859
FXUS61 KALY 261737
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
137 PM EDT SUN JUL 26 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
LOWERED TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S GIVEN
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT A COASTAL LOW WILL DEVELOP OFF THE
NJ/LONG ISLAND COAST WITH EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
WITHIN THE COOL CONVEYOR BELT AND STRATIFORM RAIN TO THE
NORTHWEST. OTHERWISE, CHANGED SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WORDING TO
REFLECTED COVERAGE (ISOLATED TO SCATTERED) INSTEAD OF
PROBABILISTIC (SLIGHT CHANCE/CHANCE) FOR TODAY AND TOMORROW AS
VERY LIMITED SHEAR AND WEAK FLOW ALOFT WILL FAVOR PULSE
TYPE/SHORT-LIVED CONVECTION.
KEY MESSAGES
1) ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AND SHORT-LIVED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
TODAY INTO TOMORROW, FAVORED IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AREAS OF THE
SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS, NORTHERN/EASTERN CATSKILLS AND SOUTHERN
GREENS.
2) MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD PERIODS OF RAIN
AND A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY ACROSS
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND DUE TO A SLOW MOVING COASTAL
LOW.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF NOVA SCOTIA THIS
MORNING WITH TEMPS COOLING INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S WITH SOME
PATCHY FOG NORTH/NORTHEAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION, WHERE THE
SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR WITH CALM WINDS. A MID AND UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION TODAY WITH SOME DIURNALLY
DRIVEN POP-UP SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHWEST
ADIRONDACKS, EASTERN CATSKILLS AND THE WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY.
THE MEAN MUCAPES ON THE HREFS ARE 250-750 J/KG WITH VERY LITTLE
DEEP SHEAR OF LESS THAN 15 KT. PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS MAY
OCCUR WITH BRIEF DOWNPOURS. SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED DUE
TO LIMITED INSTABILITY AND SHEAR. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 50S
AND ENOUGH SUBSIDENCE FROM WEAK RIDGING DOWNSTREAM OVER THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES WILL KEEP MOST OF THE REGION DRY WITH
HUMIDITY LEVELS FAIRLY COMFORTABLE. MAX TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLE
WITH 80-85F READINGS IN THE VALLEYS AND MAINLY 70S OVER THE
HILLS AND MTNS. THE ISOLATED-WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS SHOULD
DIMINISH QUICKLY WITH THE LOSS OF THE DIURNAL HEATING. THE SKIES
WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY/MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS
WITH SOME PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING NORTH AND WEST OF ALBANY
ESPECIALLY WHERE ANY RAIN OCCURS. LOWS WILL BE MILDER IN THE 50S
TO LOWER 60S.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
THE WEATHER PATTERN BECOMES VERY ACTIVE MON THRU THE MID WEEK
WITH A POTENTIAL LATE JULY MODERATE-HEAVY RAIN EVENT/RAINSTORM
TUE-THU. INITIALLY, A LEAD SHORT-WAVE AND A WARM FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE WEST-
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES REGION WILL BRING SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE FORECAST AREA MON-MON NIGHT. THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH BECOMES MORE ESTABLISHED OVER NY AND NEW
ENGLAND. CLOUDS INCREASE AND DEWPOINTS RISE INTO THE 60S.
SBCAPES INCREASE INTO THE 250-1000 J/KG RANGE WITH VERY WEAK
SHEAR AGAIN LESS THAN 20 KT. MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES LOOK WEAK.
THE SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL LIKELY INCREASE INITIALLY
OVER AND NEAR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND THEN SPREAD EASTWARD OVER
THE VALLEYS SLOWLY. THE LACK OF SHEAR WILL LIMIT THUNDERSTORMS
ORGANIZATION AND LIMIT ANY SEVERE THREAT. WE TRIED TO KEEP POPS
IN CHANCE RANGE 25-54% WITH SOME LIKELY VALUES OVER THE
SOUTHWEST DACKS AND EASTERN CATSKILLS. GENERAL THUNDER FROM SPC
FOR DAY 2 LOOKS RIGHT BASED ON THE LIMITED INSTABILITY AND WEAK
SHEAR. MAX TEMPS LOOK SIMILAR TO SUN WITH SEASONABLE READINGS IN
THE MID 70S TO MID 80S OVER THE REGION. THE SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT WITH
MILDER TEMPS IN THE MID 50S TO MID 60S.
AN IMPACTFUL WEATHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO MOVE INTO EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TUE INTO THU. A STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
DIGS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO VALLEY. LOW AND
MID LEVEL HEIGHTS FALL 2-3 STDEVS BELOW NORMAL. A PRIMARY LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES OVER WESTERN NY AND PA TUE PM WITH RAIN
BEGINNING TO OVER SPREADING THE REGION WITH SHOWERS AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS. THE EC CONTINUES TO BE FURTHER NORTH HOLDING THE
PRIMARY TUE NIGHT INTO WED WITH SECONDARY LOW FORMING OVER
SOUTHEAST PA AND NJ. THE GFS/CMC AND SEVERAL ENSEMBLES MEMBERS
ARE FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THE SECONDARY FORMING OVER
NORTHERN VA OR THE DELMARVA REGION WHICH WOULD BRING MODERATE-
HEAVY RAIN INTO THE REGION LATE TUE NIGHT THRU WED AS THE WAVE
MOVES NORTHEAST, AND WOULD PERHAPS LIMIT THE HEAVY RAIN TO
LOCATIONS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL REGION. PWATS DO
INCREASE TO 1.50" OR SO, AND THE NAEFS PWAT ANOMALIES ARE +1-2
STDEVS ABOVE NORMAL. THE 500 HPA LOW CLOSES OFF OVER OR NEAR
EASTERN NY AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, WHICH SLOWS THE SFC CYCLONE
DOWN WHICH WILL BE TAPPING ATLANTIC AND GULF MOISTURE. THE
LATEST 01Z/26 NBM 48-HR PROBABILITIES > 1" OF RAIN ENDING
12Z/THU ARE 65-85% ACROSS THE REGION; >2" PROBABILITIES FOR THE
SAME TIME FRAME ARE 35-70% GREATEST SOUTH AND EAST OF THE
SOUTHERN DACKS AND THE >3" PROBABILITIES ARE 30-50% FROM ROUGHLY
THE CAPITAL DISTRICT SOUTH AND EAST. A WIDESPREAD 1.5-4"
RAINFALL (SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OVER THE EASTERN
CATSKILLS) OVER A 36-48 HR TIME FRAME ARE POSSIBLE, BUT THE QPF
CONTINUES TO VARY QUITE A BIT WITH THE GUIDANCE.
LOCATIONS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST OF THE CAPITAL
DISTRICT COULD RECEIVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS AND IF CONFIDENCE
INCREASES LATER IN TIME SOME LOCATIONS COULD NEED A FLOOD WATCH
DUE TO TRAINING CONVECTION OR SLOW MOVING RAINBANDS CAUSING POOR
DRAINAGE AND URBAN FLOODING OR ISOLATED TO SPOTTY SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING. WPC HAS ISSUED A 'SLIGHT RISK' FOR SCATTERED
INSTANCES OF FLASH FLOODING FROM ALBANY SOUTH AND EAST OVER THE
EASTERN CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY, SOUTHERN TACONICS,
SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES AND NW CT AND A 'MARGINAL RISK' FOR ISOLATED
INSTANCES FOR POTENTIAL FLASH FLOODING IN THE NEWLY UPDATED DAY
3 EXCESSIVE RAINFALL OUTLOOK /ERO/ FOR TUE-TUE NIGHT. THE DAY 4
ERO HAS THE ENTIRE AREA IN A 'SLIGHT RISK' FOR WED-WED NIGHT,
EXCEPT FOR THE SOUTHERN DACKS, WESTERN MOHAWK VALLEY AND THE
LAKE GEORGE REGION. DRY ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS HEADING INTO THIS
EVENT, HIGH GRIDDED FFG VALUES AND LIMITED RAINFALL FROM THE
CAPITAL REGION NORTH AND EAST OVER THE PAST 2 WEEKS SHOULD LIMIT
HYDRO CONCERNS. WE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR ANY TRAINING
CONVECTION, WHICH WILL ENHANCE HYDRO CONCERNS, FOR SOME
LOCATIONS THIS COULD BE A GOOD SOAKING RAINFALL OVER A COUPLE OF
DAYS. THE RAINFALL MAY CONTINUE IN THE DEFORMATION ZONES OF THE
SLOW MOVING WAVE AND CUT-OFF LOW WED INTO THU MORNING. TEMPS
TENDS COOLER THAN NORMAL TUE INTO WED WITH 70S AND SOME 60S OVER
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. SHOWERS SHOULD BEGIN TO DIMINISH THU WITH A
DRIER AIR MASS SETTLING IN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH SEASONABLE
TEMPS.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/MON...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH
OF THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD WITH SOME CUMULUS CLOUDS AND PASSING
CIRRUS CLOUDS AT TIMES. ANY SHOWERS THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL LIKELY
REMAIN WEST OF THE TAF SITES. IF THERE ARE ENOUGH BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS, PATCHY FOG MAY FORM AT KGFL/KPSF BETWEEN 08-11Z/MON WHERE
BRIEF VSBY REDUCTIONS TO AT LEAST IFR ARE POSSIBLE. WINDS WILL BE
MAINLY LIGHT AT 5 KT OR LESS THROUGH THE PERIOD MAINLY FROM THE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWESTERLY DIRECTIONS.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...31/15
AVIATION...33
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