833
FXUS61 KALY 011804
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
204 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
MODELS HAVE COME INTO DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE HEAVIEST
RAINFALL TOTALS ON SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WILL BE FOCUSED
ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS (WESTERN ADIRONDACKS) AND
SOUTHERN/SOUTHEASTERN AREAS (CATSKILLS, MID HUDSON VALLEY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND), WITH MAXIMUM AMOUNTS AROUND TWO INCHES
POSSIBLE. AREAS THAT SAW HEAVY RAINFALL EARLIER IN THE WEEK
AREA MOST AT RISK FOR ADDITIONAL FLOODING CONCERNS.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. WITH BURSTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED, THERE WILL BE
THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING, WITH
AREAS THAT SAW HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS EARLIER IN THE WEEK MOST
SUSCEPTIBLE TO RENEWED FLOODING.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE VERY
SLOWLY MOVING EASTWARD FROM THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO THE
NORTHEAST FOR SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS BOUNDARY, IT
WILL BE VERY MOIST ACROSS THE REGION, WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS
WELL INTO THE 60S, WITH SOME LOW 70S IN VALLEY AREAS. PWAT
VALUES WILL BE EXCEEDING TWO INCHES IN MANY AREAS BY EARLY
MONDAY AND THESE VALUES ARE 2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL. GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL START
IMPACTING NORTHWESTERN AREAS BY LATER SUNDAY, WITH THE HIGHEST
COVERAGE ACROSS THE AREA FOR SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOWS A LOW OF INGREDIENTS THAT WOULD FAVOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING. IN
ADDITION TO THE HIGH PWATS, THERE WILL BE A MOIST PROFILE
THROUGHOUT THE ENTIRE TROPOSPHERE, HIGH FREEZING LEVELS AND A
NARROW SKINNY CAPE PROFILE. THIS WOULD RESULT IN HIGHLY
EFFICIENT RAINFALL PROCESSES, ALLOWING FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS.
THERE HAS BEEN SOME QUESTION ABOUT WHERE THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL
WILL SET UP AND SOME OF THE GUIDANCE HAS HELPED PUT THIS INTO
BETTER FOCUS. BASED ON THE LATEST INFO, NORTHWESTERN AREAS
(WESTERN ADIRONDACKS) MAY SEE SOME OF THE HEAVIEST DOWNPOURS
INITIALLY FOR LATE SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT. FOR MONDAY, IT
APPEARS FAR SOUTHERN AND SOUTHEASTERN AREAS MAY BE MOST AT RISK,
WITH THE HEAVIEST TOTALS PERHAPS JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA INTO THE
NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES. WHILE THE NBM SUGGESTS THAT THERE
IS A DECENT CHANCE FOR A WIDESPREAD 1" OF RAINFALL (OVER 50
PERCENT FOR MANY AREAS), IT IS NOT SHOWING TOO HIGH POTENTIAL
FOR OVER 2" (WITH UNDER 20% FOR MOST OF THE REGION). STILL, HI-
RES GUIDANCE, INCLUDING THE 12Z SPC HREF, DOES SUGGEST THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOCALLY 2-3" IN SOME AREAS THAT SEE REPEATED
BURSTS OF HEAVY RAINFALL FOR WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS. THE
AREAS MOST AT RISK WILL BE LOCATIONS THAT SAW HEAVY RAINFALL
EARLIER IN THE WEEK, AS SOILS REMAIN SATURATED AND FFG IS RATHER
LOW FOR THESE AREAS. WHILE FAR SOUTHERN AREAS (SUCH AS NEAR
POUGHKEEPSIE) ARE STILL IN A RAINFALL DEFICIT, LOCATIONS NOT
FAR AWAY ACROSS NORTHERN PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLY ARE
FAIRLY WET, SO WILL NEED TO CLOSELY MONITOR RADAR TRENDS SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ONCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. THERE IS
CURRENTLY A MARGINAL RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING FOR SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY FOR MOST OF THE AREA. FAR SOUTHERN AREAS (DUTCHESS
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES) ALSO REACH INTO THE SLIGHT RISK, WHICH
SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WINDING DOWN BY MONDAY
EVENING, AS THE BEST FORCING AND MOISTURE SHIFTS EASTWARD, WHICH
WILL END THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY ADDITIONAL FLOODING BY THAT TIME.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
THROUGH 18Z/SUNDAY...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE TAF
PERIOD. SCATTERED TO BROKEN FAIR WEATHER CUMULUS AND CIRRUS PASS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON WITH INCREASING COVERAGE INTO THE EVENING.
MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THERE IS THE POTENTIAL AGAIN FOR PATCHY
FOG/MIST TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOME OF THE TERMINALS NEAR SUNRISE
TOMORROW WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE AND LIGHT WINDS IN PLACE. FLIGHT
CONDITIONS COULD LOWER TO MVFR/IFR WITH PERIODS OF LIFR POSSIBLE
WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT KGFL AND KPSF, HOWEVER THE CHANCE IS ALSO
MENTIONED AT KALB AND KPOU. CLOUD COVER COULD LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL
SO CONFIDENCE WILL INCREASE WITH THE NEXT TAF CYCLE. LOW STRATUS IS
EXPECTED AFTER SUNRISE TOMORROW MORNING THROUGH ABOUT MID MORNING
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING FRONTAL SYSTEM BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE OUT OF THE SOUTH/SOUTHEAST AT KGFL AND KALB
AND OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST AT KPOU AND KPSF WITH SPEEDS 5-10 KT AND AN
OCCASIONAL GUST UP TO 15 KT. WINDS THIS EVENING BECOME LIGHT AND/OR
CALM GENERALLY 5 KT OR LESS EXCEPT FOR AT KALB WHERE WINDS HOLD NEAR
5-8 KT BEFORE INCREASING BY MORNING ACROSS ALL TERMINALS OUT OF THE
SOUTHEAST TO 10-15 KT AND GUSTS 20-25 KT.
OUTLOOK...
SUNDAY NIGHT: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
MONDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
TUESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
WEDNESDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...53
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page