497
FXUS61 KALY 041751
AFDALY
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ALBANY NY
151 PM EDT TUE AUG 4 2026
WHAT HAS CHANGED
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WITH THIS FORECAST UPDATE.
KEY MESSAGES
1) CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INCREASE THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, GREATEST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. SOME STRONGER
STORMS MAY OCCUR, ALONG WITH LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.
2) INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ALSO RETURNS THURSDAY INTO
FRIDAY, WHICH MAY RESULT IN HEAT RELATED IMPACTS, MAINLY IN THE
MID HUDSON VALLEY.
DISCUSSION
KEY MESSAGE 1...
DEEP LAYER MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE THU INTO FRI, AS
A SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A BERMUDA
HIGH. DEWPOINTS STILL EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 70S, WITH PWAT
ANOMALIES INCREASING TO +1 TO +2 STDEV. CONVECTION WILL BE MOST
LIKELY DURING THE DIURNALLY FAVORED AFTERNOON TO EARLY EVENING
HOURS. THERE LOOKS TO BE A LACK OF SYNOPTIC SCALE FORCING MUCH
OF THE TIME, AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE POSITIONED
NORTH/WEST OF LAKE ONTARIO WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PUSH TO THE SOUTH
DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE BERMUDA HIGH. SO HAVE LOWERED NBM
POPS TO CAP VALUES AT 60-70% BOTH DAYS. THU/FRI WILL LIKELY NOT
BE WASHOUTS, ALTHOUGH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS/T-STORM
SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON. CAPE/SHEAR MAGNITUDES COMBINED
WITH SUBTLE FORCING LOOK SOMEWHAT MODEST FOR WIDESPREAD SEVERE
STORMS, ALTHOUGH A STRONG/SEVERE STORM OR TWO CANNOT BE RULED
OUT. AI NWP CONVECTIVE HAZARDS FORECAST CONTINUES TO SHOW SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORMS THU/FRI. ALSO WITH A HUMID/MOIST
ENVIRONMENT AND WET ANTECEDENT GROUND CONDITIONS IN PLACE, THERE
IS THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED FLASH FLOODING WHERE PERSISTENT
OR REPEATED DOWNPOURS OCCUR. THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK (LEVEL 1
OF 4) OF EXCESSIVE RAINFALL BOTH DAYS.
THE FRONT MAY FINALLY START TO SETTLE SOUTH/EAST ACROSS THE
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND ALTHOUGH IT MAY WASH OUT BY SUN. SO THERE
LOOKS TO BE NO DISCERNIBLE CHANGE IN THE MOIST/HUMID AIR MASS,
WITH THE BETTER LIKELIHOOD OF SHOWERS/T-STORMS ON SAT COMPARED
TO SUN.
KEY MESSAGE 2...
WITH OUR AREA POSITIONED ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH, INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY ARE EXPECTED THU INTO
FRI. ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 90F,
DEWPOINTS RISING INTO THE LOWER/MID 70S WILL STILL RESULT IN
HEAT INDICES(FEELS-LIKE TEMPERATURES) IN THE MID TO PERHAPS
UPPER 90S IN VALLEY AREAS SOUTH OF ALBANY. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY
EVENTUALLY BE NEEDED FOR PARTS OF THE MID HUDSON VALLEY IF
CONFIDENCE IN > 95F HEAT INDICES INCREASES.
AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH 05/06Z FOR ALL TAF SITES.
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z, PATCHY FOG COULD DEVELOP AS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE DURING THIS TIMEFRAME FOR ALL TAF SITES AND HAVE BEEN
INTRODUCED IN TEMPO GROUPS. A FLUCTUATION OF MVFR/IFR/LIFR
CONDITIONS CAN OCCUR DUE TO PATCHY FOG THROUGH 12Z, WHEN VFR
CONDITIONS RETURN TO ALL TAF SITES AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE END
OF THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE AT
KGFL AND KPOU. AT KALB AND KPSF THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON,
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO RANGE BETWEEN 5 AND 10 KNOTS.
THEN AFTER 05/00Z, WINDS BECOME CALM FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
OUTLOOK...
WEDNESDAY NIGHT: NO OPERATIONAL IMPACT. NO SIG WX.
THURSDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
THURSDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
FRIDAY NIGHT: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY: HIGH OPERATIONAL IMPACT. LIKELY SHRA...TSRA.
SATURDAY NIGHT: LOW OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA.
SUNDAY: MODERATE OPERATIONAL IMPACT. SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHRA...TSRA.
ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CT...NONE.
NY...NONE.
MA...NONE.
VT...NONE.
DISCUSSION...07
AVIATION...05
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