271
FXUS61 KALY 021813
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
213 PM EDT SUN AUG 2 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
SLIGHT RISK (LEVEL 2 OF 4)FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS IN PLACE
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHERN HERKIMER AND NORTHERN HAMILTON COUNTIES
THROUGH TONIGHT, WITH A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 4) ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE AREA.
SLIGHT RISK FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL HAS BEEN NUDGED SLIGHTLY
NORTHWARD TO INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN BERKSHIRES FOR MONDAY. THE
SLIGHT RISK NOW INCLUDES PARTS OF ULSTER, DUTCHESS, BERKSHIRE
AND LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. A NARROW AREA OF MARGINAL RISK REMAINS
FOR AREAS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST FOR MONDAY.
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUES
ACROSS MUCH OF THE REGION (OUTSIDE OF THE ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY) FOR MONDAY. DAMAGING WINDS CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN
THREAT WITH ANY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL RESULT IN PERIODS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HEAVY RAINFALL RATES CAN RESULT IN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH
FLOODING, WITH AREAS THAT SAW HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS RECENTLY
MOST SUSCEPTIBLE TO RENEWED FLOODING.
2) THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS TOMORROW AFTERNOON FOR MUCH OF EASTERN NY AND
WESTERN NEW ENGLAND, EXCEPT THE SOUTHWEST ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK
VALLEY, WITH DAMAGING WINDS THE PRIMARY HAZARD.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS DRAPED ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND
IS NEARLY STATIONARY AT THIS TIME. HOWEVER, THIS BOUNDARY WILL
START SHIFTING EASTWARD FOR TONIGHT INTO MONDAY, AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVER THE GREAT LAKES MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE
NORTHEAST.
AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY, OUR AREA IS WITHIN A RATHER MOIST AND
HUMID ENVIRONMENT. SURFACE DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN SURGING UP WITH
VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. THE PWAT VALUE ON THIS MORNING'S
12Z KALY SOUNDING WAS 1.61" BUT PWAT VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE, WITH MANY SOURCES OF GUIDANCE SHOWING VALUES TO EXCEED
2.00" INCHES IN VALLEY AREAS BY LATE TONIGHT, WHICH IS ABOUT
2-3 STD ABOVE NORMAL. MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THAT ANY
PRECIPITATION WILL BE HIGHLY EFFICIENT THANKS TO THE COMBINATION
OF HIGH PWATS, A NARROW SKINNY CAPE PROFILE AND HIGH FREEZING
LEVELS.
SOME SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY BEEN SPREADING INTO WESTERN AND
NORTHERN AREAS THIS AFTERNOON, BUT ANY PRECIP SO FAR TODAY AS
BEEN LIGHT. THE BEST FORCING IS STILL OFF TO THE WEST, BUT THIS
WILL BE GETTING CLOSER FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY. AS THIS
OCCURS, ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND EXPECTED FOR THE OVERNIGHT AND
INTO MONDAY MORNING. CAMS SUGGEST THE MAIN WINDOW FOR HEAVY
SHOWERS LOOKS TO BE ABOUT MIDNIGHT THROUGH DAYBREAK, ALTHOUGH
ANOTHER LINE COULD DEVELOP JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FOR THE
LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS ON MONDAY AS WELL FOR
SOUTHEASTERN AREAS. ALTHOUGH OVERALL THE PRECIP SHOULD BE
PROGRESSIVE, THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME TRAINING OF PRECIP
AND AREAS TO SEE REPEATED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
THUNDERSTORMS. CAMS SUGGESTS THE HIGHEST TOTALS MAY BE ACROSS
FAR NORTHWESTERN AREAS FOR LATER TODAY (WESTERN ADIRONDACKS), AS
WELL AS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS, INCLUDING THE CATSKILLS, MID
HUDSON VALLEY, NW CT AND THE BERKSHIRES FOR LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THESE ARE THE AREAS FAVORED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING, AS HIGH RAINFALL RATES MAY
LEAD TO FLOODING, ESPECIALLY WITHIN URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE
AREAS. ANY AREAS THAT SAW HIGH RAINFALL LAST WEEK CONTINUE TO
HAVE HIGH FLOWS AND WET SOILS, SO THESE AREAS ARE ALSO AT RISK
FOR RENEWED FLOODING IF ANY REPEATED ROUNDS OF RAINFALL OCCUR.
OVERALL, FLOODING APPEARS TO BE MAINLY ISOLATED TO SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE AND WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS EXTREME OR EXTENSIVE AS TO
WHAT OCCURRED LAST WEEK.
PRECIP WILL WIND DOWN ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE FRONT CROSSES
FROM WEST TO EAST. WITH A DRIER WESTERLY FLOW IN PLACE BEHIND
THE FRONT, DEWPOINTS WILL BE LOWERING FOR LATE MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
JUST AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT, A LINE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN AREAS
ON MONDAY DURING THE LATE MORNING TO EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
THERE LOOKS TO BE SUFFICIENT SHEAR TO SUPPORT SOME STRONG TO
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS, WITH 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR IN THE 35-40 KT
RANGE. IF ENOUGH BREAKS OF SUN OCCUR BEHIND THE MORNING STEADIER
RAINFALL AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT, THERE SHOULD BE ABOUT
1000-2000 J/KG OF SBCAPE IN VALLEY AREAS. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
THE RISK FOR A FEW STORMS TO PRODUCE WIND DAMAGE. SPC HAS A
MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR MUCH OF THE AREA OUTSIDE OF THE
ADIRONDACKS AND MOHAWK VALLEY FOR MONDAY.
AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
ALTHOUGH MUCH OF THE AREA IS CURRENTLY DRY WITH VFR CONDITIONS,
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE INCREASING IN
COVERAGE FOR TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE MAIN WINDOW
FOR PRECIP LOOKS TO BE ABOUT 03Z-12Z MONDAY, WITH WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS. SOME IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE
HEAVIER DOWNPOURS, WHICH WOULD MAINLY IMPACT VISIBILITY.
ALTHOUGH THE BULK OF THE PRECIP SHOULD BE DONE FOR THE TAF SITES
BY 12Z-13Z MONDAY MORNING, ANOTHER ROUND OF SHOWERS AND/OR
THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS.
SOUTHERLY WINDS HAVE BEEN AROUND 10 KTS THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. WINDS MAY DECREASE SLIGHTLY
FOR THIS EVENING AS RAINFALL INCREASES, BUT WILL STILL BE SOUTH
TO SOUTHWEST AROUND 5-10 KTS. WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY AND INCREASE TOWARDS MIDDAY AS THE FRONT
STARTS CROSSING THE AREA. GUSTY WESTERLY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK...
MONDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...27
AVIATION...27
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