491
FXUS61 KALY 032306
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
706 PM EDT MON AUG 3 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
THE THREAT FOR FLASH FLOODING AND THUNDERSTORMS HAS ENDED THANKS
TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
ADDED PATCHY FOG LATE TONIGHT ONCE WINDS DIMINISH. LOWERED
CHANCES FOR ANY SHOWERS ON WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
1) THE THREAT FOR STRONG STORMS AND FLASH FLOODING FOR TODAY HAS
ENDED DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT.
2) ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS THE NEXT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. SOME STRONGER STORMS MAY
OCCUR, ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
AS OF 7 PM MONDAY EVENING, SURFACE COLD FRONT HAS NOW PUSHED
EASTWARD INTO CENTRAL NEW ENGLAND. ALOFT, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
AXIS IS DIRECTLY OVER THE FORECAST AREA AND WILL BE QUICKLY
SHIFTING EASTWARD. BEHIND THIS DEPARTING STORM SYSTEM, ALL
PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA AND DRIER AIR
IS STARTING TO FILTER INTO THE REGION THANKS TO BREEZY WESTERLY
WINDS. SOME GUSTS ARE IN THE 20-30 MPH RANGE, ESPECIALLY WITHIN
THE CAPITAL REGION AND BERKSHIRES. DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY
FALLEN INTO THE LOWER 60S AND THEY WILL CONTINUE TO DROP INTO
THE 50S FOR TONIGHT. THE THREAT FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND FLASH
FLOODING HAS ENDED FOR TODAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE
COMFORTABLE FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, WITH LOWS IN THE 50S.
WINDS WILL SUBSIDE LATER TONIGHT, WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING
LATE, ESPECIALLY IN SHELTERED AREAS AND LOCATIONS THAT SAW
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
MORE TRANQUIL WEATHER IS EXPECTED FOR TUE AND ALSO WED, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL BE MORE COMFORTABLE
COMPARED TO TODAY. MODEL GUIDANCE IS INDICATING A VERY
SMALL/COMPACT LOW MOVING ONSHORE NEAR SE NEW ENGLAND, BUT LATEST
TRENDS ARE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO REMAIN SOUTH/EAST OF OUR AREA.
BY THU, MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN AS A
PERSISTENT SOUTH-SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
A BERMUDA HIGH. DEWPOINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S,
WITH PWAT ANOMALIES INCREASING TO +1 TO +2 STDEV. THERE DOES
APPEAR TO BE A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING THROUGH THU
MORNING, AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED
NORTH/WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PUSH TO THE SOUTH
DUE TO THE STRENGTHENING BERMUDA HIGH. EVENTUALLY THE FRONT
SHOULD SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH/EAST INTO OUR AREA LATER THU INTO FRI,
WHICH IS WHEN CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/T-STORMS INCREASE. DUE TO
UNCERTAINTY IN COVERAGE/TIMING, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
SEVERE STORM AND/OR FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL. AI NWP CONVECTIVE
HAZARDS FORECAST SHOWS AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS
DURING THIS TIME. ALSO, WITH SUCH A HUMID/MOIST ENVIRONMENT AND
WET ANTECEDENT GROUND CONDITIONS, THERE WILL LIKELY BE A THREAT
OF AT LEAST ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
ALTHOUGH SOME SCT-BKN CUMULUS CLOUDS ARE STILL AROUND THE REGION
AT 4-6 KFT, THESE CLOUDS WILL DECREASE FOR TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS
OF DAYTIME HEATING AND AS DRIER AIR MOVES INTO THE AREA. FLYING
CONDITIONS HAVE ALREADY BECOME VFR FOR ALL SITES AND MOST SITES
WILL BE SEEING CLEAR SKIES BY AROUND MIDNIGHT OR SO. WINDS ARE
STILL FAIRLY GUSTY FOR ALL SITES, WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 10-15
KTS AND SOME GUSTS IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE. HOWEVER, THESE WINDS
WILL BE DIMINISHING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, BECOMING WESTERLY
AROUND 5 KTS BY 02-03Z AND EVENTUALLY LIGHT TO CALM FOR THE LATE
NIGHT HOURS.
WITH THE DECREASING WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES, SOME PATCHY FOG
WILL DEVELOP FOR THE SHELTERED SITES FOR THE LATE NIGHT HOURS,
ESPECIALLY KGFL/KPSF. WITH THE RAINFALL EARLIER TODAY NEAR KPOU,
THIS COULD ALLOW FOR SOME FOG TO DEVELOP THERE AS WELL. HAVE
INCLUDED A TEMPO FOR IFR MIST/FOG FOR THOSE SITES AROUND
09Z-12Z. MEANWHILE, IT IS MORE UNCERTAIN FOR KALB, SO WON'T
INCLUDE IN THE TAF AT THIS TIME, BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
TRENDS IN THE WINDS AND DEWPOINTS AND WILL RE-ASSESS FOR THE
NEXT TAF ISSUANCE.
ANY FOG/MIST SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND DAYBREAK. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR VFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL DAY ON TUESDAY FOR ALL SITES WITH
NEARLY CLEAR SKIES THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY. LIGHT WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOP AROUND 5 KTS FOR ALL SITES BY THE
MID-MORNING HOURS AND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE ENTIRE DAY.
OUTLOOK...
TUESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. PATCHY FG.
WEDNESDAY: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. DEFINITE SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07/27
AVIATION...27
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page