175
FXUS61 KALY 291725
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
125 PM EDT WED JUL 29 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING EXPANDED INTO THE CAPITAL
REGION, LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA/UPPER HUDSON VALLEY REGION AND
RENSSELAER COUNTY. HEAVY RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN CATSKILLS NORTH INTO THESE AREAS
THROUGH DAYBREAK, WITH A SECONDARY AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY
RAIN REDEVELOPING FOR AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON. QPF AMOUNTS HAVE THEREFORE
INCREASED IN THESE AREAS WITH SOME AMOUNTS OF 3-4" POSSIBLE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN THROUGH TODAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE FLOOD WATCH AREA. POOR
DRAINAGE/URBAN AREAS WILL BE MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO POTENTIAL FLASH
FLOODING THROUGH TODAY.
2) DESPITE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL, CURRENT RIVER FORECASTS SUGGEST
THREAT FOR RIVER FLOODING IS LOW AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, IF ANY
OF THE HIGHER-END RAINFALL TOTALS ARE REALIZED THEN ISOLATED
MINOR RIVER FLOODING WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
MULTIPLE EMBEDDED MID LEVEL VORTICES HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE
EASTERN PERIPHERY OF DEVELOPING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH. INITIAL WAVE
WAS LOCATED OVER THE SE CATSKILLS WILL CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWARD THROUGH DAYBREAK, WITH MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ON ITS
EASTERN SIDE PERSISTING ACROSS THE NE CATSKILLS INTO THE UPPER
HUDSON VALLEY REGION. RAINFALL RATES UP TO 1-2"/HOUR WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE NE
CATSKILLS, AND POSSIBLY NW SARATOGA/WESTERN WARREN COS.
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE
TRANSLATING N/NE INTO THE TACONICS, NW CT/WESTERN MA AND
SOUTHERN VT TOWARD DAYBREAK, WITH SOME RAINFALL RATES
POTENTIALLY REACHING UP TO 2"/HOUR.
AS THIS INITIAL WAVE RIDES NORTH, ANOTHER FEATURE LOCATED OFF
THE NJ COAST SHOULD LIFT TOWARD LI AND THEN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND
LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON. THIS SHOULD ALLOW AN AREA OF
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND TO PIVOT
WESTWARD, REACHING AREAS NEAR AND NORTH OF I-90 INCLUDING THE
CAPITAL REGION, THE LAKE GEORGE/SARATOGA AND UPPER HUDSON VALLEY
REGIONS LATER THIS MORNING THROUGH MID AFTERNOON. RAINFALL RATES
COULD STILL REACH 1-2"/HOUR WITHIN THIS AREA, WHICH ADDED TO THE
PRIOR RAINFALL, COULD INCREASE CHANCES FOR FLASH FLOODING,
ESPECIALLY IN POOR DRAINAGE AND URBAN AREAS. THEREFORE, THE
FLOOD WATCH FOR FLASH FLOODING HAS BEEN EXPANDED NORTHWARD INTO
THESE AREAS.
HEAVY RAIN SHOULD DECREASE IN INTENSITY TOWARD AND AFTER SUNSET,
WITH A GENERAL DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE OF SHOWERS TONIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LATEST HEFS (ENSEMBLE RIVER FORECASTS) CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW
(GENERALLY <10-15%) CHANCE FOR MAIN STEM RIVER FLOODING WITH
THIS EVENT, LIKELY DUE TO ANTECEDENT DRY CONDITIONS AND RAINFALL
DEFICITS. HOWEVER, RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE SIDING ON THE HIGHER END
OF FORECASTS, AND LATEST NERFC FORECASTS DO SUGGEST THE HOOSIC
RIVER @ WILLIAMSTOWN COULD APPROACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH ESOPUS CREEK @ COLD BROOK ALSO APPROACHING MINOR
FS EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL HAVE TO WATCH OTHER POINTS ACROSS
THE EASTERN CATSKILLS AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND THROUGH TODAY
GIVEN THAT HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS ARE MOST LIKELY GOING TO BE
REALIZED.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/THU...A STEADY RAIN CONTINUES TO FALL AT
KALB/KGFL/KPSF THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT
WITH WIDESPREAD IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS. LATER TONIGHT, RAIN WILL
BEGIN TO TRANSITION TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AT THESE SITES BUT LOW
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. AT KPOU, THE STEADIEST RAIN
IS NORTH OF THE TAF SITE BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
BE POSSIBLE THERE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SOME
REDUCTIONS TO MVFR AT TIMES. LIGHT ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THURSDAY MORNING WITH CIGS REMAINING MIXED
IFR/MVFR. WINDS WILL BE MAINLY NORTH TO NORTHWESTERLY 5-10 KT
THROUGH THE UPCOMING PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
FRIDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR CTZ001-013.
NY...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NYZ041>043-048>054-
058>061-063>066-083-084.
MA...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MAZ001-025.
VT...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VTZ013>015.
DISCUSSION...24/35
AVIATION...33
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