989
FXUS61 KALY 252306
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
706 PM EDT SAT JUL 25 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) DRY CONDITIONS WITH SEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW
HUMIDITY LEVELS PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
2) INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR PERIODS OF RAIN SHOWERS AND A
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MON THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK
ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION
AS OF 245 AM EDT...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED IN EASTERN
QUEBEC WILL CONTINUE OUR STRETCH OF BEAUTIFUL WEATHER TODAY
ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. EXPECT PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE MIXED DIURNALLY DRIVEN CUMULUS, COMFORTABLE HUMIDITY,
AND TEMPERATURES WARMING INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEY
WITH MID TO UPPER 70S IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SKIES CLEAR THIS
EVENING ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO COOL BUT OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
LIKELY WILL NOT BE QUITE AS COOL AS PREVIOUS NIGHTS GIVEN
INCREASING CLOUDS TRACKING WEST TO EAST INTO THE REGION. COOLEST
TEMPERATURES SHOULD OCCUR IN WESTERN NEW ENGLAND WHERE SKIES
WILL STAY CLEAR LONGEST SUPPORTING RADIATIONAL COOLING AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS FALLING COMFORTABLY INTO THE LOW TO MID 50S. HIGH
PRESSURE STARTS TO MOVE FURTHER TO OUR EAST TOMORROW INTO THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WITH BROAD TROUGHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES
BUILDING INTO THE NORTHEAST. WEAK SUBSIDENCE FROM HIGH PRESSURE
TO OUR NORTHEAST LOOKS TO MAINTAIN ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE TO KEEP
MOST AREAS DRY EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND NORTHERN
AND EASTERN CATSKILLS WHERE BROAD TROUGHING AND WEAK HEIGHT
FALLS ALONG WITH ADDITIONAL LIFT FROM THE TERRAIN CAN SUPPORT
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER, GIVEN
VERY LOW SHEAR AND LOW INSTABILITY, SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT
EXPECTED. OUR WESTERN AREAS ARE ONLY OUTLINED IN SPC'S GENERAL
THUNDER.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
CLOUD COVERAGE AND HUMIDITY INCREASES HEADING INTO MONDAY AS
BROAD TROUGHING REMAINS OVERHEAD AND WIND ALOFT BECOMING WEST-
SOUTHWESTERLY. WHILE HEIGHT FALLS ARE MINIMAL, TEMPERATURES
ALOFT COOL SUPPORTING MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AROUND 5.5 - 6C/KM
WHICH WHEN COMBINED WITH BREAKS OF SUN AND DEW POINTS RISING
INTO THE 60S WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO INCREASED SFC BASED
INSTABILITY REACHING 500 - 1000 J/KG. VERY WEAK FLOW ALOFT ONCE
AGAIN WILL KEEP SHEAR NEGLIGIBLE SO AS ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
DIURNALLY DRIVEN SHOWERS/STORMS DEVELOP, THEY WILL LIKELY BE
SLOW MOVING AND QUICKLY DISSIPATE. HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS
INCLUDING THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS ARE
MOST FAVORED FOR ANY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWER/STORM. SPC
MAINTAIN JUST GENERAL THUNDER ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND.
THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT WE WILL ENTER INTO A MORE
UNSETTLED PERIOD TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD LIKELY
AND EVEN CATEGORICAL POPS BOTH DAYS ACROSS EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. THIS IS ATTRIBUTED TO A STRONGER SHORTWAVE
ROUNDING THE TOP OF THE EXPANSIVE RIDGE POSITIONED ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND WESTERN CONUS AND AMPLIFYING AS IT DIGS INTO THE
GREAT LAKES AND NORTHEAST. WHILE THERE IS MEDIUM TO HIGH
CONFIDENCE THAT THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WILL INCLUDE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS, THERE REMAINS UNCERTAINTY ON THE TIMING AND
AMPLITUDE OF THIS SHORTWAVE WHICH WILL BE IMPORTANT AS WE
DIAGNOSIS WHICH HAZARDS WILL BE AT PLAY. THERE ARE TWO MAIN
SCENARIOS WITH THE FIRST SUGGESTING THE SHORTWAVE CLOSES OFF
OVER THE GREAT LAKES OR OHIO VALLEY, SUPPORTING STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF IT THAT ADVECTS A STRONG PLUME OF GULF MOISTURE
INTO THE NORTHEAST TUES INTO WED. THIS WOULD INCREASE THE
CHANCES FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS FROM THUNDERSTORMS AND POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAIN TO REPEATEDLY IMPACT A GIVEN AREA INCREASING THE
CHANCE FOR ISOLATED INSTANCES OF FLOODING. THE SECOND SOLUTION
SUGGESTS A DELAY IN THE SHORTWAVE AMPLIFYING UNTIL IT IS FURTHER
EAST. INCREASED UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE AHEAD OF IT INTERACTS
WITH A STALLED BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN IMPACTING THE
CAROLINAS/MID-ATLANTIC FOR THE PAST FEW DAYS RESULTING IN A
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPING AND TRACKING TO SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. WE
WOULD LIKELY BE POSITIONED WITHIN THE COOL CONVEYOR BELT NORTH
OF THE BOUNDARY AND SFC LOW LEADING TO MORE WIDESPREAD STRATIFORM
RAIN. THE LATEST NBM STILL SHOWS 30 TO 60% CHANCE FOR AT LEAST
1" OF RAIN ACROSS EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN 8PM
TUES AND 8PM WED WITH A 15 TO 35% FOR OVER 2 INCHES. AS WAS
MENTIONED IN THE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION, DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS
HEADING INTO THIS EVENT KEEP FLOODING CONCERNS LOW AS HIGH
FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE VALUES INDICATE SOILS SHOULD BE ABLE TO
HANDLE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN FALLING OVER MULTIPLE HOURS. IF THE
FIRST SCENARIO ENDS UP OCCURRING, FLOODING CONCERNS WILL LIKELY
INCREASE AS THIS FAVORS CONVECTION POTENTIALLY REPEATEDLY
IMPACTING A GIVEN AREA. LATEST WPC EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK
SHOWS WIDESPREAD MARGINAL RISK BOTH TUES AND WED SUGGESTING
ISOLATED INSTANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING POTENTIAL. THIS PRODUCT
WILL UPDATE AGAIN TONIGHT.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL THROUGH THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD. DESPITE INCREASING HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS, THEY WILL LIKELY BE TRANSPARENT ENOUGH TO ALLOW
FOR OCCASIONAL RADIATIONAL FOG DEVELOPING AGAIN AT KGFL/KPSF.
PERIODS OF IFR VSBY EXPECTED FROM AROUND 06Z-10Z. ANY FOG SHOULD
DISSIPATE BY 10Z-11Z, WITH VFR CONDITIONS THEN RETURNING FOR
THE REST OF THE DAY. THERE WILL BE INCREASING MID LEVEL CLOUDS
SUNDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT, THEN SOUTHERLY
AROUND 5 KT SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA..
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31
AVIATION...07
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