371
FXUS61 KALY 301730
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
130 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE CURRENT FORECAST.
KEY MESSAGES
1) MINOR RIVER, STREAM, AND CREEK FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGH
THIS EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF EASTERN NEW YORK AS THEY ARE
STILL RESPONDING TO YESTERDAY'S SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
2) MEDIUM CHANCES FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST CONTINUES TO SLOWLY
HEAD EASTWARD TODAY. AS THE WEATHER SYSTEM HEADS SLOWLY EASTWARD,
THERE ARE MEDIUM CHANCES (40-50 PERCENT) FOR LIGHT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN NEW
YORK AND MEDIUM TO HIGH CHANCES (GREATER THAN 50 PERCENT) ACROSS
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. NOW, THE NATURE OF RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE
MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO WHAT HAVE OBSERVED OVER THE LAST TWO
DAYS. RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECASTED TO RANGE BETWEEN 0.05
INCHES AND 0.25 INCHES FOR TODAY.
BASED ON THE LATEST NATIONAL BLEND OF MODEL DATA AND HIGH
RESOLUTION MODEL GUIDANCES, THERE ARE LOW CHANCES FOR AN
ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON PRIMARILY
BETWEEN 2 PM AND 7 PM ACROSS WESTERN NEW ENGLAND AND PORTIONS OF
EASTERN NEW YORK. FOR LOCATIONS THAT COULD OBSERVE A
THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON, LOCALLY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS
COULD REACH UP TO 0.5 INCHES. WE ARE STARTING TO LOSE ENOUGH
MOISTURE AND ENERGY FOR ANY HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AS THE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO HEAD EASTWARD TODAY AND STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES
REGION.
WHILE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL HAS ENDED, RIVERS, STREAMS, AND
CREEKS ARE STILL RESPONDING TO OUR MOST RECENT HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK TODAY AND INTO TONIGHT. ALONG THE HOOSIC
RIVER AT EAGLE BRIDGE, MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING WITH TIMING
OF CRESTING BY 8 AM THIS MORNING (OR SOONER). RIVERS, STREAMS,
AND CREEKS IN EASTERN NEW YORK (OUTSIDE OF THE SOUTHERN
ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA REGION) WILL STILL BE
RUNNING HIGH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THE ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
TODAY WILL BE ON THE LIGHTER SIDE TO CONTRIBUTE VERY LITTLE TO
ANY ON-GOING MINOR FLOODING. DRIER CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR
LATE TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING FOR RIVERS, STREAMS, AND
CREEKS TO BEGIN RETURNING TO NEAR NORMAL LEVELS. CONTINUE TO
FOLLOW ALL LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT ROAD CLOSURES AND NEVER DRIVE
THROUGH FLOODED ROADWAYS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
LATEST ENSEMBLE FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH MOVING THROUGH EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY. THIS BRINGS INCREASING CONFIDENCE FOR
WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
THERE ARE SOME FLUCTUATIONS WITH THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ON WHERE THE
AXIS OF HEAVY RAINFALL COULD OCCUR. THE BEST CASE SCENARIO AND
CURRENTLY SUPPORTED BY THE LATEST FORECAST IS FOR THE HIGHEST
RAINFALL TOTALS TO BE TO OUR NORTH AND WEST WITH THAT POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY RAINFALL. FOR ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND,
LATEST PROBABILITIES FROM THE NATIONAL BLEND OF MODEL DATA FOR 24
HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS FROM 2 PM SUNDAY TO 2 PM MONDAY EXCEEDING
1 INCH ARE BETWEEN 30 AND 40 PERCENT. FOR PRECIPITATION TOTALS
REACHING OR EXCEEDING 0.5 INCHES IS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 PERCENT.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR WIDESPREAD TOTALS TO BE BETWEEN 0.25 INCHES
AND 0.5 INCHES. THE LATEST FORECAST SUPPORTS MEDIUM CHANCES FOR
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE EVENING AND EARLY OVERNIGHT
HOURS ACROSS EASTERN NEW YORK AND WESTERN NEW ENGLAND. WHILE THE
SEVERITY AND EXACT TIMING OF STORMS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS
FORECAST TIME, ONE OR TWO STRONGER STORMS COULD DEVELOP WITH
PRIMARY CONCERN BEING STRONG WINDS AS THE LATEST FORECAST
SUPPORTS ENOUGH INGREDIENTS NEEDED FOR THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.
WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE FORECAST TRENDS AND KEEP UP TO
DATE WITH THE LATEST FORECAST AS WE GET CLOSER TO SUNDAY.
AT THIS FORECAST TIME, CONFIDENCE FOR HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS IS FOR
THE BEST CASE SCENARIO FOR HIGHER TOTALS (OF UP TO 1 INCH) IN THE
SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND LAKE GEORGE-SARATOGA REGIONS. WITH THIS
INFORMATION, FLASH FLOODING CONCERNS ARE LOW AS MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS ARE IN STORE FOR FRIDAY INTO SUNDAY MORNING AND SOIL
CONDITIONS WILL HAVE TIME TO DRY BEFORE OUR NEXT BATCH OF RAINFALL
MOVES IN.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/FRI...SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY DRIFT EASTWARD TOWARD THE NEW ENGLAND COAST
DURING THE UPCOMING TAF PERIOD. THESE FEATURES WILL REMAIN CLOSE
ENOUGH TO BRING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON
WHICH CAN BRIEFLY REDUCE VSBYS TO MVFR AT TIMES. OTHERWISE,
MIXED MVFR/VFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON WITH ANY IFR
CIGS AT KPOU LIFTING SHORTLY AFTER 18Z/THU. CLOUDS WILL DECREASE
TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS ENDING WHICH WILL INCREASE THE POTENTIAL
FOR WIDESPREAD FOG, SOME DENSE, AT ALL SITES. ANY FOG LIFTS
AFTER 12Z/FRI WITH THE RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS. NORTHERLY WINDS
AROUND 10 KT WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM TONIGHT, THEN
NORTHWESTERLY AT 4-8 KT ON FRIDAY.
OUTLOOK...
FRIDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SATURDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
CLIMATE
DAILY MAXIMUM RAINFALL SET FOR JULY 29TH 2026
KALB 5.45 INCHES. OLD RECORD - 1.9 INCHES IN 1974.
KPOU 2.68 INCHES. OLD RECORD - 1.86 INCHES IN 1971.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...33
CLIMATE...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page