503
FXUS61 KALY 250534
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
134 AM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
BASED ON THE POSITION OF THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND GOOD
AGREEMENT ON RADIATIONAL COOLING TONIGHT, LOWS WERE LOWERED FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR A COOLER THAN NORMAL EVENING AND
SATURDAY SUMMER MORNING. CONTINUED MENTION OF PATCHY FOG FOR
TOMORROW MORNING AS INGREDIENTS FOR FOG DEVELOPMENT ARE FAVORED.
OTHERWISE, NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS AND LOW HUMIDITY
LEVELS PERSIST THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
2) INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY
NEXT WEEK ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AFTERNOON UPDATE: NO CHANGES TO THE FIRST KEY MESSAGE. SEE
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW FOR MORE DETAILS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION: A 1025 HPA SFC ANTICYCLONE CONTINUES TO
BUILD IN OVER NY AND NEW ENGLAND THIS MORNING WITH CLEAR SKIES
AND CALM WINDS. SOME PATCHY RADIATIVE MIST/FOG IN THE MAJOR AND
SHELTERED VALLEYS WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE. AFTER A
COOL START IN THE 40S AND 50S (IT FELL TO 38F AT OLD FORGE!),
EXPECT MAX TEMPS TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER THAN YESTERDAY WITH
SHALLOW MIXING DEPTHS. EXPECT HIGHS TO BE NEAR OR SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL IN THE 70S TO LOWER 80S WITH MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS DUE
TO THE SUBSIDENCE FROM THE SFC HIGH. HUMIDITY LEVELS REMAIN
COMFORTABLE. TONIGHT, MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
WILL PROMOTE IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING CONDITIONS WITH FOG IN THE
SHELTERED VALLEYS ONCE AGAIN. WE WENT WITH A MAVMOS/NBM BLEND
AND TRENDED COOLER WITH MIN TEMPS OVER THE NORTHERN ZONES WITH
40S TO LOWER 50S NORTH OF THE CAPITAL REGION...AND MAINLY LOWER
TO MID 50S TO THE SOUTH. THE UPCOMING WEEKEND WILL FEATURE A
SLIGHT MODERATION AND WARMING TREND IN TEMPS, AS THE SFC
ANTICYLONE SLOWLY MOVES DOWNSTREAM NEAR THE GULF OF MAINE BY
SUNDAY. AN ISOLATED POP-UP SHOWER OR T-STORM IS POSSIBLE NEAR
THE WESTERN DACKS. OTHERWISE, DEWPOINTS IN THE 40S TO LOWER 50S
OVER THE MTNS, AND MAINLY THE 50S IN THE VALLEYS WILL BE
COMFORTABLE WITH HIGHS NEAR NORMAL IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN
THE VALLEYS/HILLS AND 70S TO AROUND 80F OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN
WHICH IS CLIMATOLOGICALLY NORMAL FOR LATE JULY (I.E. NORMAL HIGH
FOR ALBANY IS 84F CURRENTLY). THE FAIR AND DRY WEATHER LOOKS TO
END BY MON.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
BASED ON LATEST ENSEMBLE FORECAST GUIDANCES, UPPER LEVEL
TROUGHING IS FAVORED TO RETURN ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH IS FAVORED BY THE CURRENT FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHEN THE UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH MOVES EAST AND HOW FAR SOUTHEAST IT MOVES FOR THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. FOR MONDAY, A SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IS FAVORED TO MOVE OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION BRINGING LOW
CHANCES (LESS THAN 30 PERCENT) FOR RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE
MORNING HOURS AND INCREASING TO MEDIUM FOR THE AFTERNOON (40 TO
60 PERCENT CHANCES). THIS BRINGS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT
RAIN SHOWERS DURING THE MORNING WILL LIKELY HINDER INGREDIENTS
NEEDED FOR STRONG STORMS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR MONDAY.
HOWEVER, A DIFFERENT SCENARIO IS FAVORED FOR TUESDAY AS THE
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE NORTHEAST
BRINGING A COLD FRONT TUESDAY EVENING. DEPENDING ON THE TIMING
OF THE FRONT, HOW MUCH MOISTURE WE HAVE, AND ENOUGH INGREDIENTS
NEEDED, THUNDERSTORMS ARE FAVORED TO DEVELOP TUESDAY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WHERE A FEW COULD BECOME ON THE STRONG SIDE. PRIMARY CONCERN
WOULD BE STRONG WINDS WITH ANY DEVELOPED THUNDERSTORM.
CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY AND
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING, BUT
THE SEVERITY OF STORMS IS STILL UNCERTAIN DUE TO TIMING OF THE
FRONT.
LATEST NATIONAL BLEND OF MODEL DATA SUGGESTS FOR 24 HOUR
RAINFALL AMOUNTS EXCEEDING 1 INCH IS BETWEEN 40 AND 50 PERCENT.
WITH THE DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND OVER THE WEEKEND, CONFIDENCE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH FOR
LIMITED IMPACTS FOR FLOODING AS MOST LOCATIONS WILL BE ABLE TO
HANDLE THE RAINFALL, BUT TYPICAL NUISANCE LOCATIONS THAT ARE
PRONE TO FLOODING COULD SEE IMPACTS DUE TO POTENTIAL HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH THUNDERSTORMS. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN CONTROL OVER
EASTERN NY AND NEW ENGLAND THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH SOME IFR/LIFR
RADIATIVE MIST/FOG POSSIBLE FOR KGFL/KPSF THIS MORNING BETWEEN
06Z-11Z/SAT. KPOU MAY GET SOME MVFR MIST, BUT WE KEPT 6SM WITH
LESS CONFIDENCE. KALB SHOULD REMAIN VFR. THE MIST/FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE BY 10-11Z/SAT OR SO. EXPECT A
FEW DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS AND A FEW-SCT CIRRUS TODAY WITH
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL THE TAF SITES FROM THE LATE MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BE CALM EARLY THIS
MORNING, AND THEN WILL BECOME SOUTHEAST/SOUTH AT 4-8 KT. EXPECT
THE WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT TO CALM SHORTLY BEFORE OR JUST AFTER
00Z/SUN.
OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT TO SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY-TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. BREEZY.
DEFINITE SHRA...CHANCE OF TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...CHANCE OF
TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...15/05
AVIATION...15
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