
REDUCED VSBYS TO IFR AND BRIEF PERIODS OF LIFR IS AT KGFL FROM
ABOUT 06Z TO 11Z. KPSF COULD ALSO SEE SOME SHALLOW FOG/MIST LOWERING
VSBYS TO MVFR FROM ABOUT 08Z TO 11Z. ANY FOG THAT DEVELOPS SHOULD
BURN OFF QUICKLY WITH PLENTY OF SUN BY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL
THEN PREVAIL ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD.
SOUTH/SOUTHEAST WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE LIGHT 4-7 KT BECOMING
CALM OVERNIGHT. WINDS GRADUALLY INCREASE NEAR/UP TO 5 KT OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TOMORROW MORNING AND THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...53
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