133
FXUS61 KALY 302351
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
751 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE LAST AREAL FLOOD WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE LATE THIS
MORNING FOR PORTIONS OF THE CAPITAL REGION AND NORTHERN PORTION
OF THE MID-HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) RISK OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL
FOR EASTERN NEW YORK SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) LAST AREAL FLOOD WARNING FOR SE ALBANY, SW RENSSELAER, NE GREENE AND
W/CENTRAL COLUMBIA COUNTIES WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 630 PM.
2) SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS RETURN SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
MONDAY. THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND
ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING IN SOME AREAS.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
THE FINAL AREAL FLOOD WARNING WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 630 PM
FOR SE ALBANY, SW RENSSELAER, NE GREENE AND NW/CENTRAL COLUMBIA
COUNTIES. A FEW ROADS REMAIN CLOSED, BUT THE VAST MAJORITY ARE
OPEN AND THE NORMANS KILL CREEK HAS FALLEN BELOW THE
ALERT/CAUTION STAGE AND CONTINUES TO FALL WITH THE DRIER
CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. WATER LEVELS WILL CONTINUE TO
GRADUALLY RECEDE TONIGHT. NO ADDITIONAL RIVER FLOODING IS
ANTICIPATED. ISOLATED-SCATTTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EARLY EVENING WILL BE GENERALLY
LIGHT AND WILL NOT LEAD TO ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING. THERE MAY BE
A FEW BRIEF/ISOLATED DOWNPOURS, BUT NOT WIDESPREAD ENOUGH TO
CAUSE ANY HYDRO CONCERNS. THE SHOWERS SHOULD GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TONIGHT AS THE STORM SYSTEM FINALLY PULLS FARTHER AWAY. PATCHY
TO AREAS OF LOCALLY DENSE VALLEY FOG ARE EXPECTED TO FORM WITH
LIGHT TO CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR TO PARTLY CLOUDY
CONDITIONS.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED/BRIEF SHOWER OR T-STORM NORTH/EAST OF
ALBANY ON FRIDAY, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH
SUNDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/T-STORMS ARRIVES SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
MOVE EAST ACROSS OUR AREA, ASSOCIATED WITH A CYCLONE TRACKING NE
ACROSS THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY. MOST OF THE GLOBAL/AI GUIDANCE
HAVE MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM, AS THE UPPER
TROUGH SPLITS WITH THE SOUTHERN PIECE TRACKING WELL SOUTH OF OUR
AREA. THIS IS THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO AT THIS TIME. WHILE THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE PROGRESSIVE, PWAT ANOMALIES INCREASE
TO +1 TO +2 STDEV ALONG WITH AT LEAST SOME MODEST INSTABILITY.
SO CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WILL LIKELY BE EMBEDDED IN ANY AREAS OF
SHOWERS SUN P.M. INTO MON. AREAS WHERE THERE ARE ANY PERSISTENT
OR REPEATED DOWNPOURS COULD SEE RENEWED FLOODING, ESPECIALLY IN
LOCATIONS THAT RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL FROM THIS PAST STORM.
NBM PROBABILITIES FOR > 1.00" OF RAIN ARE AROUND 30-60%
NORTH/WEST OF ALBANY, HOWEVER EMBEDDED CONVECTION COULD RESULT
IN 1-2+" IN SOME SPOTS. ALSO, SOILS WILL STILL BE MOSTLY
SATURATED FROM THE EXTREME RAINFALL THIS WEEK SO IT WON'T TAKE
MUCH TO RESULT IN FLASH FLOODING IN SOME AREAS. TIMING HAS
SHIFTED SLOWER TO SUNDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD LIMIT CONVECTION, SO
WPC HAS SCALED BACK TO A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) FOR
EASTERN NEW YORK WITH THE AFTERNOON UPDATE. WILL CONTINUE TO
MONITOR TRENDS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
THROUGH 00Z/SAT...THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES TO
SLOWLY DRIFT EAST OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND TONIGHT. ISOLATED
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO DIMINISH EARLY TONIGHT. THE
SKIES WILL BECOME PARTLY CLOUDY TO MOSTLY CLEAR AND WITH
RESIDUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS PATCHY TO AREAS
OF FOG WILL LIKELY FORM. MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AT THE TAF SITES BETWEEN 04Z-08Z/FRI WITH WIDESPREAD
MIST/FOG WITH IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS 08Z-12Z/FRI. THE MIST OR FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER 12Z/FRI WITH VFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING, THOUGH SOME LINGERING MVFR STRATUS MAY OCCUR AT
KPSF/KPOU. EXPECT WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS BY THE LATE MORNING
INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN CUMULUS SCT-BKN MID/HIGH CLOUDS.
A FEW SHOWERS MAY IMPACT KPSF OR BE IN THE VICINITY AT KGFL BY
THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE WINDS WILL BECOME LIGHT TO CALM
TONIGHT, AND BE NORTHWEST 4-8 KT TOMORROW, EXCEPT KGFL MAYBE BE
SOUTHEAST TO SOUTHWEST AT 7 KT OR LESS.
OUTLOOK...
FRI NIGHT TO SAT NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07/15
AVIATION...15
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