279
FXUS61 KALY 031745
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
145 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
CHANCES FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH FLOODING WILL
DECREASE BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES EAST
ACROSS THE REGION. ADDED PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT ONCE WINDS
DIMINISH. LOWERED CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THERE IS A MARGINAL (LEVEL 1 OF 4) TO SLIGHT (LEVEL 2 OF 4)
FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL LEADING TO ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING THIS
AFTERNOON SOUTH/EAST OF ALBANY. THERE IS ALSO A MARGINAL RISK
(LEVEL 1 OF 5) FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN NEW
YORK INTO WESTERN NEW ENGLAND.
2) ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY
OCCUR, ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
COLD FRONT MOVING EAST ACROSS FAR EASTERN NY INTO WESTERN NEW
ENGLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON. A LOW-TOPPED LINE OF
CONVECTION DEVELOPED ALONG AND JUST EAST OF THE FRONT. GUSTY
WINDS OF MAINLY 40-50 MPH ARE EXPECTED, ALTHOUGH A FEW DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS CANNOT BE RULED OUT DUE TO STRONG WIND SHEAR. THERE
IS A LOW PROBABILITY (2-4%) OF A BRIEF/ISOLATED TORNADO MAINLY
IN THE N. BERKSHIRES INTO S. VERMONT WHERE EFFECTIVE HELICITY OF
HIGHEST. OTHERWISE, WIDELY SCATTERED FLASH FLOODING MAY OCCUR
WHERE THERE IS ANY TRAINING ESPECIALLY ACROSS AREAS THAT
RECEIVED HEAVY RAINFALL EARLY THIS MORNING SUCH AS IN
DUTCHESS/LITCHFIELD COUNTIES. THE THREAT FOR ANY SEVERE/FLASH
FLOODING WILL QUICKLY END BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON AROUND 4 PM AS
THE COLD FRONT MOVES EAST OUT OF OUR AREA.
IT WILL TURN BREEZY AND LESS HUMID BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, WITH
WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING 20-30 MPH INTO THE EVENING. WINDS WILL
SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT, WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING LATE.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TUE AND ALSO WED, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE
COMPARED TO TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A VERY
SMALL/COMPACT LOW MOVING ONSHORE NEAR SE NEW ENGLAND, BUT LATEST
TRENDS ARE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF OUR AREA.
BY THU, MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS A
PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
A BERMUDA HIGH. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S,
WITH PWAT ANOMALIES INCREASING TO +1 TO +2 STDEV. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING THROUGH THU
MORNING, AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED
NORTH/WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PUSH TO THE SOUTH
DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH. EVENTUALLY THE FRONT
SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH/EAST INTO OUR AREA LATER THU INTO FRI,
WHICH IS WHEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS INCREASE. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE/TIMING, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE STORM AND/OR FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. AI NWP CONVECTIVE
HAZARDS FORECAST SHOWS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
DURING THIS TIME. ALSO, WITH SUCH A HUMID/MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND
WET ANTECEDENT GROUND CONDITIONS, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A THREAT
OF AT LEAST ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
A COLD FRONT HAS MOVED THROUGH KGFL AND KALB THIS AFTERNOON
TRANSITIONING THE WINDS TO THE WEST AND BRINGING BREEZY
CONDITIONS THROUGH 04/00Z WITH GUSTS RANGING BETWEEN 20 AND 28
KNOTS. AFTER 04/00Z, WINDS DECREASE AND BECOME LESS THAN 15
KNOTS THROUGH 06Z WHEN THEY BECOME CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
TONIGHT. FOR KPSF AND KPOU, THE COLD FRONT IS ON THE WAY AND
ARRIVING BETWEEN NOW AND 20Z WITH RAIN SHOWERS AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS EXIST IN THESE RAIN SHOWERS
MENTIONED IN A TEMPO GROUP FOR KPSF THROUGH 20Z WHEN THE FRONT
SHOULD BE MOVED THROUGH. THEN WINDS INCREASE AND SHIFT TO THE
WEST THROUGH 04/00Z. FOR ALL TAF SITES, PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP
BETWEEN 04/09Z AND 04/12Z AS SKIES CLEAR TONIGHT, CALM WINDS,
AND RECENT RAINFALL MAKES CONDITIONS FAVORABLE FOR PATCHY FOG TO
DEVELOP. BRIEF IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR DURING THIS
TIMEFRAME AND HAS BEEN INTRODUCED IN TEMPO GROUPS. AFTER 04/12Z,
VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...05
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